At present, the ttm-pe36 times (wind health care index) of the pharmaceutical and biological industry is 195% higher than the valuation premium rate of CSI 300, which is 64% higher than the 22 times of the most underestimated value in history (20190131); Compared with the CSI 300 index, the valuation premium is 195%, 95% higher than that of 20190131. The industry is polarized between overvalued and undervalued values.
The epidemic sector pays attention to domestic covid-19 oral drugs, sequential mRNA vaccination and cdmo industrial chain
With the development of the epidemic situation, we believe that it is difficult to clear dynamically nationwide. The Omicron virus has fast transmission speed and strong secrecy. Recently, the severe management and control policies of people flow and logistics around the country have begun to show their harm to the economy. The country will strive for economic growth of 5.5% this year. Infrastructure and real estate are on the one hand, and promoting domestic demand is also an important starting point. Under the overall situation of stabilizing economic growth, the epidemic control policy will also usher in changes in due course. For example, the 14 + 7 isolation policy becomes the 10 + 7 isolation policy, which is only the beginning. In the future, it may become clear whether the identification standard of close contacts and home isolation are feasible. At present, coexistence is also undesirable. The death toll in Britain reached a new high in March, and the medical run in Hong Kong, China is also a mirror. After the complete liberalization, the high infectivity will affect hundreds of millions of people, and the run on medical resources is not feasible. In short, to hinder the speed of virus transmission, including the application of large-scale antigen self-examination and other means. We should speed up the R & D and marketing of domestic covid-19 oral drugs, sequential vaccination, especially the development of new mRNA vaccines, and restore economic activities at less cost.
Affected by the epidemic, the valuation of consumer medicine is near the bottom of history and will step out of the bull trend
The sub sectors with low value and low position mainly include the sub sectors under the high pressure of medical insurance policy, innovative drugs and consumer medical care. The valuation of the sector under the high pressure of medical insurance is very low, but the valuation elasticity is small and there is no new growth momentum. In China’s innovative drugs and cro industry, with the significant adjustment of Hong Kong stock biotech, high-quality companies in the industry have gradually shown their configuration value, but they may stay at the bottom for a long time. The main reason is that they are greatly affected by China’s new drug review policy and medical insurance negotiation policy, and the impact of the significant adjustment of the secondary market on the investment and financing of the primary market is still being transmitted. For the consumer medical industry, we believe that this round of falling valuation may have seen the bottom of history. The reason for the decline is still the impact of China’s epidemic on short-term consumption power. We firmly believe that this impact is short-lived. Similarly, consumption is the sector least affected by foreign austerity policies. It is the undervalued sector of deterministic growth and has the ability to cross the bull and bear.
Focus on the company
Covid-19 oral medicine and cdmo sector: Shanghai Junshi Biosciences Co.Ltd(688180) , Shandong Jincheng Pharmaceutical Group Co.Ltd(300233) , Zhejiang Jiuzhou Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(603456) , etc; Sequential vaccination: Walvax Biotechnology Co.Ltd(300142) and Shanghai Fosun Pharmaceutical (Group) Co.Ltd(600196) etc; Medical services: Aier Eye Hospital Group Co.Ltd(300015) , Hangzhou Tigermed Consulting Co.Ltd(300347) , Topchoice Medical Co.Inc(600763) , Xiangyumedicalco.Ltd(688626) and Nanjing Vishee Medical Technology Co.Ltd(688580) etc; Medical consumer goods: Huadong Medicine Co.Ltd(000963) , Eyebright Medical Technology(Beijing) Co.Ltd(688050) , Yantai Zhenghai Bio-Tech Co.Ltd(300653) , Chengdu Kanghua Biological Products Co.Ltd(300841) , Jiangsu Yuyue Medical Equipment And Supply Co.Ltd(002223) , Bloomage Biotechnology Corporation Limited(688363) , Autek China Inc(300595) , etc; Traditional Chinese medicine consumer goods: Beijing Tongrentang Co.Ltd(600085) , Tianjin Zhongxin Pharmaceutical Group Corporation Limited(600329) , China Resources Sanjiu Medical & Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(000999) , Inner Mongolia Furui Medical Science Co.Ltd(300049) , Mayinglong Pharmaceutical Group Co.Ltd(600993) , Jianmin Pharmaceutical Group Co.Ltd(600976) , Zhejiang Shouxiangu Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(603896) , Zhejiang Jolly Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(300181) , etc; Traditional Chinese medicine innovation and formula granules: Shijiazhuang Yiling Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(002603) , Hubei Jumpcan Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(600566) , Tianjin Chase Sun Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(300026) , Guiyang Xintian Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(002873) , etc; Innovative drugs: Shiyao group, Shenzhen Salubris Pharmaceuticals Co.Ltd(002294) , Yifan Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(002019) , Haichuang pharmaceutical and Chengdu Easton Bio Pharmaceuticals Co.Ltd(688513) etc; Import substitution of medical devices: Sonoscape Medical Corp(300633) , Qingdao Novelbeam Technology Co.Ltd(688677) , Aohua endoscopy; Medicine and machinery going to sea: Shenzhen Mindray Bio-Medical Electronics Co.Ltd(300760) , Jiangsu Hengrui Medicine Co.Ltd(600276) , Tofflon Science And Technology Group Co.Ltd(300171) , Truking Technology Limited(300358) and Shenzhen New Industries Biomedical Engineering Co.Ltd(300832) etc. (in no order)
Risk tips: the risk of uncertainty in China’s epidemic process, the risk of drastic changes in the international environment, etc
