Core view
This week's special topic: the market pattern of medium and high-end down jacket is better, and the rise of national tide provides opportunities: (1) price drives industry growth, and there is more room for penetration improvement. In 2020, China's down jacket market will exceed 130 billion yuan. Influenced by the entry of international luxury brands and the upgrading of consumption, the acceptance of medium and high-end down clothes has increased, and fashion has become an important demand. Compared with developed countries, China's down jacket penetration rate is low and there is more room for growth. (2) The market structure of medium and high-end down jacket is better, which provides opportunities for the rise of national tide. The high-end down jacket Market is occupied by international brands; Fierce competition in the low-end market and industry clearing; The medium and high-end market pattern is better. In recent years, the rise of the national tide has provided development opportunities for domestic brands, improved the efficiency of the reform of industry leaders, and achieved remarkable results in product power, channel structure and supply chain quick reaction. It is recommended to pay attention to Bosideng, Anta sports, Li Ning, etc.
Investment strategy in 2022: seek "progress" in "change" and take the lead in subdividing leaders. Furniture: focus on domestic market channel reform opportunities. Among them, it is suggested to pay attention to Oppein Home Group Inc(603833) , Suofeiya Home Collection Co.Ltd(002572) , Zbom Home Collection Co.Ltd(603801) , Goldenhome Living Co.Ltd(603180) ; It is suggested to pay attention to Jason Furniture (Hangzhou) Co.Ltd(603816) , Qumei Home Furnishings Group Co.Ltd(603818) etc. in the finished furniture sector. Papermaking, packaging and printing: subdivide the track pattern and optimize the strong. It is suggested to pay attention to Shandong Sun Paper Co.Ltd(002078) , Shanying International Holdings Co.Ltd(600567) , Xianhe Co.Ltd(603733) , Quzhou Wuzhou Special Paper Co.Ltd(605007) , Chongqing Baiya Sanitary Products Co.Ltd(003006) , Hangzhou Haoyue Personal Care Co.Ltd(605009) , etc. Entertainment and jewelry sector: the consumption upgrading continues and the prosperity rises. It is suggested to pay attention to Shanghai M&G Stationery Inc(603899) and Chow Tai Seng Jewellery Company Limited(002867) etc. Retail of home building materials: professional home building materials stores are still dominant, and digital and high-frequency consumption empowerment have become the mainstream. Suggestions for digital transformation. Textile and clothing: the trend of national fashion continues, and there are good opportunities for sports shoes and children's wear. It is suggested to pay attention to Anta sports, Huali Industrial Group Company Limited(300979) , Zhejiang Semir Garment Co.Ltd(002563) , Winner Medical Co.Ltd(300888) , Bosideng, etc.
Market review this week: this week, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 1.25%, and the light industry manufacturing industry fell 2.62%, slightly underperforming the market. The textile and garment industry fell 3.47%, underperforming the market. Among them, the paper sector fell 3.24%, the packaging and printing sector fell 4.93%, the home sector fell 0.02%, the entertainment light industry sector fell 2.02%, and other light industry sectors fell 5.44%; The textile manufacturing sector fell 3.9%, and the clothing and home textile sector fell 2.61%. The top three gainers of light manufacturing industry this week were Oppein Home Group Inc(603833) (7.93%), Fujian Ideal Jewellery Industrial Co.Ltd(002740) (6.55%), panda financial holding (5.9%), and the top three gainers were A-Zenith Home Furnishings Co.Ltd(603389) (- 20.62%), Guangdong Enpack Packaging Co.Ltd(002846) (- 19.54%) and Xiamen Anne Co.Ltd(002235) (- 17.01%). This week, the top three increases in the textile and garment industry were Comefly Outdoor Co.Ltd(603908) (19.22%), St Tianshou (10.14%), Li Ning (5.79%), and the top three decreases were Saturday Co.Ltd(002291) (- 15.8%), Xinlong Holding (Group) Company Ltd(000955) (- 9.64%) and hinur (- 9.38%).
One week key data tracking: the price of dissolved pulp in this week is 8200 yuan / ton, unchanged from last week. Whiteboard / double offset paper increased by 12 / 100 yuan / ton to 4897 / 6200 yuan / ton compared with last week, and the prices of other kinds of paper were flat. The number of commercial housing transactions in 30 large and medium-sized cities this week was 14392, down 40% from last week; This week, the transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium-sized cities was 1.45 million square meters, down 43% from last week. Spot cotton: this week, China's cotton price index: 328 was 22554 yuan / ton, down 197 yuan / ton from last week; Cotlook: a index: 1% tariff is 24960 yuan / ton, up 1525 yuan / ton compared with last week; The price difference between Chinese and foreign cotton was - 2406 yuan / ton, down 1722 yuan / ton from last week; Cotton futures: the closing price of cotton futures on Zheng stock exchange this week was 21550 yuan / ton, down 55 yuan / ton from last week; The closing price of cotton futures on the New York Stock Exchange was 142.17 cents / pound, up 9.72 cents / pound from last week.
Risk warning: the price of raw materials fluctuates sharply; Risk of sluggish terminal demand; Exchange rate fluctuation risk.
