Focus on Zhejiang Huatong Meat Products Co.Ltd(002840) , Fujian Sunner Development Co.Ltd(002299) , Muyuan Foods Co.Ltd(002714) and seed industry sectors. 1) Pig: don’t care about emotional fluctuations, continue to be optimistic about the cycle reversal logic. From the perspective of sales price, the pig price in 2022 belongs to the bottom grinding stage of the cycle, and the rebound height of pig price in the second half of the year is lower than expected, which should be a high probability event. From the perspective of cost, the global bulk Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) will be at an all-time high in 2022, and the grain price is expected to reach a new high in the second half of the year. Therefore, the current pig breeding industry has been squeezed by both downstream and upstream. The cash loss rate of the industry is unprecedented. It continues to maintain the judgment that the production capacity will be cleared in the first half of 2023. 2022 is the best layout window. Core recommendations: Zhejiang Huatong Meat Products Co.Ltd(002840) and Muyuan Foods Co.Ltd(002714) . 2) White chicken: the short-term capacity has been greatly reduced, and we are optimistic about the valuation and repair logic of white horse shares. In 2022, under the pressure of low price and high cost, the white chicken industry suffered the most losses in history. According to our prediction, the stock clearing of breeding birds in the industry accelerated in March. The reason is that the industry eliminated breeding birds in advance under the deep loss of the industry (50-55 weeks old is eliminated, and it can be used to 75 weeks old normally). In addition, the sales volume of chicken seedlings decreased significantly in March, with a decline rate of nearly 30%. Therefore, we judge that the prices of relevant products are expected to rebound in mid and late April. Considering the large scale of capacity removal and the rapid repair of price, we are optimistic about the valuation repair of the industry, especially the valuation repair of Baima shares. We recommend: Fujian Sunner Development Co.Ltd(002299) . 3) Seed industry: genetically modified varieties are expected to be launched in 2022. Pay attention to relevant beneficiary targets. In 2022, the seed industry continues to be optimistic about the resonance between cycle and growth. In terms of cycle, the bulk Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) boom continued to rise, and the seed industry continued to benefit from profit cashing as a post cycle. In terms of growth, we are optimistic about China’s reasonable, orderly and safe promotion of the landing of genetically modified seeds under the background of the global potential food security crisis, the substantive promotion of the variety end in 2022, and the relevant head benefit targets. Key recommendations: Yuan Longping High-Tech Agriculture Co.Ltd(000998) , Shandong Denghai Seeds Co.Ltd(002041) and Beijing Dabeinong Technology Group Co.Ltd(002385) . The overall investment view of agriculture is as follows. It is optimistic about breeding and seed industry from top to bottom. Among them, 1) recommendations for pig breeding include: 1) recommendations for pig breeding: Hongda Xingye Co.Ltd(002002) 840 the; 2) Recommended by seed industry Yuan Longping High-Tech Agriculture Co.Ltd(000998) , Shandong Denghai Seeds Co.Ltd(002041) , Beijing Dabeinong Technology Group Co.Ltd(002385) ; 3) Recommended for poultry sector: Jiangsu Lihua Animal Husbandry Co.Ltd(300761) , Hunan Xiangjia Animal Husbandry Company Limited(002982) ; It is suggested to pay attention to the targets of white chicken: Springsnow Food Group Co.Ltd(605567) , Fujian Sunner Development Co.Ltd(002299) , Shandong Yisheng Livestock & Poultry Breeding Co.Ltd(002458) , Shandong Xiantan Co.Ltd(002746) .
Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) price tracking:
Live pigs: on April 15, the national average price of piglets was 25.14 yuan / kg, up 3.46% from the same period last week.; The average price of three yuan pigs abroad was 12.68 yuan / kg, up 3.17% from the same period last week.
Poultry: on April 15, the price of white feather broiler was 8.89 yuan / kg, up 3.86% from the same period last week. According to the statistics of xinmu.com, the average price of medium speed chicken on April 15 was 6.69 yuan / kg, down 2.19% from the same period last week.
Soybean: China’s spot soybean price remained high this week, reaching 568895 yuan / ton on April 15.
Corn: the purchase price of corn this week was slightly adjusted at a high level, which was 276206 yuan / ton on April 15.
Risk warning: uncertainty risk caused by bad weather; Potential risks caused by uncontrollable animal outbreaks.
