Energy supply concerns + high inflation support prices industrial metal inventories continued to decline
European energy supply concerns and high inflation expectations are still the main supporting factors for the current industrial metal prices. EU countries have agreed to ban the import of Russian coal, and the inflation levels in Europe and the United States were at a high level in March, and the metal prices may continue to fluctuate at a high level. Meanwhile, some metal inventories continued to decline. Taking Lun zinc as an example, inventories continued to decline by 8.02% this week, about 10075 tons. LME copper rose 0.08% this week to close at US $10332 / ton; LME aluminum fell – 2.24% to close at US $3299 / ton; LME lead rose 2.23% to close at US $2448 / ton; LME zinc rose 4.11% to close at US $4429.5/ton; LME tin fell – 0.71% to close at US $43400 / ton; LME nickel fell – 2.1% to close at US $33145 / ton. It is suggested to pay attention to Yunnan Copper Co.Ltd(000878) , Tongling Nonferrous Metals Group Co.Ltd(000630) , Zijin Mining Group Company Limited(601899) , Henan Shenhuo Coal&Power Co.Ltd(000933) , Yunnan Aluminium Co.Ltd(000807) .
Affected by the epidemic, the demand for lithium and cobalt is cold, and new energy vehicles are improving for a long time
The outbreak has a great impact on the new energy industry chain. SAIC Volkswagen, Tesla Shanghai plant and Weilai and other auto enterprises have successively announced shutdown, and some battery factories are also limited in production. Affected by this, the demand for lithium and cobalt is relatively cold. Battery grade lithium carbonate continued to decline this week, exceeding 500000 yuan / ton to 475000 yuan / ton, and cobalt sulfate fell – 0.84% to 117500 yuan / ton. Under various adverse factors, the sales of new energy vehicles are still gratifying. In March, 465000 and 484000 vehicles were produced and sold respectively, an increase of 1.1 times year-on-year, and the market penetration has reached 21.7%; At the same time, according to the deployment of the national standing committee, automobile consumption is expected to become a major breakthrough in promoting consumption, and the new energy automobile industry will improve for a long time. It is recommended to pay attention to Tianqi Lithium Corporation(002466) , Ganfeng Lithium Co.Ltd(002460) , Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co.Ltd(603799) , Chengtun Mining Group Co.Ltd(600711) .
Poor logistics under the epidemic may alleviate the demand for industrial metals, which is expected to recover
Logistics transportation is the main factor affecting supply and demand at present. The purchase of raw materials and the delivery of products from downstream metal processing enterprises are affected, resulting in the decline of operating rate and weak demand; Both the Ministry of communications and the Ministry of industry and information technology have issued notices to ensure smooth logistics and stable supply chain. With the improvement of the epidemic situation, the downstream consumption of industrial metals is expected to recover. At the same time, the Ministry of finance requires to speed up the issuance of special bonds, infrastructure and real estate investment is expected to accelerate, and industrial metal consumption may benefit. Copper in the previous period of this week rose 1.97% to close at US $74550 / ton; Aluminum rose 0.25% to close at US $21745 / ton; Lead fell – 0.39% to close at US $15425 / ton; Zinc rose 4.68% to close at US $28170 / ton; Tin rose 0.47% to close at US $337220 / ton; Nickel rose 5.56% to close at US $228100 / ton. It is recommended to pay attention to Shandong Nanshan Aluminium Co.Ltd(600219) , Tongling Nonferrous Metals Group Co.Ltd(000630) , Jiangxi Copper Company Limited(600362) , Yunnan Aluminium Co.Ltd(000807) , etc.
European and American inflation continued to rise, and gold prices rose strongly
The conflict between Russia and Ukraine worsened inflation in the eurozone. In March, HICP increased by 7.5% year-on-year and 2.5% month on month, at a historically high level; In March, the CPI of the United States increased by 8.5% year-on-year and 1.3% month on month, reaching a new high since 1981. At the same time, the annual rate of PPI in the United States was 11.2%, the largest increase in 12 years. Affected by this, gold prices showed strong performance this week. London spot gold rose 1.41% to close at US $197440/oz, the US dollar index rose 0.68% to close at 100.52, and Comex gold rose 1.62% to close at US $197490/oz. At present, inflation concerns and geopolitics are still the main factors affecting gold prices, and gold prices may continue to fluctuate upward in the near future.
Risk tips: geographical conflicts, blocked demand recovery and repeated epidemics.
