Key investment points:
Market review. As of April 15, 2022, Shenwan nonferrous metals industry fell by 2.94% this week, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.94 percentage points, ranking 18th among Shenwan 31 industries; Shenwan nonferrous metals industry fell 3.42% this month, 2.62 percentage points lower than the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index, ranking 18th among Shenwan 31 industries; Shenwan nonferrous metals sector has fallen 11.72% year to date, outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index by 3.49 percentage points and ranking 11th among Shenwan 31 industries.
As of April 15, 2022, among the sub sectors of the non-ferrous metal industry this week, the industrial metal sector rose by 0.34%, the precious metal sector fell by 1.58%, the small metal sector fell by 3.30%, the new metal materials sector fell by 5.47%, and the energy metal sector fell by 8.09%.
Zhou's view on the nonferrous metals industry. Industrial metals. Recently, affected by the epidemic situation in China and the continuous fermentation of geographical situation, the tension at the supply side of industrial metals remains, and the downstream demand is restrained. In the future, with the mitigation of the epidemic situation in China and the arrival of seasonal consumption of copper and aluminum, the demand is expected to increase rapidly. Copper and aluminum inventories outside China remained low, and copper and aluminum prices remained high and volatile this week under the continuous disturbance of multiple factors. It is suggested to pay attention to Yunnan Aluminium Co.Ltd(000807) ( Yunnan Aluminium Co.Ltd(000807) ), Henan Shenhuo Coal&Power Co.Ltd(000933) ( Henan Shenhuo Coal&Power Co.Ltd(000933) ), Henan Mingtai Al.Industrial Co.Ltd(601677) ( Henan Mingtai Al.Industrial Co.Ltd(601677) ), Guangdong Jiayuan Technology Co.Ltd(688388) ( Guangdong Jiayuan Technology Co.Ltd(688388) ). noble metal. On April 12, according to the data of the U.S. Department of labor, the annual rate of CPI in the United States without quarterly adjustment in March exceeded 8%, recording 8.5%, the highest in 40 years. The monthly CPI rate of the United States after the quarter adjustment in March recorded 1.2%, a new high since October 2005, and the Comex gold price immediately exceeded US $1970 / ton. On April 13, fed governor brennard said that the Fed would take "rapid" action to raise interest rates to bring soaring inflation back to the target level of 2%. Geopolitical tensions intensified this week. In the middle of the week, the data of the U.S. Department of labor showed that the U.S. economic data were positive and continued to push up the price of gold. However, the hawkish speeches of many Fed officials mean that the Fed will curb high inflation through tougher tightening policies, and the rising trend of gold prices will be under pressure in the future. It is suggested to pay attention to Shandong Gold Mining Co.Ltd(600547) ( Shandong Gold Mining Co.Ltd(600547) ), Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining Co.Ltd(600988) ( Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining Co.Ltd(600988) ), Zijin Mining Group Company Limited(601899) ( Zijin Mining Group Company Limited(601899) ). Energy metals. The average price of battery grade lithium carbonate this week was 485000 yuan / ton, slightly lower than that of last week; The average price of industrial grade lithium carbonate was 460000 yuan / ton, which was the same as that of last week; The average price of lithium hydroxide was 486000 yuan / ton, which was the same as that of last week. It is suggested to pay attention to Chengxin Lithium Group Co.Ltd(002240) ( Chengxin Lithium Group Co.Ltd(002240) ), Ganfeng Lithium Co.Ltd(002460) ( Ganfeng Lithium Co.Ltd(002460) ), Tibet Summit Resources Co.Ltd(600338) ( Tibet Summit Resources Co.Ltd(600338) ).
Risk tip: macroeconomic growth is less than expected; The monetary policy tightening of the Federal Reserve and the European central bank exceeded expectations; The prices of energy metals and rare earths fell sharply; The downstream demand of nonferrous metals is lower than expected; The impact of the uncertainty of the situation in Russia and Ukraine on the fluctuation of industrial metal prices.
