Core view
The national development and Reform Commission held a press conference and the stable growth of infrastructure is expected to continue. On April 15, the national development and Reform Commission held a press conference to convey several major messages: 1.22q1 investment is expected to grow steadily, and some areas of transportation investment have made a good start this year. 2. The special debt of 3.65 trillion yuan in 22 + 1.2 trillion yuan issued by 21q4 will provide solid support for the infrastructure of the whole year. 3. The key areas for expanding effective investment are to carry out capital construction investment and the transformation of old urban communities in advance, of which 102 major projects in the 14th five year plan are important. On the same day, the central bank announced to cut the deposit reserve ratio of financial institutions by 0.25 PCT. We believe that the press conference of the national development and Reform Commission and the reduction of reserve requirements by the central bank are the confirmation signals of the current steady growth and acceleration of infrastructure. In the current environment of increasing downward pressure on the economy, infrastructure construction enterprises, especially infrastructure central enterprises, are still the main focus of credit easing. At present, the market pays high attention to the steady growth of infrastructure. The valuation of major central enterprises of infrastructure has also been significantly repaired since November 21. The market focuses on whether the steady growth of infrastructure is sustainable. We resumed the earnings of the infrastructure sector in the past 10 years. A round of infrastructure stimulus should follow the rotation of “policy release – capital easing – order growth – Performance fulfillment”; In fact, the contribution of the performance of listed companies to the stock price is far less than that of valuation fluctuations, and the start of valuation is earlier than any observable indicators such as special bonds, newly signed orders and the performance of listed companies. We believe that the start of the valuation comes from the market’s expectation of the government’s willingness to start infrastructure stimulus, which is closely related to the downward pressure on the economy. Therefore, PMI is a better synchronous indicator of the return of the infrastructure sector. Pmi49.5 in March 5%, continuing the downward trend since the end of the 21st century. Therefore, we believe that the current government’s willingness and ability to stabilize the growth of infrastructure will remain unchanged, and the valuation repair of the corresponding infrastructure sector will continue. Corresponding to the building materials industry, we believe that waterproofing, water reducing agent, cement and infrastructure have a high correlation with steady growth, and we suggest paying attention to the valuation and repair opportunities of relevant sectors.
Market review this week: this week (2022 / 04 / 112022 / 04 / 15), the building materials sector (CITIC) index rose by – 5.1%, compared with the excess return of CSI 300 was – 4.1%. Year to date, the yield of the building materials sector is – 12.2%, compared with the excess yield of CSI 300 is 3.0%. Last week, the yield of the preferred portfolio was – 3.9%, compared with the excess yield of the building materials index was 1.2%, and the cumulative yield / excess yield was – 14.3 / 13.0%.
Overview of weekly data of building materials: the average price of float glass in China this week was 103.89 yuan / weight box, with a year-on-year decrease of 0.3% / 11.2%; The inventory was 59.58 million weight boxes, up 4.3% / 129.9% year-on-year. Under the dual influence of the epidemic and demand, glass remains weak. This week, the average price of national mainstream winding direct yarn is 6300 yuan / ton, unchanged month on month; The average price of electronic yarn was 8863 yuan / ton, unchanged month on month. Glass fiber still maintains a tight balance between supply and demand. The average transaction price of the national cement market this week was 510 yuan / ton, up 0.2% month on month. This week, the cement delivery rate rose 1.5pct to 61.1% month on month; The storage capacity ratio was 63.3%, with a month on month decrease of 0.2pct. The current nationwide epidemic has a certain impact on the construction industry, resulting in weak data performance of shipment and storage capacity ratio.
Investment proposal and investment object
Optimistic about photovoltaic / electronic glass sector, recommend Csg Holding Co.Ltd(000012) ( Csg Holding Co.Ltd(000012) , buy); We recommend Sobute New Materials Co.Ltd(603916) ( Sobute New Materials Co.Ltd(603916) , buy); In the cement section, it is suggested to pay attention to Huaxin Cement Co.Ltd(600801) ( Huaxin Cement Co.Ltd(600801) , not rated) and Anhui Conch Cement Company Limited(600585) ( Anhui Conch Cement Company Limited(600585) , overweight) under the background of infrastructure overweight / expected improvement of real estate policy. Long term optimistic about waterproof faucet Beijing Oriental Yuhong Waterproof Technology Co.Ltd(002271) ( Beijing Oriental Yuhong Waterproof Technology Co.Ltd(002271) , buy). In addition, recommend Triumph Science & Technology Co.Ltd(600552) ( Triumph Science & Technology Co.Ltd(600552) , buy) of new materials and UTG sector which is expected to grow rapidly. Preferred combination for next week: Csg Holding Co.Ltd(000012) , Sobute New Materials Co.Ltd(603916) , Beijing Oriental Yuhong Waterproof Technology Co.Ltd(002271) , Anhui Conch Cement Company Limited(600585) , Huaxin Cement Co.Ltd(600801) , Triumph Science & Technology Co.Ltd(600552)
Risk tip: the growth rate of infrastructure / real estate investment does not meet expectations, and the price of raw materials fluctuates sharply
