Key points
In March, the total social consumption decreased by 3.5% year-on-year, and the growth rate decreased by 10.2 percentage points compared with the previous month
On April 18, the National Bureau of statistics released social consumption data: the total retail sales of social consumer goods in March 2022 was 3.42 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 3.5%, lower than the consensus expectation of the wind market (a year-on-year decrease of 0.83%), and the growth rate was 10.2 percentage points lower than that from January to February. Among them, the retail sales of enterprises (units) above the designated size was 1.29 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.4%, and the growth rate was 9.5 percentage points lower than that from January to February.
From January to March, the total retail sales of social consumer goods reached 10.87 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.3%, and the growth rate decreased by 30.6 percentage points over the same period of last year. (unless otherwise specified below, March refers to March 2022). The year-on-year growth rate of CPI increased by 0.6 PCT month on month, and the growth rate of retail sales of grain, oil and food increased by 4.6 PCT month on month. The year-on-year growth rate of national CPI in March 2022 was 1.5%, the year-on-year growth rate of national CPI in February 2022 was 0.9%, and the year-on-year growth rate of CPI increased by 0.6 percentage points month on month. In March, among the relevant categories of the supermarket industry, the retail sales of grain, oil and food increased by 12.5% year-on-year, 4.6 percentage points higher than that from January to February. Retail sales of beverages increased by 12.6% year-on-year, up 1.2 percentage points from January to February. Retail sales of daily necessities decreased by 0.8% year-on-year, with a growth rate of 11.5 percentage points lower than that from January to February.
The year-on-year growth rate of retail sales of textiles, clothing and cosmetics in the department store industry was impacted by the epidemic, with a sharp decline month on month
In March, among the relevant categories of the department store industry, the retail sales of textile and clothing decreased by 12.7% year-on-year, with a growth rate of 17.5 percentage points lower than that from January to February. The retail sales of cosmetics decreased by 6.3% year-on-year, with a growth rate of 13.3 percentage points lower than that from January to February. The decline in retail sales of textile and clothing is mainly due to the adverse impact of the epidemic on the passenger flow of offline stores and online logistics delivery. The decline in retail sales of cosmetics was mainly due to the weak overall consumer demand and the obstruction of online logistics delivery to a certain extent.
In March, the retail sales of gold and jewelry industry decreased by 17.9% year-on-year, and the growth rate decreased by 37.4pct3% compared with that from January to February. In the relevant categories of gold and jewelry industry, the retail sales of gold, silver and jewelry decreased by 17.9% year-on-year, and the growth rate decreased by 37.4 percentage points compared with that from January to February. The retail of gold and jewelry is more dependent on offline channels, so it is seriously affected by the epidemic.
The growth rate of retail sales of household appliances decreased, and the retail sales of household appliances and furniture increased negatively year-on-year
In March, among the real estate related categories, the retail sales of household appliances decreased by 4.3% year-on-year, with a growth rate of 17.0 percentage points lower than that from January to February. The retail sales of furniture decreased by 8.8% year-on-year, with a growth rate of 2.8 percentage points lower than that from January to February. The retail sales of construction and decoration materials increased by 0.4% year-on-year, down 5.8 percentage points from January to February. Household appliances, furniture and building materials showed weak performance in March, and the impact of the post real estate cycle is still continuing. In March, the retail sales of tobacco and alcohol increased by 7.2% year-on-year, down 6.4 percentage points from January to February. The retail sales of communication equipment increased by 3.1% year-on-year, down 1.7 percentage points from January to February. The retail sales of cultural office supplies increased by 9.8% year-on-year, down 1.3 percentage points from January to February.
The growth rate of social consumption was lower than the market expectation, and attention was paid to the recovery process of the epidemic
The growth rate of social consumption in March 2022 was lower than the market expectation, mainly due to the repeated epidemic situation in many places in March 2022, especially in Shanghai and other regions, which had a certain adverse impact on the passenger flow of offline stores and online logistics delivery. In view of the uncertain recovery process of the epidemic, we believe that the retail format may be under pressure in the short term, and we suggest paying attention to department store stocks with low valuation and high safety margin.
Risk tip: the negative impact of the epidemic exceeded expectations, the post real estate cycle affected the income growth of some sub industries, and the impact of channel reform on the existing business model was higher than expected.
