Weekly view:
The central bank lowered the deposit reserve ratio of financial institutions: on April 15, the central bank announced that it lowered the deposit reserve ratio of financial institutions by 0.25 percentage points on April 25 (excluding financial institutions that have implemented the 5% deposit reserve ratio), releasing a total of about 530 billion yuan of long-term funds.
RRR reduction is conducive to reducing the capital cost of financial institutions and promoting the reduction of comprehensive financing cost of real estate enterprises through transmission. We believe that the loose monetary policy and the optimization of centralized land supply rules can jointly boost the enthusiasm of real estate enterprises to acquire land and usher in a window period for steady operation of real estate enterprises.
Changsha completed the first batch of centralized land supply this year: on April 12, the first batch of centralized land supply in Changsha ended in 2022, and there was no first-class auction of 22 parcels of land. Among them, 19 plots were sold at the reserve price; Two circuit breakers and one premium transaction, with an overall premium rate of about 3%.
We believe that the warm-up of Changsha local auction this round is mainly due to the improvement of the profit space of the project. On the one hand, the total price of the furnace return plot is reduced; On the other hand, the price limit policy was relaxed, and six plots were adjusted from setting the maximum sales price limit to price supervision according to factors such as development quality.
We believe that there is no substantial improvement in the current total data, and the regulation policy is still dominated by a loose rhythm. At the same time, the marginal improvement of the operation quality and sales scale of some high-quality enterprises is obvious. Under this environment, we continue to recommend three main lines: 1) the dilemma reversal enterprises that benefit from the optimization of centralized land supply policy in the early stage: China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) ; 2) Leading real estate enterprises under the continuous improvement of competition pattern: Green City China, Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) ; 3) High rated steady operation private enterprises: Hangzhou Binjiang Real Estate Group Co.Ltd(002244) , Xuhui holding group.
Industry tracking
Sales review (04.09-04.15): the total transaction area of 33 key monitoring cities was 1.838 million m2, down 3.6% from last week; In 2022, a total of 44.3 million square meters were sold, with a cumulative year-on-year decrease of 43.9%. Among them, 245000 square meters were sold in first tier cities, an increase of 2.4% over last week. In 2022, a total of 8.363 million square meters were sold, a total decrease of 35.4% year-on-year; Second tier cities sold 1.111 million square meters, down 1.5% from last week. In 2022, a total of 22.099 million square meters were sold, down 32.1% year-on-year; The volume of transactions in the third tier cities was 482000 square meters, down 10.7% from last week. The cumulative volume of transactions in 2022 was 13.838 million square meters, down 58.6% year-on-year.
Land supply (04.04-04.10): the planned construction area of land and homestead supply in Baicheng is 2.03 million m2. In 2022, the cumulative supply of planned construction area is 111.84 million m2, with a cumulative year-on-year decrease of 55.2% and a supply-demand ratio of 1.55.
In terms of land listing price, the average listing floor price of land supplied by Baicheng is 2101 yuan / m2, and the average listing price in recent four weeks is 8095 yuan / m2, with a month on month increase of 1.5% and a year-on-year increase of 15.4%.
Land transaction (04.04-04.10): the planned construction area of residential land in Baicheng is 1.32 million square meters. In 2022, the cumulative transaction volume is 72.37 million square meters, with a cumulative year-on-year decrease of 63%.
In terms of land transaction floor price and premium rate, the average transaction floor price of residential land in Baicheng was 2356 yuan / m2, a month on month decrease of 69.2%, a year-on-year decrease of 54.3%, and the overall premium rate was 0.3%. In 2022, the average floor price was 4528 yuan / m2, a year-on-year decrease of 2.4%, and the premium rate was 3.6%, a decrease of 15 percentage points compared with the same period last year.
Risk warning event: the financing environment is tighter than expected; The regulatory policy was tightened more than expected.
