Industry core view:
2022.4.112022.4.15: this week, the decline of new power industry was – 7.37%, and that of Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 was – 0.99% in the same period, underperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index by 6.38pct. It ranks 31st among Shenwan’s 31 industry sectors.
New energy vehicles: according to the data of China Automobile Association, the production and sales of new energy vehicles in March reached 465000 and 484000 respectively, with a month on month growth of 25.4% and 43.9% respectively, and a year-on-year growth of 1.1 times. On April 13, the general office of Guangdong Provincial People’s government issued the “14th five year plan” for energy development in Guangdong Province, which put forward the requirements for accelerating the electrification of terminal energy consumption. The specific measures include accelerating the popularization and application of new energy vehicles; Accelerate the construction of electric vehicle charging and replacement facilities. By the end of 2025, the province will strive to build 4500 charging stations and 250000 public charging piles, forming a convenient, efficient and moderately advanced charging network system. The production and marketing performance of new energy vehicles is better than the overall situation of the industry. There is strong market demand and high policy attention. We are optimistic about the continuous improvement of the penetration rate of new energy vehicles. At the same time, in the future, the batteries equipped with high-end models will be mainly high nickel ternary, while the lithium iron phosphate batteries equipped with low-end models have the advantage of low price. It is suggested to pay attention to the relevant cathode targets.
New energy power generation: in terms of photovoltaic, the price of polycrystalline silicon in China continued to rise slightly this week, in which the average transaction price of single crystal re feeding, single crystal compact material and single crystal cauliflower material increased by about 0.3%; Tongwei Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) 4 adjusted the quotation of battery for the first time since April, and the quotation of single crystal perc battery 166 / 182 / 210 increased by 1.8% / 1.7% / 0.9% respectively. Negative factors such as short-term logistics have an impact on the photovoltaic industry chain, and the rise in the price of thyristor materials and batteries reflects the strong short-term demand. We expect a high increase in the installed capacity of photovoltaic in 2022, and we suggest paying attention to the relevant targets of the photovoltaic industry chain. In terms of wind power, according to the statistics of Fengmang energy, the lowest price of wind turbine has been refreshed to 1408 yuan / kW since the first quarter; A total of 6896.5mw onshore fans won the bid (candidate) in the first quarter. Among them, the lowest price / sub low price winning accounted for 49.3%, unknown accounted for 23.5%, and non lowest price / sub low price winning accounted for only 27.2%. We believe that the development trend of the wind power industry is good, and the cost reduction brought by technological progress is higher than expected. It is suggested to pay attention to the wind power equipment sector.
Hydrogen energy: the 14th five year plan for energy development of Guangdong province puts forward the requirement of building a highland for the development of hydrogen energy industry, which will accelerate the cultivation of a whole industrial chain of hydrogen production and storage, processing and transportation, fuel cell stack, key parts and power system integration; Form a fuel cell industry cluster in the core area of Guangzhou Shenzhen Foshan huandawan district. On April 12, the Beijing Municipal People’s government issued the urban management and development plan of Beijing during the 14th Five Year Plan period, which proposed to basically realize the replacement of pure electric or hydrogen fuel cell vehicles for environmental sanitation and construction waste transport vehicles by 2025, and proposed to build and operate 74 hydrogen refueling stations by 2025. The policy continues to make efforts, and the tone is “moderately advanced”, which will have a great impact on the hydrogen energy industry chain. Hydrogen energy has a large growth space in the future. It is suggested to pay attention to the relevant targets related to the hydrogen energy industry chain, such as Beijing Sinohytec Co.Ltd(688339) ( Beijing Sinohytec Co.Ltd(688339) ), Shanxi Meijin Energy Co.Ltd(000723) ( Shanxi Meijin Energy Co.Ltd(000723) ).
Risk factors: the sales volume of new energy vehicles is lower than expected; Safety risks of new energy vehicles; Affected by the epidemic, the opening of photovoltaic market was less than expected; Price fluctuation risk of raw materials; The approval and commencement of offshore wind power are not as expected; The wind power project has been approved and the grid connection is not as expected; The growth of photovoltaic installed capacity is less than
