Banking stocks: the industry index fell
From the Shenwan industry index, the banking index rose by – 0.21%, 2.78% and 4.49% this week, this month and year to date respectively, ranking 8th, 6th and 3rd among the 31 Shenwan industries.
On a weekly basis, the stock prices of Bank Of Chengdu Co.Ltd(601838) , Jiangsu Changshu Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(601128) and Bank Of Nanjing Co.Ltd(601009) rose by 5.89%, 3.91% and 2.85% respectively. Monthly, the stock prices of Bank Of Nanjing Co.Ltd(601009) , Jiangsu Suzhou Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(603323) and Jiangsu Changshu Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(601128) rose by 11.53%, 9.85% and 9.82% respectively. Since the beginning of the year to the beginning of the year since the beginning of the beginning of the year to the beginning of the year to the beginning of the year to the beginning of the beginning of the year to the beginning of the year to date, the ofthe ofthe ofthe following Bank Of Chengdu Co.Ltd(601838) Bank Of Communications Co.Ltd(601328) , China Citic Bank Corporation Limited(601998) , Postal Savings Bank Of China Co.Ltd(601658) and Bank Of Suzhou Co.Ltd(002966) achieved an increase of more than 10%.
Central bank operation and money market interest rate: net money supply
The total amount of money put in this week was 60 billion yuan, the total amount returned was 40 billion yuan, and the net money put in was 20 billion yuan, an increase of 590 billion yuan compared with last week. Since the beginning of the month, the currency has achieved a net return of 130 billion yuan.
On April 14, dr001 was 1.58%, a decrease of 21bps compared with last Friday. Dr007 was 1.97%, down 5bps from last Friday. The overnight lending rate was 1.62%, down 20bps from last Friday. The 7-day lending rate was 2.32%, up 17bps from last Friday.
Interbank deposit certificate issuing interest rate: the interbank deposit certificate issuing interest rate decreased
This week, the issuing interest rates of 1m, 3M and 6m interbank certificates of deposit decreased. On April 15, the issuing interest rates of 1m, 3M and 6m interbank certificates of deposit were 2.25%, 2.37% and 2.55% respectively, with changes of – 6bps, – 5bps and – 2bps respectively compared with last Friday.
China US Treasury bond yield: the term interest spread between China and the United States has expanded
This week, the yield of 1y treasury bonds decreased, the yield of 10Y treasury bonds increased, and the term interest spread expanded. The Treasury bond yields on Friday were – 2.4% and – 4.4% respectively, compared with that on Friday. The term spread was 0.74%, up 5bps from last Friday.
This week, the yields of 1y and 10Y US bonds increased, and the term spread widened. On April 14, the yields of 1y and 10Y US bonds were 1.84% and 2.83% respectively, with changes of + 3bps and + 11bps respectively compared with last Friday. The term spread was 0.99%, up 8bps from last Friday.
Us liquidity index: start of interest rate hike cycle
(1) on April 13, the US secured overnight financing interest rate was 0.29%, down 1bp from last Friday. (2) On April 13, the adjusted spread of US corporate bond options was 3.77%, an increase of 20bps compared with last Friday. (3) On April 14, the yield of US inflation index treasury bonds (TIPS) was – 0.06%, up 9bps from last Friday.
Investment advice
There are two strong supports for bank stocks:
First, the policy level strongly supports banks to improve the sustainable growth of bank driven loans. First, reduce the deposit reserve ratio by 0.25 percentage points, and the surplus deposit reserve can be used to support loans. Secondly, large banks are encouraged to reduce the provision coverage, which is conducive to the release of profits: the provision is a deduction item in the balance sheet, that is, the loan data in the balance sheet is net (total loan – provision), and the provision reduction is completed through the gradual decline of the expenditure item [credit impairment loss] in the income statement, which corresponds to the increase of residual income. That is, the current provision decreases, the profit increases, the residual income increases, the capital adequacy ratio increases, and the sustainability of loans increases.
Second, from the perspective of supplementary capital of listed banks. By the end of the first quarter, listed banks had issued capital financial bonds of up to 330 billion yuan (the total amount is 498.5 billion yuan of financial bonds, but the amount of general financial bonds is 170 billion yuan. This part is bonds payable, not used to supplement capital. After excluding, it is recorded that the amount that can be used to supplement all kinds of capital is 3300 yuan), According to the data calculation in 2021, the average capital leveraging loan coefficient of listed banks is 8, so 330 billion yuan corresponds to 2.6 trillion loans. What I want to add here is that the capital leverage coefficient is the amount of new loans brought by the increase of unit capital. The average value of this proportion of the whole listed banks in 2021 is 8.2, It is a new loan scale of 2.6 trillion. Therefore, from the perspective of bank capital, the supporting force of follow-up loan growth is also relatively strong.
Our long-standing recommendation is to avoid judging the total credit data and give a direct answer from the changes of credit structure and the micro incentives of banks: the policy supported microenterprises + personal loans + wealth management + asset quality is still the gold portfolio. Keep the recommendation order unchanged, Industrial Bank Co.Ltd(601166) , Bank Of Ningbo Co.Ltd(002142) , Bank Of Hangzhou Co.Ltd(600926) , China Merchants Bank Co.Ltd(600036) , Postal Savings Bank Of China Co.Ltd(601658) , Ping An Bank Co.Ltd(000001) .
Risk tips
The macro economy went down faster than expected.
