Market review:
Last week, the basic chemical industry index fell 5.20%, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index fell 0.99% in the same period, and the basic chemical industry index underperformed the market by 4.21 percentage points in the same period. The petroleum and petrochemical index fell 2.15%, underperforming the market by 1.16 percentage points in the same period. Among them, Shandong Haihua Co.Ltd(000822) (25.40%), Ningbo Tianlong Electronics Co.Ltd(603266) (18.24%), Cnsig Inner Mongolia Chemical Industry Co.Ltd(600328) (13.58%), Shanghai Chlor-Alkali Chemical Co.Ltd(600618) (13.07%), Jiangsu Suyan Jingshen Co.Ltd(603299) (12.40%) ranked among the top five; The companies with the top five declines were: Poly Union Chemical Holding Group Co.Ltd(002037) (- 33.31%), Lier Chemical Co.Ltd(002258) (- 32.92%), Hubei Forbon Technology Co.Ltd(300387) (- 23.08%), Shanghai Tianyang Hotmelt Adhesives Co.Ltd(603330) (- 21.13%) and Huarong chemical (- 20.15%).
Key investment points:
Phosphate fertilizer: last week, the price of ammonium phosphate remained high. As of April 15, the spot prices of monoammonium phosphate and diammonium phosphate were 362500 yuan / ton and 364000 yuan / ton respectively. On the supply side, the monoammonium and diammonium units in some areas are shut down for maintenance, and the production enterprises mainly complete the early orders. Enterprises in some areas suspend quotation and order receiving, and the industrial inventory is low. At present, the epidemic situation in many places in China is repeated, the logistics is blocked, and the spot circulation in the market is relatively tight. On the demand side, the fertilizer for spring ploughing in some areas is coming to an end, and downstream manufacturers are mainly just in need of procurement. In addition, due to the influence of logistics and high prices, there is a strong wait-and-see atmosphere in the market. In terms of raw materials, the prices of sulfur, synthetic ammonia and phosphate rock are still high, which has a strong support for the high price of ammonium phosphate. Overseas, according to the data of Baichuan Yingfu, as of April 15, the FOB bulk price of 55% particles of monoammonium phosphate in Morocco was US $1266.5/ton, and the FOB bulk price of diammonium phosphate in Morocco was US $1237 / ton. It is expected that the price of phosphate fertilizer at home and abroad will remain high in the short term. It is suggested to pay attention to relevant leading enterprises.
Glyphosate: ammonium glyphosate prices increased rapidly last week. According to the data of Baichuan Yingfu, as of April 15, some manufacturers of 95% glyphosate raw powder quoted 220000 yuan / ton, the mainstream transaction reference was raised to 19 Shenzhen Cereals Holdings Co.Ltd(000019) 5000 yuan / ton, the individual high-end transaction price was 2 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 05000 yuan / ton, and the port fob272 Beijing Sanfo Outdoor Products Co.Ltd(002780) 0 dollars / ton. In the Chinese market, the mainstream manufacturers are operating well, with sufficient orders from enterprises. Most of the orders on hand have been arranged until May June 2022. The spot circulation of glyphosate in the market is tight, and the inventory begins to decline slightly. Overseas, the follow-up will gradually enter the peak season of overseas drugs, but due to the impact of the epidemic and other factors, the current international logistics efficiency is low. In order to ensure the timely arrival of goods, the order cycle of overseas purchasers is advanced. In the short term, with the support of the demand side, there is still room for the price of glyphosate to rise. It is suggested to pay attention to relevant leading enterprises.
Investment suggestion: in 2022, we will mainly recommend three main investment lines: 1 Under the background of policy control, production and supply are becoming more stringent, while the demand side is still supportive in various sub sectors, such as pesticides, fertilizers and refrigerants; 2. Resource based chemical industry segments that rely on new energy and seek industrial transformation and upgrading from upstream materials, lengthen their business cycle and improve valuation, such as phosphorus chemical industry; 3. High value-added new materials with significant domestic substitution trend, such as semiconductor materials and display materials, which are key planning during the 14th Five Year Plan period.
Risk factors: the international crude oil price continues to fluctuate, the epidemic situation in some parts of China repeatedly affects the operation risk of enterprises, and the price of chemicals fluctuates sharply.
