Industry core view:
Last week, the Shenwan retail trade index rose 3.12%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 4.37 percentage points. According to the social zero data released by the Bureau of statistics, the social zero in March was – 3.5% compared with the same period in 2021, of which the retail sales of gold, silver, jewelry and cosmetics were – 17.9% and – 6.3% year-on-year respectively. We believe that in the short term, the rebound of the epidemic exceeds previous expectations, and the recovery of the consumer market is also facing uncertainty. Suggestions: ① mother and baby: since the implementation of the three child policy, governments across the country have issued a number of birth incentive measures. It is expected that the birth rate is expected to boost in the future with the implementation of more relevant supporting measures and policies. It is suggested to pay attention to the investment opportunities of mother and baby racing track in advance; ② Cosmetics & Medical Beauty: under the beauty economy, there is a strong demand for cosmetics and medical beauty. Recently, a number of regulations related to cosmetics and medical beauty have been issued, and the industry is facing a reshuffle, which will benefit the leading companies of compliant cosmetics and medical beauty; ③ Gold and jewelry: the recent intensification of geopolitical friction has pushed the gold price higher, but the offline consumption scene is facing uncertainty due to the impact of the epidemic. In the medium and long term, the increasing penetration of daily consumption, gift giving, investment and other scenarios under the concept of “pleasing oneself” has driven the steady expansion of the industry scale. In addition, the epidemic has accelerated the industry integration in the past two years. Jewelry leading enterprises have actively seized the market by seizing channels, upgrading brands and developing new products, and are optimistic about gold jewelry leading enterprises.
Key investment points:
The composite index of Commerce and trade rose by – 3.4% and the composite index of Commerce and trade rose by – 3.4% in the first quarter of last week. Since the beginning of the year, the Shanghai Composite Index has fallen by 11.77% and the commercial retail index has fallen by 11.43%. The Shenwan commercial retail index has outperformed the Shanghai Composite Index by 0.34 percentage points, ranking 10th among the 31 primary sub industries of Shenwan.
Industry data: ① social zero data: the total retail sales of social consumer goods in March was – 3.5% year-on-year, of which the retail sales revenue of goods was – 2.1% year-on-year and the catering revenue was – 16.4% year-on-year. Among the sub categories, the retail sales of gold, silver, jewelry and cosmetics of units above the quota were – 17.9% and – 6.3% year-on-year respectively. ② Raw material price data: last week, gold rose $25.85 to $197327/oz, and silver rose $0.88 to $25.65/oz.
Important announcements of listed companies: Imeik Technology Development Co.Ltd(300896) dividends Shanghai Haohai Biological Technology Co.Ltd(688366) reduction results; Abstract of annual report of Ruili medicine Bloomage Biotechnology Corporation Limited(688363) private placement announcement Lushang Health Industry Development Co.Ltd(600223) annual report summary and profit distribution Zhangzhou Pientzehuang Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(600436) annual report summary and profit distribution; Retail performance of Liufu group; Chow Tai Fook main data; Abstract of HengAn international annual report; Summary of annual report and performance forecast of Jieya shares Shanghai Aiyingshi Co.Ltd(603214) repurchase announcement and summary of annual report.
Important events in the industry: ① General Administration of market supervision: 9 types of illegal acts in the field of medicine and the United States will be investigated and dealt with; ② Official message: cold compress paste can still be sold.
Risk factors: the resurgence of the epidemic, the recovery of consumption is less than expected, and the industry competition intensifies.
