Market review last week (2022.4.112022.4.15): the Shanghai stock index opened low on the first day of last week, and the main indexes rose generally on the second day. After that, it maintained a shock and rebounded to a slight decline on the fifth day. The Shenzhen index fell on the first day of last week and remained mixed after rising on the second day. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 1.25% to close at 321124. The CSI 300 fell 0.99% last week to close at 418875. Last week, three of the sub sectors of social services and tourism retail rose, from high to low: tourism retail (+ 10.80%), hotel catering (+ 7.11%), professional services (+ 3.48%), tourism and scenic spots (- 3.29%) and Education (- 6.06%). Last week, seven of Shenwan (2021) 31 primary industries rose, and the five largest gainers were coal, food and beverage, commercial retail, beauty care and household appliances. Among them, the social service sector fell 0.62%, ranking ninth among Shenwan’s 31 industries. The social service industry outperformed the CSI 300 index by 0.37 PCTs. Tax free sales have recovered steadily, and the short-term impact does not change the long-term trend; Local tourism is “camping fever” to activate different consumption potential; The epidemic has prompted catering reform, and relief support has been escorted.
Tax free sales on outlying islands are heating up and waiting for the release of demand after the epidemic: on April 11, Haikou customs introduced that in the first quarter of this year, the customs supervised 14.72 billion yuan of tax-free shopping on Hainan outlying islands, a year-on-year increase of 8.4%; The number of shopping pieces was 20.27 million, a year-on-year increase of 14.2%; The per capita shopping amount was 8372 yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.2%. Although the duty-free shops in outlying islands of Hainan experienced a short wave of closure in March under the control of the epidemic, the prosperity of the duty-free industry in Hainan still performed well in the first quarter. Although the operation of duty-free shops on outlying islands still closed in April, when the epidemic situation improves, duty-free sales are expected to rebound and improve and maintain a high-speed development trend, and the demand for tourism retail consumption is expected to continue to be released.
The popularity of camping travel is rising, and the bottom business opportunities of tourism exploration: the travel data of 2022 Qingming holiday released by xiaohongshu recently shows that during the Qingming holiday in 2022, the search volume of picnic on xiaohongshu increased by 162% compared with the same period last year, and the search volume of camping increased significantly by 427% compared with the same period last year. Under the background of limited travel and rising demand for peripheral tourism, camping in country parks is gradually growing into a new hot spot for outdoor leisure tourism, supporting considerable consumption potential of tourists.
The digital reform of catering layout, rescue and boost the repair of the industry: the development report of catering chain enterprises in the post epidemic era points out that although the covid-19 epidemic has had an impact on China’s catering industry in the past two years, it has also accelerated the digital and capitalized transformation of the industry, and the “prefabricated vegetable” industry also has great development prospects. Recently, many governments issued relevant policies to help catering enterprises tide over the difficulties. As a rigid demand for food consumption, the characteristics of its necessities may cooperate with the changes of prefabricated dishes, digitization and other industries after the epidemic is stable, and promote the gradual recovery of the catering industry under the guidance of local support measures.
Investment suggestions:
In the first quarter of 2022, the duty-free sales volume of Hainan outlying islands maintained an upward trend. Under the impact of the epidemic, duty-free consumption increased against the trend. Recently, the epidemic repeatedly led to the short-term pressure on duty-free stores, but the long-term stable development trend remained unchanged. After the impact of the epidemic became smaller, the duty-free sales of outlying islands are expected to achieve a rapid rebound; Under the epidemic situation, local short distance travel is gradually occupying the main share of the tourism market, derivative outdoor park camping has become a new hot spot of consumption, and tourism is actively developing opportunities; In the context of the epidemic, the operating costs of catering enterprises have increased sharply, and the operating pressure may become a booster for accelerating the reform and development of the industry. Continue to recommend tax-free leading enterprises China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited(601888) ; Recommend Btg Hotels (Group) Co.Ltd(600258) , Shanghai Jin Jiang International Hotels Co.Ltd(600754) , China Cyts Tours Holding Co.Ltd(600138) , Songcheng Performance Development Co.Ltd(300144) , Jiangsu Tianmu Lake Tourism Co.Ltd(603136) , Lijiang tourism, Utour Group Co.Ltd(002707) , Guangzhou Lingnan Group Holdings Company Limited(000524) , and other hotels, scenic spots and comprehensive tourism service targets in the logic of cultural tourism restoration; Recommend Changbai Mountain Tourism Co.Ltd(603099) to release the benefit target of ice and snow tourism demand and Shanghai Yuyuan Tourist Mart (Group) Co.Ltd(600655) to focus on high-frequency consumption scenes and innovation target of life services.
Risk tips:
The epidemic of covid-19 virus has been repeated, and the recovery of the industry has not been as expected, and the implementation and implementation of policies have not been as expected.
