This week's research focuses on: how does this round of epidemic affect the production and marketing of household appliances?
Since April, the epidemic situation in Shanghai and Jilin has affected a wide range and had a deep impact. At the same time, sporadic epidemics have occurred in many regions across the country. In order to explore the impact of this round of epidemic situation on home appliance sales, we will explore it from the perspectives of production, logistics and terminal sales. On the whole, the current round of epidemic has hindered the supply and logistics distribution side, thus affecting the terminal sales. However, the negative impact on the demand side is controllable. Excluding the constraints on the logistics and production side, the decline in the growth rate of offline channels of main categories has narrowed compared with Q1 since the current round of epidemic. We believe that the overall demand is still improved, and the subsequent stability of the influencing factors on the supply side is expected to improve the production and marketing situation.
Supply side: the production capacity of white electricity is limited, and the production capacity of kitchen electricity and clean appliances is greatly affected; Logistics distribution in East China, Northeast China and North China is blocked
Production level: white power enterprises have more industrial parks and are scattered, while the production capacity distribution of small household appliance enterprises is relatively concentrated, which is also greatly affected by the epidemic. Major white power enterprises have built many industrial parks across the country, and the geographical layout of production capacity is relatively scattered. For the northeast and East China regions with more new cases since the current round of epidemic, although some production capacity of the three major white power enterprises has been affected, on the whole, due to their wide distribution of national production capacity, we expect that the overall impact may be limited. The layout of kitchen electricity and small household appliance enterprises is relatively concentrated, so some areas are greatly affected. The industrial park of kitchen electric enterprises is dominated by Zhejiang, mainly distributed in Haining, Shengzhou and other places in Northern Zhejiang, while small household electrical appliance enterprises are mainly located in Shunde, Guangdong, and the production bases of clean electrical appliance enterprises such as lake, Ecovacs Robotics Co.Ltd(603486) , Chunguang and other enterprises are mainly located in Suzhou, Jiangsu. Since the current round of epidemic, the production of enterprises in the Yangtze River Delta has been affected to varying degrees. Among them, the prevention and control policies in Suzhou and Haining may have a greater impact on the relevant local production capacity, while Guangdong is relatively less affected by the current round of epidemic. Therefore, we judge that from the production end, some clean electrical appliances and kitchen electricity enterprises are greatly affected.
Logistics level: most provinces and regions in China are affected to varying degrees, among which East China, Northeast China and North China are greatly affected. The reduction of personnel flow and logistics efficiency caused by the epidemic has become another major factor affecting the supply side. From the information of e-commerce platform, the major provinces and regions in China have been affected to varying degrees. Among them, East China, Northeast China and North China, where the epidemic situation is more serious, have been greatly affected. In some provinces, the logistics distribution of more than three municipal administrative units cannot be delivered.
Demand side: offline sales performed better than online, and small household appliances performed better than large household appliances
Channel: offline sales are better than online sales. Different from the previous epidemic, Omicron has intensified the degree of logistics control due to its stronger infectivity, which has a negative impact on the normal progress of online sales. However, due to the certain inventory accumulation of offline stores and dealers relative to online, the supply side obstruction caused by the epidemic is relatively small. From the data performance, the year-on-year growth rate of online channel and large household appliances in the first two weeks of April was lower than that from January to March, while the year-on-year growth rate of offline channel and large household appliances in the first two weeks of April was narrower than that from January to March.
Category: small household appliances perform better than large household appliances. From the data performance, the impact of household appliances in the first two weeks of April was significantly greater than that of small household appliances, which showed that the sales volume of household wires decreased significantly from January to March compared with the growth rate in the first two weeks of April. At the same time, the growth rate of small household appliances in the first two weeks of April was basically the same as that in January to March. We believe that the following reasons contribute to the weak demand during the epidemic: the large amount of household electricity itself and the reduced consumption willingness of residents during the epidemic lead to reluctance to update and buy products in advance; At the same time, the installation of household electricity often requires special personnel to provide door-to-door service, and the relevant activities are limited during the epidemic. Small household appliances tend to be fast-moving consumer goods. Due to the increase of residents' home time during the epidemic, the dependence on relevant kitchen small household appliances and cleaning appliances has increased, which has promoted the consumption of relevant categories.
Price trend of raw materials: on April 15, 2022, the spot settlement prices of SHFE copper and aluminum were 75700 and 21820 yuan / ton respectively; SHFE copper was + 2.44% and aluminum was - 0.14% compared with last week; Since the beginning of this year, the price of copper has been + 8.62% and that of aluminum + 7.65%. On April 15, 2022, the price index of China plastic city was 101986, up from - 0.78% last week and + 2.71% this year. On April 15, 2022, the comprehensive steel price index was 141.41, up from - 0.77% last week and + 7.29% this year.
Investment suggestion: in the short term, we believe that the consumer and home appliance industry will still be in a shock situation, the recovery trend of the demand side will still be affected by the epidemic situation all over the country, and the logistics will be blocked or slow in a large range. It is recommended to give priority to high-quality targets with clear valuation anchors and wait for the impact of the epidemic to pass. Recommend [ Haier Smart Home Co.Ltd(600690) ], [ Midea Group Co.Ltd(000333) ], [ Hangzhou Robam Appliances Co.Ltd(002508) ], [ Zhejiang Supor Co.Ltd(002032) ], [ Bear Electric Appliance Co.Ltd(002959) ].
Risk tip: the expansion of the epidemic situation, the risk of fluctuations in the real estate market, exchange rate and raw material prices, etc.
