Zhou Du's core view:
E-commerce:
The epidemic rebounded in many places in China, and the online consumer demand of residents may continue to increase. Jd.com deployed the first batch of about 2000 express brothers, allocated more than 100 intelligent express vehicles to ensure the first-line operation and delivery in Shanghai, and provided 16 million materials for Shanghai, which can ensure the supply of Shanghai jd.com users for nearly a month; On the 15th, Jingdong Shanghai fulfilled 43% of the orders before the epidemic and will resume about 80% next week. The epidemic prevention and control will be tightened, and the business forms such as real-time retail and community group purchase may benefit: the self operated mode of real-time retail e-commerce, such as daily excellent fresh food, Ding Dong shopping, box horse, meituan shopping, etc; O2o platform modes, such as Jingdong home, taoxianda, hungry, meituan flash purchase, etc; Community group purchase, such as meituan optimization, buying more vegetables, panning vegetables, etc. Suggestion: JD group.
Traditional retail:
The Shanghai municipal government included Shanghai post in the "white list" of key guaranteed supply enterprises, and Shanghai Post jointly issued vegetable guaranteed supply packages with platforms such as Yonghui and meituan; More than 100 employees of Yonghui Fujian and Anhui rushed to Shanghai; In the first stage of digital employment in Yonghui stores, the benchmark store's human efficiency was improved by nearly 50%. Recently, the epidemic situation in China has been repeated, local control has become increasingly strict, residents have hoarded goods, and the sales of fresh, frozen food, prefabricated vegetables and other categories may increase. Pay attention to the repair opportunities of head supermarkets with the advantage of fresh supply chain. It is suggested to pay attention to: Yonghui Superstores Co.Ltd(601933) , Jiajiayue Group Co.Ltd(603708) , Chengdu Hongqi Chain Co.Ltd(002697) .
Gold jewelry:
Gold jewelry maintained a high outlook. From January to February 2022, the total zero growth rate of gold and silver jewelry society was 63.9 billion yuan, an increase of 19.5% year-on-year, with a growth rate of + 19.7 PCT month on month, far exceeding the zero growth rate of the whole society in the same period (6.7%). In the short term, the demand depends on the effectiveness of epidemic prevention and control and the recovery of offline passenger flow; In the long run, the upgrading of the ancient process on the product side will stimulate terminal consumption, and the reform of changing the one-time price of gold to the weight of gold on the price side will promote the transparency of the pricing mechanism. With the head brand actively expanding the sinking market, the market concentration is expected to continue to improve. It is suggested to pay attention to: Chow Tai Seng Jewellery Company Limited(002867) , Chow Tai Fook, Lao Feng Xiang Co.Ltd(600612) .
Market review last week:
Last week (202204.11202204.15), the retail trade (CITIC) index rose 0.12%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.12pct. Among the 30 first-class industries of CITIC, the commerce and retail sector ranked seventh. Among the sub industries in the retail sector, the top sub industries were supermarkets and convenience stores, department stores and comprehensive formats, with an increase of 6.43%, 5.54% and 4.21% respectively. The quantile of PE in the commercial retail industry is greater than CSI 300. At present, the PE (TTM) of the commercial retail industry is 82.78, which is in the quantile from small to large since 2012, which is 95.56%; CSI 300 PE (TTM) is 12.29, with a quantile of 49.38%.
Industry dynamic tracking:
E-commerce: jd.com allocates the first batch of about 2000 express brothers, allocates more than 100 intelligent express vehicles, ensures the first-line operation and delivery in Shanghai, and provides 16 million materials for Shanghai, which can ensure the supply of jd.com users in Shanghai in recent January; Hungry? 2800 new riders returned to their posts in Shanghai to support distribution support; Shanghai market supervision and Administration Bureau regulates the community group purchase price during the epidemic prevention and control period; Meituan provided free accommodation and anti epidemic subsidies for riders in Shanghai, and returned commissions to small and medium-sized merchants affected by the epidemic. The first batch has exceeded 30 million yuan; Meituan takeout "community group meal" has delivered 200000 meals in Shanghai; Pinduoduo's "48 hour guaranteed package area" has sold more than 20000 group purchases; 42 non epidemic related warehouses of Shanghai e-commerce platform have resumed business, with an opening rate of 95.5%; On the 15th, Jingdong Shanghai fulfilled 43% of the orders before the epidemic and will resume about 80% next week. Traditional retail: Suning Yipin purchases and distributes 24000 pieces of fast drying clothes to the medical team of Jiangsu aid to Shanghai, and Suning.Com Co.Ltd(002024) Shanghai local warehouse transports more than 50 kinds of livelihood materials; Shanghai post, together with Yonghui, meituan and other platforms, issued vegetable guarantee packages; More than 100 employees of Yonghui Fujian and Anhui rushed to Shanghai; In the first stage of digital employment in Yonghui stores, the benchmark store's human efficiency has been improved by nearly 50%; Shanghai HEMA is expected to reach 1000 people by April 15, and HEMA x member store will open to pick up from the store.
Investment suggestions:
Maintain the "overweight" rating of the commercial retail industry.
Investment main line 1: gold jewelry continues its recovery trend and high outlook. It is recommended to pay attention to Chow Tai Seng Jewellery Company Limited(002867) , Chow Tai Fook, Lao Feng Xiang Co.Ltd(600612) .
Investment mainline 2: common prosperity background, superimposed traffic peaking status quo, Internet enterprises are facing fierce competition, it is suggested to pay attention to Jingdong group, which has low regulatory risk, focuses on performance efficiency with retail as the king, and builds a moat with supply chain advantages.
Investment main line 3: Recently, the epidemic situation in China has been repeated, local control has become increasingly strict, and residents have hoarded goods. Pay attention to the repair opportunities of head supermarkets with the advantage of fresh supply chain. It is suggested to pay attention to Yonghui Superstores Co.Ltd(601933) , Jiajiayue Group Co.Ltd(603708) , Chengdu Hongqi Chain Co.Ltd(002697) .
Risk tips:
Repeated outbreaks; Macroeconomic depression; Industry competition intensifies.
