Core view
Part of Apple's OEM plants have been shut down, TSMC's Q1 revenue has reached a new high, and the global chip shipment is expected to exceed 400 billion
Affected by the epidemic, Apple's second-largest iPhone foundry and some computer foundries shut down, and the delivery time of MacBook Pro lengthened. On April 12, according to the China Semiconductor forum, affected by the epidemic, Heshuo, the second-generation industry and Commerce of Apple iPhone, has stopped the assembly in Shanghai and Kunshan, and is expected to fully resume production as soon as the end of April or early May. On April 13, Guangda, a notebook computer foundry, announced that its subsidiary Dagong (Shanghai) computer was temporarily suspended, and the actual resumption time will be notified by the local government. As the largest foundry of Apple MacBook, Guangda's shutdown in Shanghai will have a great impact on MacBook.
TSMC's revenue in 2022q1 was US $17.57 billion, an increase of 38.01% year-on-year and 11.64% month on month. In terms of business platforms, the main revenue contribution fields in the first quarter of 2022 were high-performance HPC (accounting for 41%) and smart phones (accounting for 40%), of which high-performance HPC and automobile grew the fastest, with an increase of 26% compared with the previous quarter. TSMC expects its revenue in the second quarter of 2022 to reach US $17.6-18.2 billion, with a gross profit margin of 56% - 58% and an operating profit margin of 45% - 47%; The annual revenue will increase by 24-29% and the gross profit margin will reach more than 53%.
Global chip shipments are expected to exceed 400 billion in 2022, with a year-on-year increase of 9.2%. According to IC insights data, global chip shipments increased by 22% year-on-year in 2021. In 2022, global chip shipments increased by 9.2% year-on-year on the basis of last year's high growth, reaching 422.7 billion, which is expected to reach another record high; The compound annual growth rate of chip shipments from 2021 to 2026 is 7%. By the end of 2024, the monthly production capacity is expected to reach 6.9 million pieces / month. According to semi data, from the beginning of 2020 to the end of 2024, the monthly production capacity of 200mm wafer factory is expected to increase by 1.2 million pieces (an increase of 21%), reaching a record 6.9 million pieces / month.
We believe that the current global semiconductor production capacity remains in short supply, and major wafer factories around the world continue to actively expand production. In the next few years, with the gradual release of production capacity, semiconductor production capacity is expected to continue to reach a new high. It is worth noting that 8-inch wafers are also expected to grow rapidly this year, benefiting from the strong demand for chips such as PMIC, discrete devices and CIS. On the demand side, there may be structural differentiation in the downstream field of semiconductors, and the demand for consumer electronics may be weak. At the same time, Apple's supply chain is once again affected by the epidemic. The shipment of some products is blocked, the production efficiency is reduced, and the impact of transportation and shipment may also lead to an increase in costs. If the costs are transferred to downstream consumers, it may hit the consumer electronics market with weak demand again. In this context, focus on upstream and downstream enterprises in the industrial chain with strong supply chain management and control ability and relatively less affected by the epidemic. In addition, the demand for automotive, HPC, IOT and other chips remains high. At the same time, combined with the trend of domestic substitution, domestic vehicle specification and industrial chip manufacturers are expected to usher in historic development opportunities.
Risk tips
Downstream demand is lower than expected; Repeated outbreaks pose the risk of capacity disruption.
Related subject matter
Semiconductor design: [ Will Semiconductor Co.Ltd.Shanghai(603501) ] [ Allwinnertech Technology Co.Ltd(300458) ] [ Gigadevice Semiconductor (Beijing) Inc(603986) ] [ Sg Micro Corp(300661) ] [ Maxscend Microelectronics Company Limited(300782) ]; Wafer Foundry: [ Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation(688981) ] [Huahong semiconductor]; Semiconductor materials: [ Red Avenue New Materials Group Co.Ltd(603650) ] [Jingrui shares]; Power semiconductor: [ Wingtech Technology Co.Ltd(600745) ] [ China Resources Microelectronics Limited(688396) ] [ Hangzhou Silan Microelectronics Co.Ltd(600460) ] [ Starpower Semiconductor Ltd(603290) ] [ Wuxi Nce Power Co.Ltd(605111) ] [ Shenzhen Minde Electronics Technology Ltd(300656) ]
Consumer electronics: [ Goertek Inc(002241) ] [ Sunwoda Electronic Co.Ltd(300207) ] [ Avary Holding (Shenzhen) Co.Limited(002938) ] [ Luxshare Precision Industry Co.Ltd(002475) ]; Smartphone: [Xiaomi group] folding screen: [ Jiangsu Gian Technology Co.Ltd(300709) ] [ Wuhu Token Sciences Co.Ltd(300088) ]
