Core view
Pig breeding:
The price of piglets rose sharply, and the sales growth of pig enterprises in March was differentiated. According to Yongyi information data, on April 15, the price of pigs was 12.48 yuan / kg, up 2.46% on a weekly basis, and the price of pigs rose slightly. The price of piglets rose sharply, and the mood of making up hurdles warmed up. According to Yongyi information, the market price of 15kg piglets last week was 444 yuan / head, up 8.0% on a weekly basis; According to Zhuo Chuang information, the average selling price of Sanyuan piglets outside 7 kg was 313.15 yuan / head, a month on month increase of 9.09%. A number of listed breeding enterprises released the pig sales briefing in March. The pig sales volume of 11 listed breeding enterprises in March was 5.4601 million, with a significant increase of 46.73% month on month. The marketing growth rate was differentiated, but the marketing volume generally maintained an upward trend. In the first quarter of 2022, a total of 145055 million were listed, with a year-on-year increase of 38.08%. The collection and storage of the fourth batch of frozen pork in the central reserve traded 40000 tons of frozen pork in the afternoon of April 14. In addition, Sichuan, Gansu, Jiangxi and other places have also started the collection and storage of pork, which will form a joint force with the state to "support the market" and boost market confidence. In June 2021, the stock of fertile sows began to decline. As it takes about 10 months from the stock of fertile sows to the supply of pigs, the distribution of pigs is still in the peak period from March to May this year, resulting in excess supply of pigs. China's epidemic control measures control pork consumption under catering and tourism. The demand side is depressed, and the pressure of superimposed feed cost and operating cost increases. Persistent losses lead to pressure on enterprise cash flow, and the deregulation of production capacity is expected to accelerate. Pork collection and storage is difficult to change the fundamentals of pig supply and demand. In the short term, pig prices are still at the bottom stage of shock. It is suggested to grasp the left layout opportunity and pay attention to enterprises with stable operation and significant cost control advantages.
Seed industry:
The central government expanded the identification scale of national seed production bases to inject growth into the seed industry. Recently, the general office of the Ministry of agriculture and rural areas issued the "management specification for National Crop Germplasm Resources Bank (nursery)" and implemented it from April 11, aiming to lay a good foundation for the collection, protection, identification, evaluation, sharing and utilization of germplasm resources. On April 13, the Ministry of agriculture and rural areas announced the identification results of National Seed Production Counties and regional breeding bases. The number of national seed production bases has increased to 216, and the guarantee capacity of seed supply will be increased to 80% at the end of the 14th five year plan. This will open up greater market space for leading seed enterprises. The strong cold wave in April in Europe caused many places to break the low temperature record, which had a great impact on agricultural production. The food supply may be impacted again, superimposed with the impact of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, and the international food prices may continue to rise. China's food prices are expected to continue to operate at a high level, and the seed industry will maintain a high boom. It is suggested to pay attention to the leading seed enterprises with core biological breeding technology and strong R & D strength.
Investment advice
Pig breeding: the supply of pig market is loose, the demand side is depressed, the central collection and storage action boosts the confidence of the industry, and the pig price is at the bottom stage of shock. It is suggested to pay attention to breeding enterprises with stable operation and significant cost control advantages.
Seed industry: the recognized scale of national seed production base is expanded, and enterprises with core biological breeding technology are expected to take advantage of the policy to continuously improve the market share. It is suggested to pay attention to the leading seed enterprises with core biological breeding technology and strong R & D strength.
Risk tips
Macroeconomic fluctuations; Non plague situation; Extreme weather effects; Fluctuations in grain prices, etc.
