Core view
Among the Shenwan sub industries, the home appliance sector increased by 1.25% last week, ranking 5 / 31 in yield. Last week (4.11-4.15), the Shanghai Composite Index rose – 1.25% to close at 321124; The Shenzhen Composite Index rose – 3.21% to close at 201387; The gem index rose – 4.75% to close at 274429.
The national standing committee will deploy measures to promote consumption policies, and the steady growth of real estate is expected to underpin the economy. Last week, the national standing committee meeting mentioned “expanding consumption in key areas” and “encouraging large consumption such as automobiles and household appliances”, and decided to further strengthen policy support such as export tax rebate. The meeting played a directional role in the implementation of follow-up local policies. Last week, Beijing also launched a new round of policies to promote green energy-saving consumption, encouraging the purchase of green energy-saving products and promoting consumption upgrading in the form of issuing green energy-saving consumption vouchers. Dishwashers, projectors, water purifiers, etc. appear in this round of subsidies, and some new categories of household appliances will benefit. At the same time, the recent policy has repeatedly mentioned that monetary policy will increase support for the real economy. Under the expectation of increasing downward pressure on the economy and stable growth, the real estate relaxation is expected to continue. At present, many places have successively issued real estate deregulation policies. Based on the emergence of Q1 real estate policy bottom, continue to pay attention to the emergence of market bottom.
From the perspective of terminal data, the growth rate of sales and sales volume of large household appliances air conditioners, refrigerators, washing machines and range hoods in March was negative year-on-year, and the Wuxi Online Offline Communication Information Technology Co.Ltd(300959) average prices of the four categories increased to varying degrees compared with the same period last year. From the weekly data, the overall sales volume of w15 (4.4-4.9) ice and air washing fell year-on-year, and the average price of white electricity showed a steady downward trend as a whole. Affected by the epidemic, some consumers have increased their demand for refrigerated storage, and there has been a small upsurge in their attention to refrigerators and freezers recently. However, we believe that in the long run, this wave of demand is not just demand, and the impetus to change the space of the industry is limited.
Q4 the heavy position allocation of household appliances of public funds increased month on month. Among the heavy positions held by 2021q4 public funds, the home appliance industry accounted for 1.61%, compared with 2021q3, with a month on month increase of + 0.17pct; There are 1379 funds in 2021q4, involving the home appliance industry, 208 more than Q3. Among the heavy positions of 2021q4 public funds, the allocation proportion of white electricity, kitchen electricity, small household appliances and black electricity industries was 1.2% / 0.0% / 0.1% / 0.0% respectively. Except for the slight decrease in the ring ratio of small household appliances, the ring ratio of other sub industries increased slightly.
Industry news
The central bank decided to reduce the deposit reserve ratio of financial institutions by 0.25 percentage points on April 25, 2022; Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region announced the investment plan for key projects in 2022. According to incomplete statistics of Mysteel, there are 8 home appliance projects with a planned investment of 1.24 billion yuan. From April 18 to the end of September 2022, Beijing issued green energy-saving consumption vouchers with a total amount of more than 300 million yuan to consumers in Beijing, which can be seen as the continuation of the energy-saving subsidy policy of household appliances in Beijing.
Investment advice
It is suggested to pay attention to the traditional leaders who benefit from the recovery of fundamentals and the emerging categories of household appliances with high landscape. Related objects: Midea Group Co.Ltd(000333) , Haier Smart Home Co.Ltd(600690) , Hangzhou Robam Appliances Co.Ltd(002508) , Joyoung Co.Ltd(002242) , Zhejiang Supor Co.Ltd(002032) , Ecovacs Robotics Co.Ltd(603486) , Marssenger Kitchenware Co.Ltd(300894) , etc.
Risk tips
The real estate policy is not as expected; Raw materials rose sharply; Changes in tariff policies; The consumption demand side is less than expected; Exchange rate rise, etc.
