Core view
The turnover of new houses and second-hand houses this week increased compared with last week. This week, the number of new houses sold in 38 cities was 27000, up 11.6% month on month and down 52.9% year-on-year; The number of new houses sold in 13 large and medium-sized cities was 17000, up 14.0% month on month and down 49.7% year-on-year; 1、 The number of new houses sold in the second and third tier cities changed by + 31.0%, + 18.4% and – 8.1% month on month respectively, with a year-on-year growth rate of – 48.5%, – 55.5% and – 15.7% respectively. The number of second-hand housing transactions in 15 cities was 11000, with a month on month increase of 25.8% and a year-on-year decrease of 48.9%; The number of second-hand housing transactions in 11 large and medium-sized cities was 9000, up 24.4% month on month and down 48.7% year-on-year; 1、 The number of second-hand housing transactions in the second and third tier cities increased by 33.7%, 19.6% and 26.1% month on month respectively, with a year-on-year growth rate of – 47.0%, – 50.1% and – 43.4% respectively.
The inventory of new houses has decreased, and the decontamination cycle has increased compared with last week. The inventory of new houses in 15 cities was 1.024 million units, down 0.2% month on month, and the decontamination cycle was 18.0 months, up 0.5 months month on month; The inventory of new houses in 8 large and medium-sized cities was 559000 units, down – 0.1% month on month and up 3.7% year on year. The decontamination cycle was 13.5 months and up 0.5 months month on month; The inventory of new houses in the first tier cities was 265000 units, down 0.1% month on month; the de stocking cycle was 12.8 months, up 0.8 months month on month; the inventory of new houses in the second tier cities was 206000 units, up 0.2% month on month; the de stocking cycle was 15.1 months, up 0.7 months on month; the inventory of new houses in the third tier cities was 89000 units, down 0.7% month on month; the de stocking cycle was 12.4 months, down 0.9 months on month.
The overall land market fell compared with the volume and price of last week, and the land premium rate decreased. The number of all types of land sold in Baicheng was 133, with a month on month decrease of 69.3% and a year-on-year decrease of 67.5%; The planned construction area of the land traded was 7.63 million square meters, a month on month decrease of 73.2% and a year-on-year decrease of 73.2%; The total land transaction price was 7.3 billion yuan, down 92.2% month on month and 84.3% year-on-year; The average floor price of land traded was 953 yuan / square meter, down 70.9% month on month and 41.3% year-on-year; The land premium rate of Baicheng was 0.25%, down 92.0% month on month and 99.2% year-on-year.
The issuance scale of credit bonds of real estate enterprises increased month on month, but still fell sharply year-on-year. The total issuance of credit bonds in the real estate industry this week was 8.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 44.0% (previous value: – 89.5%) and a month on month increase of 507.4%; The total repayment amount was 7.174 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 73.7% (previous value: – 11.8%) and a month on month decrease of 26.0%; The net financing amount is 1.026 billion yuan (previous value: – 8.35 billion yuan). The total issuance of Chinese enterprise credit bonds was 8.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 37.6% (previous value: – 86.3%) and a month on month increase of 507.4%; The net financing amount is 3.086 billion yuan. No credit issued by private enterprises for four consecutive weeks; The net financing amount is -2.06 billion yuan.
Investment advice
At the local level, the supply and demand side has been further adjusted according to local conditions. We have seen more policies to reduce the purchase threshold and purchase cost of home buyers. This week, Yichang cancelled the sales restriction within two years, and the down payment proportion of the first suite fell to the lowest 20%; Nanjing Lishui and Liuhe partially relax the purchase restrictions; The down payment ratio of second home loans in Jingzhou, Hubei, Ziyang, Sichuan and Nanping, Fujian was reduced to 30%; Suzhou relaxed the conditions of payment for social security payment for non registered residence families. Kunming has formulated relevant policies from eight aspects: accelerating the de commercialization of commercial and commercial housing, making rational use of commercial and commercial land, alleviating the difficulties of real estate development enterprises during the epidemic, encouraging relocation and resettlement in various ways, optimizing business services, optimizing housing financial services, effectively preventing and resolving real estate market risks, continuously rectifying and standardizing the order of the real estate market, and guiding public opinion in the real estate market. In our previous report, we mentioned that the cities where the policy is expected to be relaxed have been verified one after another. At the central level, the central bank announced the first RRR reduction in the year and decided to reduce the deposit reserve ratio of financial institutions by 0.25 percentage points on April 25, releasing a total of about 530 billion yuan of long-term funds. For real estate, the RRR reduction means that the credit policy will continue to be relaxed. From the perspective of real estate enterprises, development loans are expected to gradually increase, and some high-quality private enterprises are expected to increase liquidity; For home buyers, the overall housing loan environment will continue to be loose. The housing loan interest rate is expected to be further reduced in the second quarter, and the lending speed is expected to be further accelerated. For home buyers who need to buy houses, combined with the policies of reducing the down payment ratio in various places, they may better enjoy the benefits of reducing the reserve requirement. In addition, this week, a breakthrough was made in the issuance of infrastructure REITs products for affordable rental housing. The Shenzhen talent Anju group project has been submitted to the national development and Reform Commission and will become the first affordable rental housing REITs project.
From the perspective of sector investment, it is still a good configuration window period. We suggest paying attention to four main lines: 1) the leading real estate enterprises of central state-owned enterprises with nationwide layout have been boosted by valuation in the last stage, but will still enjoy the rising space brought by the beta Market: Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) , Gemdale Corporation(600383) , China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings Co.Ltd(001979) , Longhu group and China Resources Land; 2) Regional leaders of central state-owned enterprises and high-quality private enterprises pay less attention than the first level, but their cash flow and financial reporting quality are better: China Construction Development International, Yuexiu real estate, Midea real estate, Hangzhou Binjiang Real Estate Group Co.Ltd(002244) ; 3) After the policy becomes clearer, we can focus on the subject of elastic reversal: Xuhui holding group, Seazen Holdings Co.Ltd(601155) , Jinke Property Group Co.Ltd(000656) , country garden. 4) At present, the real estate post cycle property sector with strong income determination and accelerated concentration, as well as the recent credit risk mitigation of related real estate enterprises and elastic reversal: Country Garden service, Xuhui Yongsheng service, poly property, Zhonghai property and xinchengyue service.
Risk tips
Real estate regulation continues to upgrade; Sales fell more than expected; Financing continued to tighten.
