Oil and gas prices fluctuated sharply, and the prices of potassium fertilizer and phosphorus fertilizer continued to rise; Semiconductors and new energy materials are highly concerned.
Industry trends:
Among the 101 chemical varieties tracked by the average price this week, the prices of 27 varieties rose, 42 varieties fell and 32 varieties remained stable. The top five varieties were phosphate rock (Morocco), NYMEX natural gas, R125, glufosinate and phosphate rock (Hubei 28%); The top five varieties of decline were DMF, liquid chlorine, trichloroethylene, dichloromethane and coal tar.
WTI crude oil closed at US $107.0/barrel this week, and the closing price rose by 8.84% this week; Brent crude oil closed at US $111.7/barrel, closing up 8.68% this week. Russian Ukrainian negotiations reached an impasse this week, while OPEC still said it would not increase production. Russian crude oil exports were gradually affected by sanctions, and crude oil prices fluctuated upward. OPEC’s latest monthly report data show that its 13 member countries increased production by only about 57000 barrels of oil a day in March, far less than expected. According to EIA data, as of the week of April 8, U.S. crude oil inventories increased by 9.4 million barrels, and the market is expected to increase by 863000 barrels. Members of the International Energy Agency (IEA) will release 60 million barrels of oil reserves in the next six months, and the United States will release 60 million barrels of oil reserves. The rapid release of short-term strategic reserves of crude oil may suppress the production increase of shale oil manufacturers in OPEC member states and the United States. In the future, the Russian Ukrainian negotiations may last for a long time. In the short term, countries will release inventories to deal with the supply gap in Russia, and the oil price is expected to remain high and volatile.
This week, the phosphorus chemical industry chain products generally rose, and the phosphate rock (Hubei 28%) closed at 670 yuan / ton, with the weekly average price rising by 4.6%; Yellow phosphorus (Sichuan) closed at 36300 yuan / ton, with a weekly average price increase of 0.9%; The prices of phosphoric acid, DAP and map were the same as last week. According to the data of Baichuan Yingfu, the operating rate of phosphate rock industry in January and February was 38%, and the supply was tight. At this stage, most mainstream phosphate ore enterprises have suspended the quotation of receiving orders, mainly for their own use, and there are few phosphate ore resources flowing out, and the supply of phosphate ore is limited. In addition, the grade of phosphate ore mined this year is low and the output is in short supply, which promotes the price rise. In terms of yellow phosphorus, due to the low price of yellow phosphorus last week, the downstream manufacturers of yellow phosphorus actively prepared goods this week, and the demand was good. At the same time, the limited delivery of goods in some areas of the yellow phosphorus market has been alleviated. In the future, the supply of phosphate rock continues to be tight, and the price may still have upward space. At the same time, DAP and map prices are supported by phosphate rock prices, which are expected to remain high.
This week, the price of glyphosate rebounded to close at 192500 yuan / ton, with an average weekly price increase of 4.9%. Supported by the upward price of yellow phosphorus, the impact of the epidemic on transportation and other factors, the orders of China’s mainstream manufacturers have been arranged from May to June. The supply of glufosinate is tight and the price is upward. Meanwhile, at present, it is the peak season of overseas demand for glyphosate. Under the background of blocked shipping, overseas downstream manufacturers place orders and prepare goods in advance, and the demand side momentum is obvious. In the future, the short-term supply of glufosinate can not meet the overseas demand in time, and the mainstream suppliers gradually grasp the bargaining power. It is expected that the price of glufosinate still has a certain upward space.
Investment suggestions:
This week’s view
Cyclical industries: crude oil runs at a high level and the price transmission continues. As of April 1, 2022, the average monthly price of 68% of the tracked products has increased month on month; The average monthly price of 24% of products fell month on month; In addition, the price of 8% products was flat. As of April 17, 2022, the monthly average price of WTI crude oil increased by 3.05% month on month, and the monthly average price of Brent crude oil increased by 4.4% month on month. Industry data: in March 2022, the PPI index of the chemical industry was 110, down 2.3% from February 2022. In terms of policy, the 14th five year plan for modern energy system was released. The plan pointed out that under the background of more secure and powerful energy security, the proportion of non fossil energy power generation will reach about 39% by 2025. The medium and long-term plan for the development of hydrogen energy industry (20212035) was released, and the top-level design of hydrogen energy industry chain was gradually implemented. The raw materials fluctuated sharply and are optimistic about the leading companies in the integrated industry. Especially in the context of industrial upgrading and concentration improvement under the background of carbon neutrality, leading companies have strong anti risk ability and obvious advantages.
Growth companies: the rise of lithium carbonate slowed down. According to the data of Shanghai Nonferrous Metals network, as of April 15, 2022, the average price of battery grade lithium carbonate closed at 494000 yuan / ton, falling below 500000 yuan / ton. On March 16 and 17, the Ministry of industry and information technology and the State Administration of market supervision organized a symposium on the operation of the lithium industry and a symposium on the price rise of upstream materials for power batteries, pointing out that upstream and downstream enterprises in the industrial chain should strengthen the connection between supply and demand, work together to form a long-term and stable strategic cooperative relationship, and jointly guide the rational return of lithium salt prices. In terms of semiconductor materials, according to the latest semi report data, the global semiconductor material market revenue was about US $64.3 billion in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 15.9%, reaching a new high. Among them, the revenue of China’s semiconductor material market was about US $11.9 billion, a year-on-year increase of 21.9%.
Investment suggestion: the chemical industry chain is long, the raw materials fluctuate violently, the downstream price transmission lags behind, and the supply and demand of different products determine different transmission degrees. Some products and sub industries may face poor transmission and loss of profits. In the selection of sub industries, it focuses on integration and high view. From the perspective of sub industry prosperity, upstream petrochemical refining, Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) related agrochemicals, infrastructure related chemicals, semiconductor materials and new energy materials are expected to maintain a high prosperity. Recommended shares: followinga series of recommended shares: followinga Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) \ , Sobute New Materials Co.Ltd(603916) , Shandong Sinocera Functional Material Co.Ltd(300285) , Sunresin New Materials Co.Ltd Xi’An(300487) , etc., pay attention to Yunnan Yuntianhua Co.Ltd(600096) , Asia-Potash International Investment (Guangzhou) Co.Ltd(000893) , etc.
April golden shares: Zhejiang Nhu Company Ltd(002001)
Risk tips
1) large fluctuations in oil prices caused by changes in geopolitical factors; 2) The global epidemic situation has changed.
