Copper aluminum, cobalt lithium and precious metal sectors are recommended. This week, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 1.25%, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index fell 0.99%, the SW nonferrous index fell 2.94%, Comex gold rose 2.53% and silver rose 5.19%. LME aluminum, copper, zinc, lead, nickel and tin prices of major industrial metals changed by – 3.86%, 0.29%, 3.87%, 1.41%, – 0.85%, – 1.24% and 3.06% month on month respectively; Metal inventory LME aluminum, copper, zinc, lead, nickel and tin changed by – 1.26%, 5.25%, – 8.02%, 1.27%, – 1.48% and – 5.50% month on month respectively.
Industrial metals: the reduction of reserve requirement stimulates demand, the epidemic affects both ends of supply and demand, and the price of industrial metals is at a high level. Core view: RRR reduction stimulates demand, and supply and demand are limited under the influence of the epidemic. In terms of copper, supply and demand are both weak under the interference of China’s epidemic and logistics. The central bank decided to reduce the reserve requirement by 25bp on April 25. Monetary policy continues to be loose, which is conducive to China’s steady growth demand. High inflation under the European energy crisis supports copper prices. In terms of aluminum, on the supply side, the epidemic interfered with China’s transportation and delivery, and the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum decreased slightly by 3000 tons compared with last Thursday; On the demand side, under the regulation of the government, the local traffic has improved, the downstream construction has recovered, the market consumption has improved, the expectation is expected to be realized gradually, and the aluminum may enter a rapid destocking cycle. Focusing on the focus of the following focus: followingthe Zijin Mining Group Company Limited(601899) Western Mining Co.Ltd(601168) , China nonferrous mining industry.
Energy metals: in March, the sales volume of new energy vehicles increased significantly month on month, the epidemic impacted the supply chain, and the price of lithium and cobalt decreased slightly. Core view: the epidemic has impacted downstream demand, car factory orders have declined, 3C has entered the off-season, and the price of lithium and cobalt has fluctuated and decreased. In terms of lithium, the supply side: the increment of Salt Lake project continues, and the supply increases slightly. On the demand side, the sales data of new energy vehicles in March was good, but the epidemic began to impact the industrial chain in April, suppressing downstream demand, superimposing the resumption of production in China’s salt lakes and the correction of lithium prices. In terms of cobalt, the downstream procurement is weak, the overall price of cobalt salt in China is down, the price of overseas cobalt is rising, the flood in Durban, South Africa exacerbates the transportation problem, and the price of cobalt intermediates is rising. In terms of nickel, the profits of some salt plants with higher costs are upside down and production is stopped. The supply of nickel sulfate is significantly reduced, and the supply is tight to support the price. Focus on: Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co.Ltd(603799) , Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Co.Ltd(000792) , Ganfeng Lithium Co.Ltd(002460) , Tianqi Lithium Corporation(002466) , Yongxing Special Materials Technology Co.Ltd(002756) , Tibet Mineral Development Co.Ltd(000762) , Chengtun Mining Group Co.Ltd(600711) , China Northern Rare Earth (Group) High-Tech Co.Ltd(600111) , etc.
Precious metals: the conflict between Russia and Ukraine intensifies, and the price of gold is expected to rise under high inflation. Core view: the intensification of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine drives risk aversion, and it is expected that global inflation will support the rise of gold prices. The conflict between Russia and Ukraine has led to high prices of energy commodities, and the fragile supply chain is even worse. The inflation data of the United States in March recorded the largest rise in 12 years. It is expected that high inflation will continue. Although the Fed’s wording is tough, the gold price is facing the upward cycle under the pressure of high inflation. Focus on: Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining Co.Ltd(600988) , Yintai Gold Co.Ltd(000975) , gold mining industry and Shandong Gold Mining Co.Ltd(600547) .
Risk warning: demand is less than expected, supply is released more than expected, policy uncertainty, geopolitical risk.
