\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 154 Baoxiniao Holding Co.Ltd(002154) )
Event overview
In 2021, the company’s revenue / net profit attributable to the parent company / net profit deducted from non attributable to the parent company were 44.51/4.64/414 million yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 17.52% / 26.7% / 39.4%, which was lower than expected. Mainly due to the distribution of excess awards and the contribution of protection categories in 20 years, the actual net profit increased by about 73% after excluding the above effects. The non economic subsidy is 64.61 million yuan and the impact of income tax is – 15.93 million yuan. 21q4 company’s revenue / net profit attributable to the parent company / net profit deducted from non attributable to the parent company were RMB 1.478/0.97/105 billion respectively, with a year-on-year increase of – 3% / – 23% / 4% and a month on month slowdown. The company distributed 0.27 yuan per share, with a dividend rate of 85% and a dividend rate of 7.3%.
Analysis and judgment:
The growth mainly came from the contribution of store efficiency, and hazys slowed down significantly in the second half of the year. In 2021, the revenue of Baoxiniao Holding Co.Ltd(002154) / hazzys / kemiche & lefeiye & TB / BAONIAO / other enterprises was 16.12/14.52/3.81/837/45 million yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 26.26% / 17.83% / 7.02% / 6.61% / 9.30%. (1) From the first and second half of the year, hazys slowed down significantly in the second half of the year Baoxiniao Holding Co.Ltd(002154) in the first / second half of the year, it increased by 64% / 7% (32% / 25% compared with the year of 19), and hazys in the first / second half of the year increased by 48% / – 1% (50% / 39% compared with the year of 19). Baoxiniao Holding Co.Ltd(002154) / hazys accelerated the opening of stores in the second half of the year, but the peak season of opening stores in the second half of the year was affected by the epidemic, with a net closing of 7 / 11 stores in the first half of the year and a net opening of 24 / 19 stores in the second half of the year. BAONIAO has increased on the basis of the contribution of protective categories in the past 20 years. (2) From the perspective of net store structure, Baoxiniao Holding Co.Ltd(002154) mainly comes from franchises (direct sales / net franchises – 1 / 18), hazzys mainly comes from direct sales (direct sales / net franchises – 13 / – 5). (3) Although the contribution of opening stores is small, the average area of the company’s stores has improved significantly. By the end of 2021, the average area of the company’s Baoxiniao Holding Co.Ltd(002154) / hazzys / kemiche & lefeiye & TB stores was 208 / 121 / 640000 yuan respectively, an increase of 0.4% / 4% / 11% year-on-year. (4) From the perspective of store efficiency and number of stores, the number of Baoxiniao Holding Co.Ltd(002154) / hazzys / kemiche & lefeiye & TB stores in 2021 was 796 / 401 / 258 respectively, with a net opening of 17 / 8 / – 22 respectively, with a corresponding growth rate of 2% / 2% / – 8%. It is estimated that the revenue of a single store is 202 / 362 / 1470000 yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 24% / 15% / 16%.
The growth of franchising accelerated, the growth of group purchase and online slowed down, and the growth of direct sales mainly came from the improvement of store efficiency. In 2021, the revenue of direct sales / franchise / group purchase / online / other modes was 1.758/8.06/8.61/681220 billion yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 14% / 38% / 7% / 13% / 31%. Compared with 20 years, the growth rate of franchise, group purchase and online slowed down (the growth rate in 2020 was 13% / – 12% / 36% / 43% / 14% respectively). In terms of branch efficiency and number of stores, the number of direct sales / franchise stores in 2021 was 752 / 924, with a year-on-year net opening of 6 / 37 and a net increase of 1% / 4%, It is estimated that the efficiency of Direct stores / the shipment of single franchise stores are 2.34/87million yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 13% / 33%. The increase in the proportion of hazys contributed to the growth of gross profit margin in 21 years, and the gross profit margin in 21q4 decreased significantly. In 2021, the gross profit margin was 63.92%, with a year-on-year increase of 0.54pct. We analyzed that the increase in gross profit margin was mainly due to the increase in the proportion of hazys. In terms of channels, the gross profit margin of online / direct sales / franchising / group purchase / other channels in 2021 was 65.42% / 78.05% / 65.34% / 45.34% / 42.87% respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 1.27/3.07 / – 0.74 / – 2.42 / – 0.19pct. The gross profit margin of direct sales channels increased significantly. We analyzed the contribution from hazys. The gross profit margin of 21q4 company was 61.07%, a year-on-year decrease of 6.35pct and a month on month decrease of 1.1pct. According to our analysis, it was mainly due to the slowdown of income and the increase of discounts caused by the epidemic.
The increase of net profit margin after deduction mainly comes from the increase of gross profit margin and the decrease of asset impairment loss. In 2021, the net interest rate was 10.77%, a year-on-year increase of 0.47pct, and the net interest rate deducted was 9.3%, a year-on-year increase of 1.46pct. In terms of expenses, the rates of sales / management / R & D / finance expenses were 39.6% / 7.4% / 1.7% / – 0.1% respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 0 / 0.4 / 0.1 / – 0.2pct. The increase in the rate of management expenses was mainly due to the company’s strengthening of performance incentives, the implementation of profit growth awards, and the low base due to the preferential policies of social security reduction and exemption affected by the epidemic in 20 years; In terms of breakdown, it mainly comes from the increase of employee salary (+ 54 million yuan). Net investment income / other income decreased by 0.25/0.24pct to 1.45% / 0.43% year-on-year, mainly due to the decrease in investment income of financial assets and the decrease in income from withholding Personal Income Tax Commission. Asset impairment loss decreased by 0.68pct to 1.7%, mainly due to the decrease in impairment of investment real estate. Non operating expenses increased by 0.26pct to 0.5%, mainly due to the increase of donation, damage and scrapping loss of non current assets, etc. The income tax rate was 22%, with a year-on-year decrease of 2pct, which was mainly due to the increase of deferred income tax assets caused by expected return of goods, deferred points and unpaid bonus, and the decrease of deferred income tax liabilities caused by the appreciation of consolidated assets of enterprises not under the same control, and the difference between accounting policies and tax time. 21q4 net profit margin was 7%, with a year-on-year decrease of 1.5pct and a month on month decrease of 5.2pct, mainly due to the decline of gross profit margin. Inventories have increased year-on-year, but the structure has been optimized, and the chain has improved. In 2021, the inventory was 1.15 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 19% and a month on month decrease of 4%, the inventory falling price reserve / inventory was 6%, and the inventory turnover days of clothing products were 261 days, with a year-on-year decrease of 41 days. In terms of structure, the proportion of inventory within 1 year / 1-2 years / 2-3 years / more than 3 years was 60% / 21% / 14% / 5% and 11% / – 16% / 5% / 0% respectively, which significantly improved the inventory structure. The turnover days of accounts receivable were 45 days, an increase of 1 day year-on-year, and the turnover days of accounts payable were 79 days, an increase of 1 day year-on-year.
Investment advice
According to our analysis, (1) in the short term, the performance was good in January and February, but the impact of the epidemic slowed down in March. However, the company has announced that it has received a government subsidy of 47.22 million yuan. We estimate that the revenue and profit of Q1 will maintain a steady and slight increase, which is better than that of the same industry; (2) The company has accrued nearly 60 million yuan of excess bonus in 21 years, which is a one-time impact; (3) The impact of the epidemic is a short-term factor. The Growth Logic of the company remains unchanged in three years, and it is expected to accelerate the opening of stores in 22 years. In particular, there is still room for opening stores at the franchise end of hazys, but it is not obvious in 21 years. It is expected to maintain the main brand in the medium and long term / hazys to achieve an income of 3 / 5 billion yuan; (3) In the long run, the company has also learned from the experience of Korean commodity planning in the process of acting as hazys. It is expected to grow into a multi brand operation group in the future. It is not excluded that there are still new brands as growth points in addition to hazys.
Considering the impact of the epidemic, the income of 22 / 23 was reduced from 5.753/6.931 billion yuan to 5.03/5.94 billion yuan, the new 24-year income was 6.89 billion yuan, the net profit attributable to the mother in 22 / 23 was reduced from 658 / 836 million yuan to 569 / 697 million yuan, the new 24-year net profit attributable to the mother was 820 million yuan, the corresponding EPS in 22 / 23 was reduced from 0.45/0.57 yuan to 0.39/0.48 yuan, and the new 24-year EPS was 0.56 yuan, On April 16, 2022, the share price was 3.67 yuan, and the corresponding PE was 9 / 8 / 7X respectively. The buy rating was maintained, and the fixed increase cost of major shareholders was 3.07 yuan, providing a relative margin of safety.
Risk tips
Uncertainty of epidemic development, lower than expected progress of store opening, systemic risk.
