\u3000\u3 Shengda Resources Co.Ltd(000603) 369 Jiangsu King’S Luck Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(603369) )
Event: according to the company’s 2021 annual report, the total operating revenue in 21 years was 6.408 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 25.13%, and the net profit attributable to the parent was 2.029 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 29.5%. In 21q4, the total operating revenue of the company was 1.073 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.84%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 330 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 30.39%.
Comments:
The collection reservoir is sufficient and has made a good start in 22 years. In 2021, the company’s sales collection was 8.556 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 48.45%, which was significantly higher than the growth of revenue. By the end of 2021, the company’s advance collection was 2.067 billion yuan, an increase of 1.206 billion yuan month on month, and sufficient reservoirs were reserved. We think it is related to the company’s good start and early collection rhythm. According to the announcement, 22q1 company is expected to achieve a total operating revenue of about 3 billion yuan, an increase of about 25% year-on-year; The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be about 1 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of about 24%. Due to the small impact of the epidemic in Jiangsu during the Spring Festival and the large number of migrant workers returning home, the overall sales situation of the Spring Festival is good. Although there was an epidemic disturbance in the second quarter, the channel inventory remained benign and the dealers’ mentality was stable.
The structure upgrade is obvious, the advertising investment is reduced, and the profit elasticity is gradually released. In 2021, the revenue of the company’s special a + / Special A / class A / class B / class C products was 4.17/17.1/2.7/1.4/0.8 billion yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 35.7% / 14.1% / 4.4% / – 13.3% / – 9.8% respectively. The product structure was further concentrated to the Guoyuan series. Among them, the sales volume of special a+ products (the factory guide price is more than 300 yuan) increased by 22%, the ton price increased by 11%, the revenue accounted for 65.29%, and increased by 5.1pct year-on-year. On the one hand, the new fourth open product has been upgraded smoothly, and the volume has been increased steadily. On the other hand, the company’s V-series battle has achieved initial results, and V3 and V9 have been gradually introduced into the market. Under the guidance of structural upgrading, the company’s gross profit margin increased by 3.5pct to 74.6% in 2021; Due to the reduction of advertising investment, the sales expense rate decreased by 2pct to 15.1% year-on-year, while the proportion of taxes and surcharges and the management expense rate decreased slightly, and the overall expense rate decreased by 3PCT to 18.6% year-on-year; The net interest rate increased by 1.1pct to 31.7% year-on-year, and the profit elasticity was further released.
Southern and central Jiangsu continue to make efforts, and the layout outside the province is prominent. In 2021, the company achieved revenue of RMB 1.27/15.8/8.5/87/7.6/6.1/450 billion respectively in Huai’an / Nanjing / Southern Jiangsu / Central Jiangsu / Yancheng / Huaihai / outside the province, with a year-on-year increase of 18.0% / 19.8% / 34.3% / 32.9% / 16.0% / 44.9% / 36.0% respectively. Among them, the growth rate of Southern Jiangsu and central Jiangsu is significantly higher than the average level. The Huaihai region outside the province and at the junction with the three provinces also maintains high-speed growth, and the regional development is more balanced. In 2021, the company had 1051 dealers in total, with a year-on-year increase of 103. The newly added dealers were mainly outside the province, reflecting the company’s appeal for the nationwide battle, and the cultivation outside the province was promoted in an orderly manner.
Profit forecast and investment rating: in 2022, the company set a revenue target of 7.5 billion yuan (+ 17%) and strive for 8 billion yuan (+ 25%); The net profit target is 2.25 billion yuan (+ 11%), striving for 2.35 billion yuan (+ 16%). Recently, chairman Zhou suming resigned at the age of retirement, general manager Gu Xiangyue took over, the management turnover was smooth, and the company’s “13445” marketing plan continued. We expect the company’s diluted earnings per share from 2022 to 2024 to be 2.01 yuan, 2.57 yuan and 3.24 yuan respectively, maintaining the “buy” rating of the company.
Risk factors: intensified competition in the province; The market development outside the province is less than expected; Repeated impact of the epidemic
