\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 995 Yunnan Wenshan Electric Power Co.Ltd(600995) )
It is proposed to restructure the assets into the peak shaving and frequency modulation of China Southern Power Grid to create high-quality pumped storage and energy storage assets: the company is the only listed pumped storage + energy storage platform of China Southern Power Grid. In 2020, the pumped storage revenue of China Southern power grid peak shaving and frequency modulation company accounted for 61% and the gross profit accounted for 69%, which is the source of the company's gross profit. The peak shaving and frequency modulation company of China Southern Power Grid, the asset placement, is a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Southern Power Grid. Its original main business is four sectors: pumped storage, peak shaving hydropower, gas and electricity, and independent energy storage business at the grid side. Three of them are to be injected into the asset injection to strip the gas and electricity sector.
The new power system looks at the power grid in the short term and energy storage in the medium and long term. In the structure of new power system, energy storage is the ballast to escort the development of new energy. We believe that there are two main ways to achieve carbon neutralization: 1) in the short term, large power grid and UHV construction to alleviate the problem of new energy consumption in the three northern regions. 2) In the medium and long term, energy storage is expected to bring about a continuous decline in energy storage manufacturing and operation costs due to technological breakthroughs. In the future, clean energy + energy storage will be the inevitable trend of the development of the energy industry. Power generation and consumption are instantaneous, and the power itself is difficult to store. Therefore, pumped storage is needed to undertake peak shaving, valley filling, frequency modulation and other functions. From the perspective of the whole power system, the application of energy storage can be divided into three scenarios: power generation side energy storage, grid side energy storage (including microgrid) and user side energy storage. At present, grid side energy storage is mainly the construction and operation of State Grid and China Southern Power Grid.
Leader of energy storage market: in 2020, pumped storage accounted for 94% of global energy storage and 89% of Chinese market. Pumped storage has become the leader of the current energy storage market because of its significant advantages of low cost, long service life and mature technology. China's current two-part price policy (capacity price + electricity price) adopts the mechanism of combining medium and long-term market transaction with spot market transaction. Pumped storage construction in foreign countries developed earlier, but due to the differences in power system, power supply structure and load characteristics, there are obvious differences in the construction and management of pumped storage power stations in different countries. The operation mode of pumped storage power station is closely related to the market system and investors. It is mainly divided into three modes: independent operation, unified operation of power grid and leasing system. About 85% of the pumped storage power stations in the world adopt the unified operation mode of power grid or lease system, and about 15% of the power stations obtain income by participating in the bidding in the power market.
Profit forecast and investment rating: if restructuring is not considered, we expect the company to achieve operating revenue of 2.414 billion yuan, 2.584 billion yuan and 2.838 billion yuan from 2022 to 2024, with a year-on-year increase of 11.6%, 7.0% and 9.8%, and net profit attributable to parent company of 116 million yuan, 84 million yuan and 102 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 638.92%, - 28.10% and 21.39%, corresponding to pe57 times, 80 times and 66 times; Considering the reorganization, we estimate that the net profit attributable to the parent company of shuangdiao company (hereinafter referred to as peak shaving and frequency modulation company of China Southern Power Grid, the same below) from 2022 to 2024 will be 1.1 billion yuan, 1.35 billion yuan and 2 billion yuan respectively. We estimate that the total market value of the company after listing will be about 39 billion yuan. Considering that it is the only pumped storage listing platform of China Southern Power Grid, it will be covered for the first time and given a "buy" rating.
Risk that the progress of assets reorganization is less than expected; Policy risk; Uncertainty risk of water inflow in the basin where the peak shaving hydropower station is located, etc
