\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 009 Miracle Automation Engineering Co.Ltd(002009) )
Key investment points
Event: Miracle Automation Engineering Co.Ltd(002009) and Xingheng power signed the strategic cooperation agreement. The two sides intend to cooperate in the field of waste power batteries and battery waste recycling, and jointly build a closed-loop industrial chain of waste power batteries recycling.
The combination of strong and strong forces creates a recycling system and goes deep into material recycling Miracle Automation Engineering Co.Ltd(002009) lithium battery recycling technology and scale advantages are outstanding. Xingheng power supply is the global leader in lithium batteries for light vehicles. The strategic cooperation between Miracle Automation Engineering Co.Ltd(002009) and Xingheng power includes 1) jointly building a waste power battery recycling system: Xingyuan power has a sound national sales network system and distributor network layout, providing strong channel support for waste battery recycling. The two sides will carry out in-depth cooperation on the waste battery recycling system. Xingheng is responsible for the orderly recycling of waste batteries and Miracle Automation Engineering Co.Ltd(002009) is responsible for the standardized treatment; 2) Deepen cooperation on battery material recycling and create a closed loop of battery recycling industry: Based on the co construction of waste battery recycling system and relying on Miracle Automation Engineering Co.Ltd(002009) the production capacity and layout in the field of battery material recycling, carry out in-depth cooperation in waste power battery recycling and processing, waste power battery sorting and processing, ladder utilization and recycled material processing, and jointly create a closed loop of battery recycling industry. 3) Explore other business cooperation.
Xingheng power is the world's leading lithium battery for light vehicles, with rapid capacity expansion and deepening layout recycling. 1) According to the first electric data, the sales volume of Xingheng power in 2020 and 2021 were 4.95gwh and 5.03gwh respectively, and the sales volume of lithium batteries for light vehicles ranked first in the world for four consecutive years from 2018 to 2021. 2) Xingheng power has actively expanded its production capacity to ensure the recovery. It has three production bases in Suzhou, Chuzhou and Yancheng. The production capacity reached 20gwh in 2022 and has doubled continuously since 2020. 3) Xingheng power actively arranged the recycling business and established Xingheng new material technology in July 2021 to improve the utilization rate of lithium battery resources. The scrapping cycle of small power batteries is short, the scrapping volume is large, the distribution network and distributors of Xingheng power supply are complete, and reverse logistics recycling is carried out at the same time.
Quantitative calculation: Xingheng power will generate 1614 tons of renewable lithium carbonate in 2024 and 6290 tons of renewable lithium carbonate by the end of 2021, which has become an important supplement to Miracle Automation Engineering Co.Ltd(002009) lithium battery recycling business channel. A we expect 5.42gwh of recyclable batteries and 1614 tons of renewable lithium carbonate in 2024. Assumptions are as follows: 1) in 2022, Xingheng power will sell 6.29gwh batteries (with an increase of 25%); 2) The lithium battery of light vehicle has a short retirement life, with a service life of 2-4 years, and 1 / 3 of it is retired every year. We estimate that the recyclable battery will be 5.42gwh in 2024. Referring to the lithium content of lithium manganate battery and the lithium recovery rate of 85%, it is estimated that 1614 tons of renewable lithium carbonate will be produced, accounting for 9.5% of the planned capacity of Miracle Automation Engineering Co.Ltd(002009) 2024. B we expect that by the end of 2021, the total installed battery is 21gwh and the renewable lithium carbonate is 6290 tons. Assumptions are as follows: 1) charged capacity of unit battery pack: in 2021, the company will install 5 million units, with an installed capacity of 5.03 GWH, and the charged capacity of a single group is about 1.01 kwh. With reference to the company's installed capacity of 21 million units by 2021, we expect the cumulative installed capacity to reach 21.13gwh. With reference to the lithium content of lithium manganate battery and 85% lithium recovery rate, 6290 tons of renewable lithium carbonate are expected. Xingheng's production capacity expanded rapidly and the recovery volume increased rapidly.
Profit forecast and investment rating: the strategic cooperation of Xingheng power is expected to improve the advantages of the company's recycling channels, expand the recycling channels and ensure the capacity utilization of the expansion project. We maintain the company's net profit attributable to the parent company of RMB 155 / 349 / 558 million from 2021 to 2023, EPS of RMB 0.41/0.92/1.47/share from 2021 to 2023, and the current corresponding PE is 40x / 18x / 11x, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk tip: the sales of new energy vehicles are less than expected, the project progress is less than expected, and the competition is intensified
