\u3000\u30 Zhongyan Technology Co.Ltd(003001) 24 Shenzhen Inovance Technology Co.Ltd(300124) )
Key investment points
In 2022q1, the revenue was + 35-45% and the net profit attributable to the parent company was + 5-15% year-on-year. The performance basically met our expectations. The company released the performance forecast of 2022q1, realizing a revenue of 4.61 ~ 4.95 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 35% ~ 45%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 680740 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 5% - 15%; Considering that the non recurring profit and loss is about 45.41 million yuan, the non attributable net profit of 633 ~ 698 million yuan will be deducted, with a year-on-year increase of + 1% ~ 12%. We expect the actual performance to be in the upper middle of the above range, and the revenue growth comes from the order carry forward at the end of 2021, the good growth of industrial control business and the high growth of new energy vehicle business. In 2022q1, the net interest rate attributable to the parent company / net interest rate deducted from non attributable to the parent company were 15% / 14% respectively, both year-on-year -4pct. The growth rate of net profit was lower than that of revenue, which was caused by the year-on-year decline of gross profit margin in the first quarter and the obvious increase of superimposed expense rate.
The gross profit margin and expense side are under pressure, and the profit margin is expected to recover throughout the year. In 2022q1, the gross profit margin decreased significantly year-on-year, but increased month on month: 1) the prices of major raw materials and chips in 2022q1 were at a high level; 2) The proportion of new energy vehicle business with relatively low gross profit increased; 3) 2021q1 gross profit margin is high base, reaching 39.3%. In terms of expenses, strategic businesses such as digitization and energy management are in the investment period, making the growth rate of R & D & management expenses in 2022q1 higher than that of revenue. Looking forward to 2022, in April, the company and the industry transmitted the cost pressure through the price increase of 5-15%, the gross profit rate is expected to repair upward, and the expense rate is expected to increase slightly year-on-year, so the net profit rate is expected to rise.
General automation: the company seizes the structural opportunity of advanced manufacturing sector, continuously improves the sales share and continues to accelerate the import substitution. In 2021, the scale of industrial control industry was + 16.8% year-on-year, and OEM was + 27.6% year-on-year; We expect 2022q1 OEM to increase by + 5-15% year-on-year and return to moderate growth. We expect that the revenue of industrial control in 2022q1 will increase by about 40% at the same time, which is far better than that of the industry: foreign capital continues to be out of stock, the company's raw materials are relatively sufficient and the substitution is accelerated; The scenery of superimposed lithium battery and photovoltaic is still strong (we expect the advanced manufacturing sector to account for 50% of the revenue of industrial control business +), driving the rapid growth of performance. In addition, industrial Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) production and sales are booming, and the structural growth is bright. We expect that in 2022q2, due to the high base in the same period and the superposition of the national epidemic, the raw material logistics link will be affected and there will be a slight pressure. Throughout the year, we expect the industrial control industry to reach 30% + the same increase, and the pace in the second half of the year is faster than that in the first half of the year.
New energy vehicles: in 2021, new power customers will continue to increase in volume + new customer projects will continue to increase in fixed points + ASP, and it is expected to be profitable in 2022. Main customers such as ideal one and Xiaopeng P7 continue to increase in volume. The revenue of Xinneng vehicle business is expected to reach 2.5-3 billion yuan in 2021, and the sales share and single vehicle value will continue to increase in the future. In 2022q1, we expect the revenue of the sector to continue to double year-on-year and decline slightly month on month, and it is expected to start making profits in the whole year.
Elevator: maintain steady growth. We expect that the elevator business in 2022q1 will increase by 20% year-on-year, and the shortage of chips / bulk price increase will put pressure on the gross profit margin of elevator parts. Throughout the whole year of 2022, with large supporting comprehensive solutions + elevator going to sea + post service market, it is expected to maintain a stable growth rate of 10-15%.
Profit forecast and investment rating: affected by the sharp rise in the price of raw materials, we kept the net profit attributable to the parent company in 2021 at 3.53 billion yuan, lowered the net profit attributable to the parent company in 202223 to 4.02 billion yuan (- 370 million yuan) / 5.19 billion yuan (- 500 million yuan) (assuming that the investment income of overseas M & a funds is 400 million yuan / 500 million yuan), respectively + 68% / + 14% / + 29% year-on-year, 43 times / 38 times / 29 times the current price PE respectively, and gave the target price of 76.0 yuan, Corresponding to 50 times PE in 2022, maintain the "buy" rating.
Risk tip: downstream demand does not meet expectations, new energy vehicle customer expansion is less than expected, competition intensifies, etc.
