\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 154 Baoxiniao Holding Co.Ltd(002154) )
Core view
Event: the company announced the 2021 performance report. In 2021, the operating revenue / net profit attributable to the parent company / net profit deducted from non attributable to the parent company were 4.451/4.64/414 billion yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 17.52% / 26.70% / 39.40%. The profit was lower than expected, mainly due to the company’s distribution of excess bonuses and the low base due to the reduction and exemption of protection and other expenses in the previous year; 21q4 realized income / net profit attributable to parent company / deduction of net profit not attributable to parent company of RMB 1.478/0.97/105 billion respectively, with a year-on-year increase of – 3.21% / – 22.68% / 3.95%.
The growth rate of 21h2 slowed down under the disturbance of external factors. In 2021, the revenues of Baoxiniao Holding Co.Ltd(002154) / haggis / kemiche & lefeiye & TB / BAONIAO / other businesses were 16.12/14.52/3.81/837/45 million yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 26.26% / 17.83% / 7.02% / 6.61% / 9.30%. Specifically, the growth rate in the first half of the year was strong, and the company accelerated the pace of opening stores in 21q3, but the growth in the second half of the year was weak Some brands showed negative growth: 21h1 and 21h2 Baoxiniao Holding Co.Ltd(002154) / haggis / kemiche & lefeiye & TB / BAONIAO increased by 63.54% / 48.38% / 41.87% / 14.12% and 6.98% / – 0.86% / – 13.14% / 2.54% respectively year-on-year Baoxiniao Holding Co.Ltd(002154) year, the brand continued to be younger, launched new categories of sports suits, opened up the market, successfully broke through the weak market in Central China in terms of channels, and expanded 93 stores. The income of hajis 2021h2 decreased slightly by 0.86%, mainly due to the interference of external factors such as epidemic and flood, especially the key areas of hajis operation, Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Shanghai, which were seriously affected; During the year, the brand launched the research and development of new products such as cloud series and hazzys playforever co branded models. At the same time, the company was newly authorized by hazzys luggage category, which is expected to further boost its performance. 21h2 resumed opening stores, but due to the impact of the epidemic, the contribution of opening stores was less, and the growth was mainly due to the improvement of store efficiency.
1) stores: by the end of 2021, the company had 1676 stores (direct sales 752 + franchise 924), with a net increase of 43 stores and 248 new stores during the year, including 98 / 150 new stores in 21h1 / 21h2 respectively. In terms of business division, there are 602 / 435 / 589 stores in shopping malls / shopping centers / roadside stores respectively, with a net increase of – 49 / 50 / 42. Among them, the proportion of stores in shopping centers has increased 2pct to 29%, and the optimization of channel structure has been accelerated; By brand, by the end of 2021, the number of stores in Baoxiniao Holding Co.Ltd(002154) / haggis / kemiche & lefeiye & TB was 796 / 401 / 258 respectively, with a net opening of 17 / 8 / – 22, and the store area was 1611 / 4.5916300 square meters, with a net increase of 42 / 0.280300 square meters respectively; 21h1 and 21h2 Baoxiniao Holding Co.Ltd(002154) / haggis opened – 7 / – 11 and 24 / 19 stores respectively, and 21h2 accelerated the opening of stores. 2) In terms of store efficiency: Baoxiniao Holding Co.Ltd(002154) / haggis / kemiche & lefeiye & TB / the overall single store efficiency of the company was 202 / 362 / 147 / 2580000 yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 24% / 15% / 16% / 14%, and the floor efficiency was 97 / 2.98/2.2917700 yuan / square meter respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 23% / 11% / 5% / 13%. The improvement of store efficiency and floor efficiency led to the growth of revenue and demonstrated the excellent operation ability of stores.
The excess bonus pushed up the management expenses, and the overall cost control of the company was relatively stable. In 2021, the company’s sales / management / R & D / financial expenses were RMB 1.765/3.29/0.76 / – 03 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 17.59% / 24.77% / 26.77% / – 175.81%. The management / R & D / financial expense rates were 39.64% / 7.93% / – 0.06% / 1.70% respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 0.02/0.43/0.13/ – 0.07pct. Among them, the increase in the management expense rate was mainly due to the company’s strengthening of performance incentives and the implementation of profit growth awards, and the low base due to the impact of the epidemic in the same period of last year, resulting in an increase of 57 million yuan in the salary expenditure of employees during the year; The negative financial expense rate is mainly due to the decrease of loans and the increase of interest on time bank deposits. On the whole, the expense side of the company is relatively stable. The income tax rate during the year was 22.15%, with a year-on-year decrease of 1.79 PCT, which was mainly affected by deferred income tax.
Profit forecast and investment suggestion: the company is affected by the epidemic in the short term, and the logic of long-term growth remains unchanged. The main brand Baoxiniao Holding Co.Ltd(002154) insists on expanding products (such as sports suits) to accelerate the youth, haggis is expected to continue to open stores and continue the high-quality growth, BAONIAO, as a leader of professional clothing, benefits from centralized procurement and standardized bidding, which is expected to grow steadily, and the profitability of small brands is expected to gradually improve. In 2021, while the company is exhibiting its stores, both the store efficiency and the floor efficiency will be improved, showing excellent store operation ability. At the end of the year, the company has newly obtained the agency right of haggis luggage category, which is expected to contribute to the revenue. In addition, the impact of one-time expenses during the year is expected to be eliminated in 2022, contributing to the performance flexibility. It is estimated that the income from 2022 to 2024 will be RMB 4.929/57.276634 billion, and the net profit attributable to the parent company will be RMB 564667/784 million. The corresponding PE is 9x / 8x / 7X, which is rated as “buy”.
Risk tips: repeated epidemic, exhibition stores not as expected, hazys brand renewal failure, systemic risk
