\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 078 Shandong Sun Paper Co.Ltd(002078) )
Events
On April 15, the company released its annual report. In 2021, the company achieved a revenue of 32 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 48.2%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 2.96 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 51.4%; Among them, 4q achieved a revenue of 8.28 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 39.2%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 190 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of - 67%.
Business analysis
Cultural paper is subject to weak demand + cost pressure. Affected by double reduction, suppression of imported paper and high energy cost, the revenue of 21a double offset paper / coated paper is 8.67/4.1 billion yuan (+ 20.3% / + 16.8%) and the gross profit margin is 16.0% / 19.7% respectively; Among them, 2h21 revenue was + 16.9% / - 10.2% year-on-year, and the gross profit margin was 5.1% / 5.6% (- 5.2 / - 13.3pct) respectively. Cost support & under the warming of supply and demand, the price of cultural paper has increased steadily since 1q22. At present, the inventory of the industrial chain has fallen to the historical average low level. The price increase letter of paper enterprises in February and March has been successfully implemented. The price of double offset paper is 6240 yuan / ton, which is + 630 yuan / ton compared with the end of December. The proportion of self supplied pulp of the company is high, and the profitability is weakened compared with the cost elasticity. It is optimistic about the quarterly warming trend of 1q starting ton profit.
Mainland high-end carton board & dissolved pulp support 2H profit. 1) The price of Lao paper box + board is RMB 13.6 billion, and the profit rate is RMB 13.6 billion; Among them, the revenue of 2h21 was 55.5 (+ 120.8%), and the gross profit margin was 14.6% (- 6.8pct) in the second half of the year, which was subject to the high sea freight and the rising cost of foreign waste. 2) Dissolved pulp: 21a revenue of 3.26 billion yuan (+ 49.5%), gross profit margin of 23%; The revenue of 2h21 was 1.42 billion yuan (+ 63.6%), and the gross profit margin was 22.3% (the same period last year - 9.9%). 1q22: carton board paper has entered the off-season, and the profit per ton is expected to drop to 300 yuan / ton month on month; The air of dissolved pulp remains high, and the net profit per ton of dissolved pulp in Laos is expected to be 14001500 yuan / ton.
4q net interest rate is under pressure, and the annual expense rate is well controlled. The rates of 21a sales / Management & R & D / finance expenses were 0.43% / 4.22% / 1.77% respectively, with a year-on-year rate of -0.05 / - 0.7 / - 0.7pct, of which the rate of 4q Management & R & D / finance expenses was 6.2% / 1.12%, with a year-on-year rate of + 1.9 / - 1.2pct.
Promote Nanning's 5.25 million ton Forest Pulp and paper integration project, and the medium and long-term growth logic is smooth. Since 4q21, 550000 tons of cultural paper, 120000 tons of household paper and 1 million tons of pulp production capacity of the company have been put into operation successively, contributing to the performance increment in 22 years. After the completion of Guangxi Nanning project, the company is expected to further coordinate in product structure optimization, logistics system improvement and sales channel construction, complete the strategic layout of Shandong Laos Guangxi base and consolidate its leading position.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions
We keep the profit forecast for 22-23 years unchanged. The EPS is expected to be 1.18/1.24 yuan and 1.35 yuan respectively in 24 years. The current share price corresponds to 10 / 10 / 9x PE in 20222024, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk tips
The risk of lower than expected price rise of paper products due to lower than expected downstream demand; The risk that the schedule of new production capacity is not up to expectations; The risk of ineffective cost rate control of the company; Risk of sharp fluctuations in raw material prices.
