\u3000\u30 Chongqing Baiya Sanitary Products Co.Ltd(003006) 27 Shanghai Huace Navigation Technology Ltd(300627) )
Key investment points:
Shanghai Huace Navigation Technology Ltd(300627) : excellent leader in high-precision satellite navigation and positioning hardware and solutions Shanghai Huace Navigation Technology Ltd(300627) is a leading enterprise in high-precision satellite navigation and positioning in China. Since its establishment in 2003, the company has focused on the core technology of high-precision navigation and positioning, and continued to build a high-precision positioning chip technology platform and a global satellite earth integrated enhanced network service platform. Its application directions include navigation and positioning timing, surveying and mapping and geographic information, unmanned driving in closed and semi closed scenes and other fields. At present, it has developed high-precision GNSS baseband chip "Xuanji", high-precision GNSS board, module, antenna and other basic devices, as well as a global satellite navigation and positioning solution platform with self-developed wide area enhanced service system as the core. In terms of integrated navigation technology, the company already has industry-leading core technologies such as tight coupling algorithm and inertial navigation calibration, which can provide a complete high-precision positioning solution for automatic driving of passenger cars. The performance of the company is excellent. The operating revenue and net profit attributable to the parent company continue to grow rapidly. From 2018 to 2021, the operating revenue CAGR reached 29.72% and the net profit CAGR reached 40.63%. The company adopts the business model of "data acquisition equipment + data application and solutions", adheres to the policy of "layout across the country and expand overseas", and gets close to downstream applications through the direct sales model, which has achieved good results, and continues to lead China in the net interest rate of high-precision positioning industry.
Solutions and operation services provide an incremental market for high-precision positioning, and automatic driving is expected to provide a broad market space in the future. High-precision satellite positioning usually adopts real-time dynamic carrier phase difference (RTK) technology and relies on navigation satellites and ground-based enhancement systems. On July 31, 2020, the beidou-3 global satellite navigation system has been fully completed. By the end of 2022, the satellite navigation and positioning reference station will be upgraded to fully receive beidou-3 data. At that time, the high-precision positioning of "Beidou" will be comparable to that of American GPS. Technological progress and industrialization are accompanied by favorable policies. The application fields of high-precision navigation are becoming richer and richer, and the market prospect is broad. According to the prediction of Zhiyan consulting, the scale of China's high-precision navigation market will reach 19.5 billion yuan in 2025, with an average annual compound growth rate of 12% from 2020 to 2025. From the development history of Trimble, a global leader in high-precision navigation and positioning, in the initial stage, Trimble focused on technology accumulation and product research and development, and then gradually extended the technology to downstream areas to become a solution provider. In recent years, with the transfer of user demand to digitization, Trimble began to focus on the development of software and service business, China Spacesat Co.Ltd(600118) navigation industry is expected to copy the development path of Trimble, Obtain the incremental market through the downstream expansion of the industrial chain. In addition, the integrated navigation system is expected to become the standard configuration of L3 / L3 + automatic driving of passenger cars. Considering that some L2 models will be equipped with or equipped with integrated navigation system as standard, we expect the market scale of on-board integrated navigation system to reach 6.9 billion yuan in 2025.
The solution is to build competitive barriers and maintain a high net profit rate through self-developed chips + downstream expansion. In recent years, Shanghai Huace Navigation Technology Ltd(300627) has always attached importance to R & D investment, providing customers with one-stop services through the combination of software and hardware, so as to improve product competitiveness and added value. In terms of chip research and development, the high-precision positioning and orientation baseband chip "Xuanji" with completely independent intellectual property rights has been successfully put into operation, which is expected to reduce product costs and broaden application scenarios. In terms of industrial chain, the company gradually extends downstream by providing solutions, drives solutions with products and services, expedites product demand with solutions, gives full play to synergy, and the overall profitability is expected to continue to improve. In terms of high-precision positioning of intelligent vehicles, the company aims at a broad market space and actively layout, and the solutions provided have been introduced into car enterprises such as Nezha automobile.
As the leader of China's high-precision satellite navigation and positioning, the profit forecast and investment rating company has an industry-leading net profit margin. With the company's continuous expansion to downstream application fields, the proportion of data application and solution business is expected to increase and drive the company's gross profit margin upward. We estimate that the operating revenue of the company from 2022 to 2023 will be 2.509/3.275 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 31% / 31% respectively, and the net profit attributable to the parent company will be 387 / 515 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 32% / 33% respectively. According to the closing price on April 14, the dynamic PE in 20222023 is 31 / 23 respectively, and the "buy" rating is given for the first time.
Risk warning: the R & D progress is not as expected; Overseas market expansion is less than expected; Intensified market competition; The downstream expansion of the industrial chain is less than expected; The application of intelligent vehicle high-precision positioning products is less than expected; The high-precision positioning industry is difficult to copy the growth path of foreign giants due to different environments.
