\u3000\u30 Beijing Telesound Electronics Co.Ltd(003004) 51 B-Soft Co.Ltd(300451) )
Medical informatization is the focus of investment and construction in the post epidemic period, with advantages in toughness and flexibility. The company has been deeply engaged in the industry for more than 20 years, and its growth is expected to remain above the industry. In particular, the "new his" construction cycle, electronic medical record supplement, medical insurance and public health and other important driving forces are underestimated. Maintain buy rating.
Key points supporting rating
Leading manufacturers grow with the industry. The company focuses on the medical IT field and has a complete product system and service network. The CAGR of revenue and net profit in recent 10 years is 18.1% and 25.1%, with good growth. In 2021, the amount of ten million orders increased by more than 40% at the same time, and the market share expanded, which also reflects the upward penetration of customer levels. The strength of industrial policies remains high; 3 ~ 5% of hospital end information investment in developed countries also guides the long-term space (54% of hospital investment in China accounts for less than 1%). IDC predicts that the scale of medical it in China will exceed 100 billion in 2024. In addition, this paper combs the driving forces that are not fully recognized as follows.
With the opening of the new his cycle, both companies have advantages. The market thinks that China's his construction is mature, but ignores that it has entered a dual new construction cycle: (1) his products with old technologies begin to upgrade to new versions (such as new development language, technical architecture, etc.); (2) Cloud his is gradually implemented. In particular, group medical institutions can achieve lower construction and operation and maintenance costs through cloud his. The company has obvious advantages in the former, and has quickly followed up through the "Huikang cloud 2.0" solution in the latter.
The construction space margin of electronic medical record is still sufficient. In 2018, a more mandatory policy in the field of electronic medical records was issued. The market believes that the next three years are the cycle of upgrading the level of electronic medical records, and there are still two margins: (1) the construction in various regions is uneven, and some later built regions need to be supplemented; (2) The detailed policies of pan-3a hospitals (such as private hospitals and traditional Chinese medicine hospitals) are still being introduced one after another. We estimate that the corresponding market space is nearly 40 billion yuan, which is equivalent to or even exceeding the volume in the early stage.
The construction of medical insurance has ushered in overweight, and the public health platform has long-term logic. The medical insurance bureau is accelerating the information construction, and the DRGs / Dip system welcomes the 10 billion market; The company won many provincial and ministerial medical insurance projects and became the "core of new medical insurance". Public health needs such as great health and connectivity have existed for a long time, and the company's Zhongshan model has been successfully replicated in Wenzhou and other places. In addition, the leading position has been strengthened by uniting with giants such as Ping An and Huawei.
Valuation
It is estimated that the net profit from 2022 to 2024 will be RMB 530 / 680 / 840 million, and the EPS will be RMB 0.35/0.44/0.54 (considering the later recovery and investment increase of the hospital end construction, the downward revision will be 17% ~ 19%), and the corresponding PE will be 20x / 16 / 13X respectively. The valuation fell to an all-time low and was nearly 35% lower than the comparable caliber. Maintain buy rating.
Main risks of rating
The financial input is less than expected; The release of hospital orders is delayed; The policy was less than expected.
