\u3000\u3 Guangdong Shaoneng Group Co.Ltd(000601) 952 Jiangsu Provincial Agricultural Reclamation And Development Co.Ltd(601952) )
Event: the company released its annual report for 2021, and achieved a total operating revenue of 10.64 billion yuan, yoy + 23.43%; Net profit attributable to parent company: 737 million yuan, yoy + 10.06%; Deduct the net profit not attributable to the parent company of RMB 588 million, yoy + 5.08%; In the fourth quarter alone, the company achieved a total operating revenue of 3.392 billion yuan, yoy + 24.16%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 195 million yuan, yoy + 32.65%; Deduct the net profit not attributable to the parent company of 151 million yuan, yoy + 26.74%.
The main grain planting business has made another success, and the sales strategy has been adjusted flexibly. In the future, it will continue to benefit from the boom in grain prices. The company's annual planting industry achieved a revenue of 3.177 billion yuan (yoy-3.14%), and the gross profit margin increased by 5.4% over the previous year, including 1.343 billion yuan (YoY + 1.55%) for large wheat planting, and the gross profit increased by 6.8% over the previous year; The revenue of rice planting reached 1.55 billion yuan (yoy-10.74%), and the gross profit increased by 4.1% over the previous year. The company's high-yield advantage is stable. The average yield of wheat per mu in the headquarters is 1147 kg, the yield of wheat per mu in the expansion base is 927 kg, and the yield of rice is 1101 kg, both reaching a record high. In addition, the company increased rape planting and achieved a revenue of 31.39 million yuan in the whole year.
During the reporting period, the company's planting revenue decreased slightly, mainly due to the adjustment of the sales rhythm of rice planting business - the sharp increase of ending inventory and the year-on-year decrease of sales. In addition, in the context of declining revenue, the gross profit margin of the company has increased significantly. We believe that it is mainly due to: (1) the depreciation of leased cultivated land use right assets confirmed according to the new leasing standards has decreased compared with the amortization of original land contracting fees, so the amount and proportion of planting land contracting fees in operating costs have decreased; (2) Excellent cost control. Under the background of the sharp rise in the prices of chemical fertilizer and agricultural materials in the market, the increase of direct materials and direct labor of the company is small (no more than 10%); (3) During the reporting period, the grain market was good, and the prices of wheat, wheat and rice increased year-on-year. Follow up attention will be paid to the rice planting area, the impact of the epidemic on spring sowing in Jilin and the fixed yield of summer grain. We expect that rice will relay wheat to become the main force of the subsequent grain rise.
Finally, on February 18, 2022, the company signed the supplementary agreement to the land contract agreement with Nongken group (the contract period is from November 01, 2021 to October 31, 2041). The contracted area was changed to 955000 mu (down 1.8% compared with the contract in the previous five years), and the contract fee was 361.64 yuan / mu / year (down 9.2% compared with the contract in the previous five years). We believe that the decline of the contracted area and contract fee will help the company control the rise of operating costs in the future, Continue to maintain the company's low-cost advantage in the same industry.
The sales price of seeds rose at the same time, and the layout outside the province blossomed at many points: Dahua seed industry, a wholly-owned subsidiary, sold 382900 tons of crop seeds (including wool seeds) (YoY + 1.43%), and the seed industry achieved a revenue of 1.721 billion yuan (YoY + 29.07%). During the reporting period, Dahua seed industry accelerated the expansion of markets outside the province, and the proportion of sales of rice and wheat seeds outside the province increased significantly.
The rice oil agricultural service sector contributed to the increase of income: (1) rice industry: the wholly-owned subsidiary suken rice industry sold 345700 tons of all kinds of rice and 1094800 tons of rice and wheat in the whole year, realizing a revenue of 4.223 billion yuan (YoY + 28.11%). Based on the civil grain market, suken rice industry actively developed a variety of new products and developed industrial grain at the same time. (2) Edible oil: Dongguan Golden Sun Abrasives Co.Ltd(300606) grain and oil, a holding subsidiary, sold 310100 tons of various vegetable oils throughout the year, achieving a revenue of 3.037 billion yuan (YoY + 8.03%) and a gross profit margin of 8.5% (a decrease of 0.52% compared with the previous year). In the face of the complex oil and oil market situation, the company was able to adjust its sales strategy in time to ensure a stable gross profit level. (3) Agricultural Service: the company's agricultural materials trade business achieved a revenue of 1.948 billion yuan (YoY + 43.56%), served 7720 large households and a socialized service area of 6.459 million mu.
Focus on industrial development, capacity expansion and efficiency increase, and steadily promote project construction. In the first half of 2021, the company and Suzhou Agricultural Development Group jointly established Suzhou suken, speeding up the pace of land expansion, and expanding the land area of 18000 mu in the first phase; In the whole year, the total investment in agricultural infrastructure was 787272 million yuan, the standard farmland was increased by 55000 mu, and the grain storage capacity was increased by 18000 tons. Meanwhile, the seed production base county project was fully implemented, and the demonstration and implementation of " Jiangsu Nonghua Intelligent Agriculture Technology Co.Ltd(000816) science and technology park construction project" were steadily promoted. The company is a model of large-scale planting in China, and gradually deepen the layout of the whole industrial chain, which is in line with the national industry direction of building a 10 billion planting leader. Relying on the advantages of low cost, combined with the development needs of shareholders and local governments in Jiangsu, whether it is the improvement of planting area or the expansion of downstream products, the company will maintain a steady expansion trend for a long time and become a solid foundation for the rise of the company's valuation.
Investment advice: maintain the "buy" rating. Considering the increase of the company's trade volume and the rise of the overall planting cost of the industry, we adjust the profit forecast. We expect the company's revenue to be 11.68/12.57/13.59 billion yuan from 2022 to 2024 respectively (10.96 billion yuan and 11.77 billion yuan in the previous 22 and 23 years respectively), and the net profit to be 97410631121 million yuan respectively (1.14 billion yuan and 1.17 billion yuan in the previous 22 and 23 years respectively), EPS is 0.71/0.77/0.81 yuan respectively (0.83 and 0.85 in the previous 22 and 23 years respectively), corresponding to the current PE is 21.06/19.28/18.29 times respectively, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk tips: raw material price fluctuation risk, natural disaster risk, industrial policy and government subsidy policy change risk, etc.
