\u3000\u3 Shengda Resources Co.Ltd(000603) 369 Jiangsu King'S Luck Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(603369) )
Performance review
The company released its annual report on April 15 and achieved a revenue of 6.406 billion yuan in 21 years, a year-on-year increase of + 25.12%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was RMB 2.029 billion, a year-on-year increase of + 29.50%. Among them, the revenue of 21q4 was 1.073 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 15.81%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 330 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 30.39%, and the performance was close to the median value of the preliminary notice.
Business analysis
The product structure continues to upgrade, Q4 has high pre harvest and accumulated potential energy. 1) By product, in the past 21 years, the income of special a + class (more than 300 yuan) / special a class (100300 yuan) / class A (50-100 yuan) / class B (20-50 yuan) / class C (10-20 yuan) was 41.7/17.1/2.6/1.4/0.8 billion yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 35.7% / + 14.1% / + 4.4% / - 13.3% / - 9.8%, the proportion of special a + class increased 5pct to 65%, and the product structure was upgraded rapidly. In the 21st year, the total sales volume was 32000 tons, the volume of special a + increased by 22%, the price increased by 11%, or the V series with high price increased by 120% (q1-3 growth rate), superimposed with the price increase of new 4K generation. We expect that Guoyuan series accounts for more than 80% and V series accounts for 8% (V3 / v6 / V9 accounts for 50%, more than 10% and more than 30%). 2) By region, in 21 years, the revenue of Huai'an / Nanjing / Southern Jiangsu / Central Jiangsu / Yancheng / Huaihai region / outside the province was 1.27/15.8/8.5/8.7/7.6/6.1/450 billion yuan respectively, a year-on-year increase of + 18.0% / + 19.8% / + 32.5% / + 32.9% / + 15.0% / + 44.9% / + 36.1%, 103 new dealers (88 outside the province), and the growth rate of Huaihai, outside the province, Southern Jiangsu and central Jiangsu was higher. 3) Quarter by quarter, 21q4 special a + class / special a class revenue was + 22% / + 14% year-on-year, and the revenue of Huai'an / Nanjing / Southern Jiangsu / Central Jiangsu / Yancheng / Huaihai / outside the province was + 9% / + 12% / + 11% / + 32% / + 16% / + 11% / + 32% year-on-year. The revenue outside the province and central Jiangsu maintained a high growth. At the end of Q4, the contract liabilities were + 88.6% year-on-year, and the sales cash receipts were + 48.5% year-on-year. Shengli made a good start in the coming year.
Q4 gross profit margin increased and profitability improved. The net profit rate in the 21st year was + 1.1pct year on year, and the gross profit rate / sales rate / management rate was + 3.5 / - 2.0 / - 0.4pct year on year. 21q4 net profit margin is + 3.4pct year-on-year, of which gross profit margin is + 15.2pct year-on-year. It is expected that the structural optimization + withdrawal discount will be reduced; The sales / management rate was - 5.1 / - 1.0pct year-on-year, and the operating efficiency was improved.
Focus on equity incentive in the short term, and upgrade the price in the medium and long term or move to the next stage. The company set a 22-year revenue target of 7.5 billion yuan and strive for 8 billion yuan (with an increase of 17-25%); The net profit target is 2.25 billion yuan and strive for 2.35 billion yuan (an increase of 11-16%). When the target net interest rate goes down, we think: 1) equity incentive or increase management expenses; 2) Historically, profit completion has been higher than the target ceiling (e.g. 21 years). Recently, the epidemic situation in East China has been disturbed, but the epidemic prevention policy is positive. At present, the stock repurchase is completed and the management handover is completed, and the equity incentive is expected to speed up the implementation. In the medium and long term, Jiangsu's secondary high-end ceiling is opened, and the expansion speed of Tian Jin Bohai Chemical Co.Ltd(600800) yuan is ahead. After meng6 + takes the lead, it has done consumer cultivation. V3 is expected to further upgrade with the help of Guoyuan 4K basic disk, and V9 is positioned to establish a brand image. The company refined its internal skills (equity incentive, operation of sub brand business division, V99 alliance), and the positive marginal improvement of fundamentals; In the medium and long term, we will continue to enjoy the upgrade bonus, and the target of V series outside the province accounts for 20% in 25 years.
Profit forecast
It is estimated that the revenue growth rate will be 22% / 25% / 21%, the profit growth rate will be 19% / 25% / 22%, the EPS will be 1.92/2.40/2.94 yuan, and the corresponding PE will be 23 / 18 / 15x, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk tips
The risk of repeated epidemic, the risk of intensified regional competition, the low expected rate of consumption upgrading, and food safety problems.
