\u3000\u3 Guangdong Shaoneng Group Co.Ltd(000601) 689 Ningbo Tuopu Group Co.Ltd(601689) )
Event:
Ningbo Tuopu Group Co.Ltd(601689) released the annual report of 2021: in 2021, the company realized an operating revenue of 11.463 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 76.05%; The net profit attributable to the shareholders of the listed company was 1.017 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 61.93%; The net profit attributable to the shareholders of the listed company after non deduction was 971 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 68.89%.
Key investment points:
Q4 revenue was + 66% year-on-year, and the effect of fee control was good throughout the year. In 2021q4, the company achieved an operating revenue of 3.640 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 66.01%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 264 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 9.62%; Gross profit margin 17.55%, year-on-year + 1.46pct; The net interest rate was 7.05%, with a year-on-year increase of -3.95pct. Throughout the year, the company’s gross profit margin was 19.88%, a year-on-year increase of -2.81pc; The net interest rate was 8.47%, with a year-on-year increase of -1.21pct; During the period, the expense rate was 8.64%, with a year-on-year rate of -2.97pct, and the effect of fee control was good.
All businesses maintained high growth. In 2021, the company achieved 1) shock absorber revenue of 3.347 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of + 30.73%, gross profit margin of 23.82%, and a year-on-year increase of -2.66 PCT; 2) The revenue of interior functional parts was 3.578 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 60.89%, and the gross profit margin was 17.25%, a year-on-year increase of -0.73pct; 3) Chassis system revenue was 2.624 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of + 97.21% and a gross profit margin of 17.68%, with a year-on-year increase of + 2.41 PCT; 4) Automotive electronics was 182 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 2.21%, and the gross profit margin was 26.30%, a year-on-year increase of -2.23 PCT; 5) The new business thermal management system is RMB 1.285 billion, with a gross profit margin of 17.83%.
Business synergy is becoming more and more obvious, and continue to explore tier0 5. Cooperation mode. The company actively distributes new energy vehicle related businesses, is an important supplier in the field of automobile lightweight chassis, and has achieved a breakthrough in thermal management system. In 2021, the company sold 513900 sets of thermal management systems, including integrated heat pump assembly, multi-way valve, electronic water pump, electronic expansion valve, etc. In addition, relying on the accumulated experience in IBS, rubber and vacuum pump, the company quickly developed the air suspension system project, with a single vehicle supporting 5 Tcl Technology Group Corporation(000100) 00 yuan, which has a large market space. So far, the company has completed the layout of eight business segments, namely NVH damping system, interior and exterior decoration system, lightweight body, intelligent cabin components, thermal management system, chassis system, air suspension system and intelligent driving system. At present, the maximum supporting amount of single vehicle is about 30000 yuan, promoting the key customer strategy and continuously exploring tier0 Level 5 cooperation mode. The perfect layout of the company’s business is inseparable from the continuous investment in R & D and innovation. In 2021, the company’s R & D expenditure was 502 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 41.41%.
We believe that, based on the advantages of NVH damping system, the company cut into the automobile suspension track, raised funds to invest in the electronic vacuum pump EVP and intelligent braking system IBS to power the automobile electronic business, laid out the automobile thermal management based on the research and development advantages of IBS, and further expanded to the sliding sector chassis products through the perfect business layout. So far, the business synergy advantage of the company has been gradually highlighted, and it is expected to continue to be laid out in the existing business in the future, Continuously improve the supporting value of single vehicle.
As a core supplier of Tesla, Q1 performed well in 2022. Tesla, the company’s key customer, delivered 936000 vehicles worldwide in 2021, a year-on-year increase of + 87%. From January to March 2022, Tesla sold 182174 vehicles domestically, a year-on-year increase of 162.86%. Affected by the Shanghai epidemic, Tesla‘s Shanghai plant stopped production on March 16 and 17, and then stopped production again on March 28. So far, it has not returned to work. Therefore, we lowered our expectation of Tesla‘s global sales in 2022 to 1.65 million, including 750000 domestic Tesla. The company benefited from the high sales volume of Tesla, a major customer, and the Q1 performance achieved a good start. In the performance forecast of the first quarter, it is expected to achieve an operating revenue of RMB 3.630-3.730 billion, a year-on-year increase of + 50% – 54%; The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 346386 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 41% – 57%.
The customer structure is excellent, and the income breaks through the ceiling of the traditional system. The company’s customers mainly include Tesla, Geely, GM, etc., and have grown rapidly in the supply system of Weilai, ideal and Xiaopeng. At the same time, it has also entered new forces such as rivian and lucid, of which the value of the supporting rivian bicycle is as high as 11000 yuan. We are optimistic that Tesla will become the largest customer and new forces will enter the domestic suppliers of Tesla industrial chain in the top five customers. This customer structure also drives suppliers to break through the income ceiling of the traditional supporting system.
Ningbo Tuopu Group Co.Ltd(601689) , the new power of parts. The company has a comprehensive layout of new businesses such as integrated die casting, wire controlled braking, air suspension, electrically adjustable steering wheel, electric door, sliding chassis and so on. Recently, the company mass produced 7200T integrated die-casting rear cabin in Hangzhou Bay manufacturing base, supporting Gaohe automobile, and became the first parts supplier to mass produce super large integrated aluminum alloy structural parts; The company’s air suspension is planned to be officially put into operation in June 2022. After the new plant is put into operation, it can achieve an annual output of 2 million air suspension to meet the supporting requirements of 500000 vehicles per year; The company’s latest generation of intelligent braking system ibs-pro is expected to be mass produced this year to meet the supporting needs of 500000 vehicles, and adopt a more integrated one box brake by wire solution; The company has also laid out electrically adjustable steering wheel and electric door. At the same time, the company can also provide system level integrated skateboard chassis solutions from thermal management, intelligent braking, steering by wire, electric power steering, air suspension and so on. We believe that Ningbo Tuopu Group Co.Ltd(601689) is a new force of parts and is expected to become an international supplier of auto parts in the era of intelligent electric.
Profit forecast and investment rating we are optimistic about the expansion of the company’s projects in integrated die casting, air suspension, intelligent braking system IBS and thermal management system. It is estimated that the company’s main business income from 2022 to 2024 will be 16.7 billion yuan, 22.4 billion yuan and 28.8 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 46%, 34% and 28%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was RMB 1.7 billion, 2.3 billion and 3.2 billion, with a year-on-year growth rate of 67%, 38% and 35%; EPS is 1.54, 2.13 and 2.87 yuan, corresponding to 32, 23 and 17 times of PE. The valuation is reasonable and maintains the “buy” rating of the company.
Risk Tips 1) the price of raw materials continues to rise; 2) International shipping prices continued to rise; 3) The sales volume of new energy vehicles is less than expected; 4) The company’s new customer expansion is less than expected; 5) The sales volume of key customers of the company is lower than expected; 6) The company’s new business capacity is lower than expected.
