\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 353 Yantai Jereh Oilfield Services Group Co.Ltd(002353) )
Event: the company released its annual report for 2021. In 2021, it realized an operating revenue of RMB 8.776 billion, a year-on-year increase of 5.80%, a net profit attributable to the parent of RMB 1.586 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 6.17%, and a net profit not attributable to the parent of RMB 1.479 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 11.82%; Slightly lower than market expectations.
In 2021, revenue maintained a steady growth trend, and the profitability was dragged down by the rise in bulk & shipping prices.
(1) growth analysis: in 2021, the company's revenue increased by 5.80% year-on-year, and the net profit attributable to the parent decreased by 6.17% year-on-year. The main reasons are: ① the company's revenue from oil and gas equipment manufacturing and technical services reached 7.056 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.47%; ② The global covid-19 epidemic continues and the epidemic prevention and control has entered the normalization stage. The rising prices of raw materials such as bulk commodities and high international shipping prices have brought great pressure to enterprises.
(2) profitability analysis: the gross profit margin of sales in 2021 was 34.86%, down 3.04 PCT year-on-year; Mainly affected by the price rise of bulk raw materials and shipping costs, the gross profit margin of oil and gas equipment manufacturing and technical services decreased by 2.06 PCT, the gross profit margin of maintenance, transformation and parts sales decreased by 6.49 PCT, and the gross profit margin of environmental protection engineering services decreased by 9.35 PCT. In 2021, the net sales interest rate was 18.36%, down 2.40pct year-on-year, mainly due to the decline in the expense rate during the period under the advantage of scale, in which the sales / management / financial expense rates were 4.93%, 4.20% and 0.24% respectively, up + 0.45pct, + 0.64pct and -1.53pct respectively year-on-year.
(3) analysis of operating capacity and operating cash flow: the company's operating capacity decreased slightly. In 2021, the company's accounts receivable turnover days were 154.71 days, with a year-on-year increase of 19.48 days. The net cash flow from operating activities reached 808 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 156.96%, a record high, which shows that the company's production and operation are stable; However, the amount is lower than the net profit attributable to the parent company, which is mainly due to the increase of new orders, the need to purchase a large number of raw materials, order in advance and pay in advance, and the inventory accounts for more money; Production, delivery and collection of products take time, and there are many receivables.
(4) analysis of R & D Investment: Based on high-end equipment manufacturing, the company strengthens R & D innovation and always maintains the leading position of products; In 2021, the company's R & D expenses reached 316 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.09%, accounting for 3.60% of revenue; The company launched the first set of 3.5-inch large-diameter coiled tubing operation skid set equipment in China, which was applied to the "deep sea No. 1" energy station of China's first 1500 meter self operated deep-water atmospheric field; China's first new spiral drying equipment for sludge reduction and integrated double spiral thermal phase separation equipment were introduced.
(5) Order Analysis: the global oil and gas upstream activities continued to pick up, and the new orders signed by the company significantly increased to a new high; In 2021, the newly signed orders of the company reached 14.791 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 51.73%, a record high; At the end of 2021, the stock orders were 8.86 billion yuan (the order amount includes tax, excluding framework agreement, winning the bid but not signing the contract, etc.).
The situation of the global oil and gas industry continues to improve. China will continue to vigorously develop oil and gas resources during the 14th five year plan.
(1) in 2021, the international oil price surged and the global fracturing equipment market grew rapidly. Although covid-19 epidemic is still spreading around the world, with the continuous improvement of vaccination rate, most major economies have opened new business activities and relaxed travel restrictions, and the global economy has achieved an overall recovery; According to the world bank's global economic outlook, the global economy is expected to grow by 5.5% in 2021 and 4.1% in 2022. Economic growth has pushed up the demand for energy and minerals such as oil and natural gas. There is a partial imbalance between world oil and gas supply and demand, and the international oil and gas price has rebounded sharply. In 2021, the international oil price fluctuated and climbed. The average price of WTI crude oil futures was us $68.01/barrel, with an annual increase of more than 55%, the largest annual increase in 12 years. The average price of Brent crude oil futures was US $70.94/barrel, with an annual increase of more than 53.6%, the largest annual increase in five years. The situation of the oil and gas industry continues to improve, and the global upstream activities of oil and gas pick up; According to the report of spears & Association, the global oilfield equipment and service market expenditure in 2021 was US $201675 billion, a year-on-year increase of 3.46%, and the fracturing equipment market scale was US $15.667 billion, a year-on-year increase of 19.21%.
(2) under the background of national energy security strategy, China's unconventional oil and gas development has developed rapidly. 2021 is the first year of China's 14th five year plan. Petrochina Company Limited(601857) enterprises continue to strengthen exploration and development, crude oil production continues to increase steadily, and natural gas production increases rapidly, including 199 million tons of crude oil, an increase of 2.1%, and 205.26 billion cubic meters of natural gas, an increase of 8.2%. Unconventional oil and gas resources have broad prospects and will become an important strategic replacement for China's conventional oil and gas resources; In 2021, China will produce 2.4 million tons of shale oil and 23 billion cubic meters of shale gas. During the 14th Five Year Plan period, China will continue to vigorously develop oil and gas resources. The rapid development of China's unconventional oil and gas resources has brought new opportunities to equipment manufacturing and technical service companies.
We actively arranged the lithium battery cathode material project, and achieved certain results in capital operation.
(1) while expanding and strengthening the oil and gas equipment sector, the company began to lay out new energy industries such as lithium battery cathode materials. Through extensive market research, demonstration and technical reserves, the company implements the diversification strategy according to the national deployment requirements of "carbon peak and carbon neutralization". In 2021, the company will enter the field of new energy, implement the 100000 ton graphite negative electrode material integration project of lithium-ion battery in Tianshui, Gansu Province, and cooperate with Zhao Jinbao team of Jiageng innovation laboratory to implement the 18000 ton silicon-based composite negative electrode material project of lithium-ion battery in Xiamen, Fujian Province and other places. Through the implementation of the above negative electrode material project, accelerate the Shenzhen New Industries Biomedical Engineering Co.Ltd(300832) integrated layout of the company and accelerate the formation of the dual main business strategy of "oil and gas industry" and "new energy industry". Relying on the rich experience and technology accumulation in the R & D and manufacturing management of high-end industrial products, the company makes full use of the resource advantages of Xiamen, Tianshui and other places to enhance the overall strength and market competitive advantage of the company, grasp the broad opportunities of the future lithium battery cathode material market and promote the overall development of the company.
(2) the fixed increase plan was approved by the CSRC, and the holding subsidiary was split and listed. Considering the company's digital transformation and the business needs for the industrialization of new energy intelligent fracturing equipment and core components, the company launched the relevant scheme of non-public offering of shares to raise funds of no more than 2.5 billion yuan in 2021, which has been reviewed and approved by the development and Examination Committee of China Securities Regulatory Commission. The company actively responded to the relevant national policies on "capital market better serving the development of private economy" and promoted the spin off of its holding subsidiary Deshi shares, which was listed on the gem of Shenzhen Stock Exchange on January 17, 2022.
Maintain the "buy" rating. Not considering the impact of fixed increase issuance on the dilution of the company's share capital for the time being, and considering the impact of bulk price increase and sea freight increase on the company, we lowered the company's profit forecast. It is estimated that the company's revenue from 2022 to 2024 will be 11.181 billion yuan, 12.814 billion yuan and 14.553 billion yuan respectively; Year on year growth of 27.41%, 14.60% and 13.57% respectively; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 2.085 billion yuan, 2.533 billion yuan and 3.007 billion yuan respectively (the predicted value from 2022 to 2023 before adjustment was 2.466 billion yuan and 2.868 billion yuan respectively), with a year-on-year increase of 31.43%, 21.49% and 18.73% respectively; EPS is 2.18 yuan, 2.64 yuan and 3.14 yuan respectively (the predicted values from 2022 to 2023 before adjustment are 2.57 yuan and 2.99 yuan respectively); According to the share price on April 15, 2022, the corresponding PE is 18.4, 15.2 and 12.8 times respectively. As a leading oil and gas field equipment and technology engineering service provider, the company will fully benefit from the development of unconventional oil and gas resources in China and the transformation process of world energy to cleaner. Its performance is expected to continue to grow steadily and maintain the "buy" rating.
Risk tips: the risk of falling crude oil and natural gas prices, the risk of intensified market competition, the risk of the development of low-carbon energy system on the development of the industry, the risk of overseas income facing the crisis of some countries and exchange rate changes, the risk of overseas laws and policies, the risk of covid-19 virus epidemic, the risk of partial transformation failure of the company's industry, the risk of uncertainty caused by the conflict between Russia and Ukraine on the company's Russian business The uncertain impact of fixed increase issuance.
