\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 895 Guizhou Chanhen Chemical Corporation(002895) )
Event 1: on the evening of April 15, the company released its 2021 annual report. During the reporting period, the company achieved a revenue of 2.53 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 42.36%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 368 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 157.88%; The net profit attributable to the parent company after non deduction was 343 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 201.41%. In 2021q4, the company achieved a revenue of 859 million yuan, an increase of 73.54% year-on-year and 29.17% month on month; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 156 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 156 million yuan and a month on month increase of 45.79%.
Event 2: on the evening of April 15, the company released the first quarterly report of 2022. During the reporting period, the company achieved a revenue of 609 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 57.12%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 104 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 205.13%, of which the net profit attributable to the parent company after deduction was 102 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 326.36%.
Event 3: on the evening of April 15, the company released the 2022 plan for non-public development of a shares, which announced that the company plans to raise no more than 3.529 billion yuan (including the capital) through non-public offering of no more than 100 million shares, which will be used to invest in the construction of 120000 t / a food grade purified phosphoric acid project, 100000 t / a food grade purified phosphoric acid project Jigongling phosphate mine will build a new 2.5 million T / a mining project, supplement working capital and repay bank loans.
Comments:
The price of phosphorus chemical products increased greatly, and the company’s performance improved significantly. Benefiting from the high prosperity of the phosphorus chemical industry, the prices of the main products of Q1 company, such as fire grade monoammonium phosphate and feed grade calcium dihydrogen phosphate, increased significantly year-on-year in 2021 and 2022. In 2021, the average sales prices of monoammonium phosphate and calcium dihydrogen phosphate of the company were 3458 yuan / ton and 3301 yuan / ton respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 28.98% and 33.87% respectively. In Q1 of 2022, the average sales prices of monoammonium phosphate and calcium dihydrogen phosphate of the company were 4331 yuan / ton and 4248 yuan / ton respectively, further increasing by 25.25% and 28.70% respectively compared with the average sales price in 2021. In addition, benefiting from the expansion of the company’s phosphate rock production capacity, in 2021 and 2022 Q1, while meeting the company’s own phosphate rock needs, the company has surplus phosphate rock that can be sold externally. In 2021, the sales volume of self-produced phosphate rock of the company reached 1047200 tons, realizing an income of 309 million yuan. In 2022, the company’s fixed growth and convertible bond projects will be put into operation successively, and 200000 tons of iron phosphate capacity will be added at the same time. On the one hand, the types and sales volume of phosphorus chemical products of the company will increase significantly, so as to broaden the business territory of the company in the field of phosphorus chemical industry; On the other hand, the company’s supply capacity of raw materials such as washing, beneficiation and sulfuric acid will be further enhanced, so as to reduce the cost of raw materials and improve the profitability of the company.
It is proposed to increase the production capacity of purified phosphoric acid and phosphate rock by 3.529 billion yuan, improve the industrial chain structure and enhance the advantages of enterprises. Through this fixed increase, the company will expand the production capacity of 220000 tons of food grade purified phosphoric acid, improve the comprehensive utilization efficiency of the company’s low-grade phosphate rock, and enrich the product structure of phosphorus chemical industry. 120000 T / A and 100000 t / a purified phosphoric acid production capacity are built in Shuanglong Industrial Park of Fuquan economic development zone and the existing production plant of Fuquan city respectively, with corresponding investment of 1.295 billion yuan and 659 million yuan respectively, and the construction period is 15 and 12 months respectively. The purified phosphoric acid production capacity project is one of the important components of the “mineralization integrated new energy material recycling industry project” planned by the company in the early stage. In the follow-up, priority will be given to ensuring the supply of raw materials for the company’s iron phosphate production line, and the rich part can also be sold externally, so as to enrich the product structure of the company’s phosphorus chemical industry. In addition, under the background of the current supply contraction of yellow phosphorus due to energy consumption, there is also a risk of decline in the supply of thermal phosphoric acid. The company’s production based on the wet purification phosphoric acid route can effectively fill the market gap and obtain higher operating profits with lower production costs. In addition, the company will invest 1.056 billion yuan in the capacity construction of 2.5 million tons / year of jigongling phosphate mine. Up to now, the company has obtained the mining license of jigongling phosphate mine. The total resource of jigongling phosphate mine has reached 82.53 million tons, with an average grade of 27.47%. The overall phosphate mine resources are high-quality and rich. At the same time, jigongling phosphate mine is only 6km away from the luoweitang production plant under construction, which is conducive to the company’s ore transportation. After the completion of jigongling phosphate mine, the 3 million T / a production capacity of the original Xiaoba and Xinqiao phosphate mines will meet the phosphate rock demand of the “mineralization integrated new energy material recycling industry project” of the company’s two bases in Fuquan city and the phosphate rock demand of traditional phosphorus chemical products. The company also holds 49% equity of LAOHUDONG phosphate mine. The overall production capacity of LAOHUDONG phosphate mine is planned to be 5 million tons / year. In the future, it will mainly provide raw material guarantee for the “mineralization integration” project located in Weng’an county, Guizhou Province.
Comprehensive layout of phosphorus, fluorine and lithium, and deepening the transformation of new energy. On September 16, 2021, the company announced the cooperation project with GuoXuan holdings and Fuquan Municipal People’s government, planning to build a million ton iron phosphate production capacity, and will invest in the construction of a 1 million ton / year iron phosphate production line and a 100000 ton / year battery grade lithium iron phosphate production line in two phases from 2021 to 2026. The company announced on December 3, 2021 that it plans to build a Shanghai Pudong Development Bank Co.Ltd(600000) T / a iron phosphate project in Weng’an county with Sunwoda Electronic Co.Ltd(300207) jointly. In 2022, the company will invest 200000 tons of iron phosphate capacity, of which 100000 tons / year of iron phosphate capacity will be completed and put into operation in the first half of 2022, and the remaining 100000 tons / year of iron phosphate capacity will be completed and put into operation by the end of 2022. In addition, the company will cooperate with Mianyang Fulin Precision Co.Ltd(300432) to build lithium dihydrogen phosphate production capacity, and the company also shares in downstream lithium iron phosphate production enterprises. In terms of fluorine based new energy materials, based on the company’s semi aqueous wet process phosphoric acid production technology, the company can simultaneously produce anhydrous hydrogen fluoride and other fluorine based products, laying a raw material foundation for the expansion of fluorine based new energy products. In addition, the company also has the production capacity of fluorine-containing new energy materials such as lithium hexafluorophosphate. In terms of lithium resources, the company announced on January 21, 2022 that the company and Jinyuan Ep Co.Ltd(000546) signed the strategic cooperation agreement. The two sides will jointly promote the deep processing of new energy lithium battery materials, jointly look for and develop lithium extraction projects in Salt Lake, and realize the complementary advantages of upstream and downstream of new energy industry. The company has a large-scale and complete industrial chain layout in terms of phosphorus, fluorine and lithium energy element resources and products, which has accumulated great potential for the company’s future development in the field of new energy.
Profit forecast, valuation and rating: benefiting from the high prosperity of phosphorus chemical industry, the company achieved rapid growth in 2021, and the performance basically met the expectations. In 2022, the company’s pre fixed increase and convertible bond projects will be put into operation successively, and 200000 tons of iron phosphate capacity will be added in 2022. Considering the continuous high prosperity of phosphorus chemical industry and the company’s large-scale investment in new energy materials, we raised the company’s profit forecast for 20222023 and added the company’s profit forecast for 2024. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 will be 8.25 (up 47.8%), 14.71 (up 56.3%) and 2.200 billion yuan respectively. The current share price corresponds to about 14 times of PE in 2022. We are firmly optimistic about the company’s continuous transformation to the new energy field based on its strong resource advantages, and maintain the company’s “buy” rating.
Risk tips: production capacity construction risk, lower than expected downstream demand, product price fluctuation risk, fixed increase project landing risk, environmental protection and safety production risk.
