\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 129 Tianjin Zhonghuan Semiconductor Co.Ltd(002129) )
Key investment points
22q1 is expected to realize a net profit attributable to the parent company of RMB 1.260-1.360 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 132.71-151.18%.
In 2022q1, the company is expected to realize an operating revenue of RMB 12.800-13.8 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 71.52% - 84.92%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.260-1.360 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 132.71% - 151.18%. The main reasons for the performance exceeding expectations are (1) strong downstream demand for photovoltaic, tight supply of silicon wafer, high profitability and strong competitiveness of the company's 210 products. (2) Industry 4.0 and flexible manufacturing intelligent factory promote the company to reduce costs and increase efficiency.
210 silicon wafer production capacity accelerated release, and industrial 4.0 application promoted cost reduction and efficiency increase.
The company's 210 silicon wafer production capacity is rapid and large-scale, the production capacity of Ningxia phase VI is gradually released, and the product structure is optimized and upgraded. It is estimated that by the end of 2022, the total capacity will reach 140gw, of which 210 capacity will exceed 110gw. The company's technological innovation level and unit production rate of silicon products have been greatly improved; Through the improvement of thin line and flake technology, the silicon wafer yield and product a rate have been greatly improved, and the number of wafers per kilogram is significantly ahead of the industry. With the application of industrial 4.0 and flexible manufacturing intelligent factory production mode in the company's operation processes and operation scenarios in various industrial sectors, the company's per capita labor productivity has been greatly improved, the product quality and consistency have been continuously improved, the consumption of raw materials and auxiliary materials has been effectively improved, and the factory operation cost has continued to decline.
Supply chain management has been improved day by day, and the increase of major shareholders' holdings shows their determination for long-term development.
Tcl Technology Group Corporation(000100) (Tianjin), the largest shareholder of the company, increased 35 million shares of the company's shares through centralized bidding from January 11 to April 12, accounting for 1.08% of the company's total share capital. After this shareholding increase, Tcl Technology Group Corporation(000100) holds 29.05% of the company's equity in total, demonstrating firm confidence in the company's sustainable growth in the future. On April 7, the company and Tcl Technology Group Corporation(000100) signed the strategic cooperation framework agreement and cooperation agreement with the people's Government of Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region and the people's Government of Haote city respectively to reach cooperation on the investment and construction of Inner Mongolia central industrial city project group, and further build Inner Mongolia Central Industrial City on the basis of the company's original industrial base. The company will give full play to the synergy advantages of the dual industrial chains of semiconductor and photovoltaic, and carry out industrial chain investment cooperation in high-purity polysilicon projects, which is conducive to the coordinated cost reduction and shared development of the industrial chain strategy, strengthen the stability of the supply chain and consolidate the company's industrial competitiveness.
Profit forecast and valuation
Raise the profit forecast and maintain the "buy" rating. The profitability of the photovoltaic silicon segment exceeded expectations, and the cost side of the company continued to improve. We raised the company's profit forecast from 2021 to 2023, and expected the net profit attributable to the parent company to be 4.02 billion yuan, 6.50 billion yuan and 8.5 billion yuan respectively (3.85 billion yuan, 6.0 billion yuan and 8.0 billion yuan respectively before the increase), with a year-on-year growth rate of 269%, 62% and 31% respectively, corresponding to EPS of 1.24, 2.01 and 2.63 yuan / share, and corresponding PE of 35, 21 and 16 times respectively.
Risk tip: the photovoltaic demand is less than expected; The production expansion progress of the project is less than expected.
