\u3000\u3 Shengda Resources Co.Ltd(000603) 214 Shanghai Aiyingshi Co.Ltd(603214) )
Event: Shanghai Aiyingshi Co.Ltd(603214) released the annual report of 2021, and the company realized an operating revenue of 2.652 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 17.55%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 73 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of - 36.97%.
Channel expansion and new brand acquisition drive sales growth, but the profit side is under pressure. In Q4 of the 21st year, the company completed the acquisition of 100% equity of Beibei bear, and the number of offline stores increased rapidly from nearly 300 in 20 years to more than 500, resulting in the company's Q4 revenue of + 54.49% year-on-year, which has become an important factor driving the growth of annual revenue. At the same time, the company gave full play to the advantages of many offline stores, wide coverage and brand, quickly arranged o2o business, settled in meituan, hungry and other platforms, and more efficiently met the diversified needs of consumers. Since the launch of o2o business in March 21, the company has achieved a compound monthly growth rate of 400%, effectively making up for the impact of the epidemic on the operation of offline stores. However, affected by the epidemic and the increase in the proportion of online businesses with low gross profit margin, the gross profit margin of the company in 21 years was -1.27pct To 30.26%, and affected by the increase in relevant expenses caused by online business development and the acquisition of Beibei bear, the sales and management expense rates in 21 years were + 2.5pct year-on-year respectively And + 0.05pct, As a result, the net profit attributable to the parent company was - 36.97% year-on-year, and the profitability decreased.
The growth potential under territory expansion and business expansion is expected to be gradually released. The company's original stores are mainly in Shanghai, Jiangsu and other places. Beibeixiong is the first mother and baby chain brand in Central China. Its acquisition has helped the company quickly complete the first layout in Hunan, Hubei and other places, quickly cut into the central China market and improve the market share. At the same time, the company gradually integrates and optimizes the existing stores to realize the synergy of market, technology and supply chain in core regions such as South China, East China and central China. After the integration is completed, it is expected to achieve the effect of "1 + 1 2". The growth potential brought by brand acquisition may be gradually released, and it is expected to reduce costs and increase efficiency.
Expand early education and nursery business and strengthen brand attraction. The company has opened early education business in some stores and the first nursery center in Shanghai. The expansion of new fields will bring new performance growth points, and the expansion of service scope and improvement of service level are expected to further enhance the brand attraction.
The operational capacity of members has been continuously enhanced, and there is great room for recovery under the improvement of the epidemic situation. The company expands the rights and interests of paying members, is committed to improving member repurchase rate and brand loyalty, and deeply excavates the value of individual customers. At present, the company has established more than 1000 enterprise and micro communities with more than 50 people, with more than 1.2 million community fans. The member operation ability continues to enhance, providing reliable support for revenue growth against the background of the overall slowdown in the growth of mother and child retail industry. Considering that the negative impact of the epidemic on the operation of offline stores has not been eliminated, the company's performance still has great room for recovery under the background of the improvement of the epidemic.
Profit forecast: the company has formed competitive advantages in brand recognition, channel construction and member operation. Beibei bear's acquisition, diversified business expansion and epidemic mitigation will further drive performance growth. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company in 22-24 years will be RMB 0.9, 112 and 130 million, and EPS will be RMB 0.62, 0.79 and 0.92. Corresponding to 22-24 years, PE is 29, 23 and 20 times, maintaining the "recommended" rating.
Risk tip: the effect of acquisition and integration is less than expected, and the store expansion and online business development are less than expected
