\u3000\u3 Shengda Resources Co.Ltd(000603) 128 Cts International Logistics Corporation Limited(603128) )
Key investment points
In 2021 and 22q1, profits maintained high growth, and multidimensional core competitiveness was highlighted
Benefiting from the continuous promotion of strategies such as scale expansion, service extension and customer optimization, the company realized a net profit attributable to the parent company of 837 million yuan in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 57.7%, and the ROE (average) reached 17.2%, with a year-on-year increase of 5.0 PTS; Among them, 21q4 realized a net profit attributable to the parent company of 167 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 31.7%. 22q1 further realized a net profit attributable to the parent company of RMB 252 million, with a year-on-year increase of 36.0%, mainly due to the higher than expected growth of air and sea transportation business and the continuous development of cross-border e-commerce logistics business. In addition, in terms of cash flow, the company strengthened the recovery of accounts receivable in the first quarter. The net operating cash flow of 22q1 was 230 million yuan, an increase of 272 million yuan year-on-year.
International air and sea freight forwarders grew steadily, and cross-border e-commerce logistics maintained a high growth
1) in terms of international air transport business, the operating revenue in 2021 was 6.847 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 20.2%; The transportation volume was 354400 tons, with a year-on-year increase of 2.6%; The gross profit margin was 12.8%, with a year-on-year increase of 2.5pts; The gross profit per ton was 2467 yuan, a year-on-year increase of 45.6%. The significant increase in gross profit of air transportation is mainly due to the continuous superposition of high air transportation prices and the continuous improvement of the company's service capacity and the continuous promotion of direct passenger strategy.
2) in terms of international shipping business, the revenue in 2021 was 11.73 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 142.7%; The transportation volume was 1035400 TEUs, a year-on-year increase of 1.9%; The gross profit margin was 6.3%, a slight decrease of 0.5pts year-on-year; The gross profit per box was 710 yuan, a year-on-year increase of 119.9%. In the boom of high sea freight rates, the company adheres to customer demand as the center, constantly optimizes the structure of sea freight products, and increases diversified value-added services to improve the product premium.
3) in terms of cross-border e-commerce logistics, the company has continuously increased investment in cross-border e-commerce logistics business in recent two years, and acquired Jiacheng international in July 2021 to further improve the cross-border e-commerce logistics territory. In 2021, the cross-border e-commerce logistics business realized an operating revenue of 3.775 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 98.9%; 61800 tons of international air transport were completed, with a year-on-year increase of 16.4%, 33500 TEUs of international sea railway, with a year-on-year increase of 245.8%. In addition, 9255 tons of China EU Kaban were completed. In 2021, the company's cross-border e-commerce logistics revenue and gross profit accounted for 15.3% and 19.9% respectively, which has become another important business pillar of the company.
Gradually open the road of strategic cooperation, control resources and make up for weaknesses
In February 2022, China logistics group completed equity integration, holding Cts International Logistics Corporation Limited(603128) 45.8% equity, and simultaneously introduced China Eastern Airlines Group, COSCO Group and China Merchants Group as war investment. After resource integration and empowerment, the company's multi-party strategic cooperation accelerated:
1) it is proposed to further promote the construction of express delivery network and sharing of resources with Da'an after the signing of the previous strategic cooperation framework for express delivery and distribution services.
2) reach a strategic cooperation agreement with Eastern Air Logistics Co.Ltd(601156) to provide customers with full link logistics service solutions in combination with its capacity resources such as full cargo aircraft and passenger aircraft belly cabin.
3) it is proposed to establish Guangzhou Jiacheng International Logistics Co.Ltd(603535) airlines in a joint venture with Guangzhou Jiacheng International Logistics Co.Ltd(603535) and zhidu to build an international aviation hub in Guangzhou, which is expected to realize the triple strategic card position of region, license and link, and further build a business moat. The cooperation since this year is expected to greatly enhance Cts International Logistics Corporation Limited(603128) its core competence in the field of cross-border logistics through "controlling resources and making up for weaknesses".
The policy continues to catalyze, and it is suggested to pay attention to the strategic value of cross-border logistics core assets
1) in terms of international freight forwarding business, transport topics released the list of top 50 global maritime and air freight forwarders in 2022. The company's international air freight business ranked 15th and international maritime business ranked 11th in the world. The company has outstanding three-dimensional advantages in volume, scale, resource integration and customer structure, and has built a core scarcity barrier.
2) in terms of cross-border e-commerce logistics business, the trillion track has a broad space, superimposed with the company's positive extension expansion rhythm and excellent post merger management, so that it can deeply cut into the emerging track to obtain service quality and relatively high premium dividends in the performance chain.
It is suggested to pay attention to the strategic value of cross-border logistics core assets in the process of China's manufacturing going to sea. On April 10, the opinions of the CPC Central Committee and the State Council on accelerating the construction of a national unified market was officially released, requiring the vigorous development of multimodal transport and third-party logistics, and the cultivation of a number of globally influential digital platform enterprises and supply chain enterprises. As one of the leading central enterprises in cross-border logistics, the company focuses on increasing the proportion of direct customers in the manufacturing industry at the client and deepening the value-added of air and sea cross-border supply chain services at the model end, which is expected to benefit deeply in the medium and long term.
Profit forecast and valuation
We estimate that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 will be 1.114 billion yuan, 1.439 billion yuan and 1.802 billion yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 33.2%, 29.2% and 25.2% respectively, corresponding to 13.3 times, 10.3 times and 8.2 times of PE respectively. The company's air and sea freight forwarders are basically stable, and cross-border e-commerce logistics has built an important second growth pole, maintaining the "overweight" rating.
Risk warning: international logistics freight rate fluctuates sharply; Cross border e-commerce consumer demand fell; The actual implementation of strategic cooperation progress was less than expected.
