\u3000\u30 Xuchang Ketop Testing Research Institute Co.Ltd(003008) 20 Sichuan Injet Electric Co.Ltd(300820) )
Key investment points
PV power supply equipment faucet; Platform layout of photovoltaic / semiconductor power supply and charging pile, opening up growth space
1) the company is the leader of photovoltaic silicon material and silicon wafer power supply (accounting for 60% of revenue), with a market share of 70-80%. The company’s platform layout extends to photovoltaic cell power supply, semiconductor power supply, charging pile and other fields, opening up growth space.
2) in the past three years, the revenue CAGR = 20%, the net profit attributable to the parent CAGR = 12%, and the geometric roe is 21%. Benefiting from the expansion of photovoltaic silicon materials and silicon wafers since 2021, the company has full orders and is expected to have a high growth in 2022.
Photovoltaic power supply: the industry is booming; The company is a silicon material and silicon chip power tap, and the battery power supply opens a new space for growth
1) photovoltaic industry: ten times the demand in the next ten years. We estimate that the global new installed capacity is expected to reach 12461491gw and CAGR will reach 25% – 27% in 2030. There will be a huge demand for photovoltaic machines in the next ten years.
2) silicon material power supply: due to the shortage of silicon material + high profit + new technology of granular silicon, the industry has expanded production one after another. It is estimated that from 2022 to 2023, the total market space of silicon power supply will reach 2.4 billion yuan, and the market share of the company will be 70%. It is bound to core silicon plants other than Daquan.
3) silicon wafer power supply: benefiting from the growth of photovoltaic demand + large-scale technology iteration, it is estimated that the total market space of silicon wafer power supply will reach 1.2 billion yuan from 2022 to 2023. The market share of the company is as high as 75-80%, which is bound to the downstream core long crystal furnace equipment factory + silicon wafer factory.
4) battery power supply: welcome the expansion of hjt and TOPCON new technologies. It is estimated that the market space will reach 1 billion yuan and CAGR = 73% in 2025. The company has laid out the power supply of PECVD, PVD, diffusion and other links, with a potential market value of 3.9 billion yuan (60% market share assumption).
Semiconductor power supply: localization is the right time to replace; The company is a pioneer in China’s semiconductor power supply industry
1) with the acceleration of import substitution of China semiconductor equipment company, the domestic substitution of core parts will become the next link that domestic equipment manufacturers must consider. Among them, power supply is the core of temperature field control of semiconductor equipment. We calculate that the total market space of domestic power supply for etching machine + MOCVD equipment is expected to reach 1.4 billion yuan in 2025, CAGR = 112%.
2) the company has become a stable supplier of medium and micro semiconductor MOCVD equipment power supply, realized import substitution, and is expected to extend to the power supply of etching machine and other equipment. It is expected to grow together with China Semiconductor Equipment Factory (Zhongwei semiconductor, Naura Technology Group Co.Ltd(002371) , Zhejiang Jingsheng Mechanical & Electrical Co.Ltd(300316) etc.) in the future. In 2025, the potential market value of the company will reach 5.2 billion yuan (50% market share assumption, domestic alternative first).
Charging pile: Global 100 billion market; It is expected to open the third pole of the company’s growth
The development of new energy vehicles has stimulated the demand for charging piles. It is estimated that the total market space of charging piles in China will reach 92.5 billion yuan in 2025, which is several times that of photovoltaic and semiconductor power supply markets. From 2021 to 2025, cagr=58%. The company cut into the charging pile industry with its own industrial power technology advantages, and the market development was smooth. In 2025, the potential market value will reach 3.5 billion yuan (1.5% market share).
Investment suggestion: it is estimated that the potential market value of photovoltaic / semiconductor power supply and charging pile equipment will reach 14.8 billion yuan in 2025
It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2021 to 2023 will be RMB 155 / 260 / 380 million, with a year-on-year increase of 48% / 68% / 45% and an annual compound growth rate of 53%, corresponding to PE 42 / 25 / 17 times. The company is marching into platform enterprises. It is estimated that the total potential market value of photovoltaic / semiconductor power supply and charging pile equipment will reach 14.8 billion yuan in 2025. For the first time, give a “buy” rating.
Risk tips: raw material price fluctuation risk, downstream expansion less than expected, product R & D promotion less than expected.
