\u3000\u30 Chongqing Baiya Sanitary Products Co.Ltd(003006) 81 Zhuhai Enpower Electric Co.Ltd(300681) )
Deeply ploughing the power system of new energy vehicles, the company's products have achieved double increases in volume and price. The company has been deeply engaged in the power system of new energy vehicles for 17 years. The product is the electric drive assembly of new energy vehicles. The new generation of integrated core power assembly adopts the technical path of IGBT single tube parallel connection, which realizes the high efficiency, lightweight and low cost of the power assembly. The main barrier lies in the current consistency control of IGBT single tube. According to the company's announcement, the company's core customers are Geely, Weima, GM Wuling, Chery, etc. the company will continue to expand around China's head independent and new power car enterprises to realize the high-end of product structure. The price range of the company's new energy products is between 2000 and 10000 yuan according to the level of supporting models. With the large volume of the company's assembly products and the high-end of product structure, the value of single vehicle is expected to continue to increase.
The reform of motor and electronic control industries is accelerated, and high-end and domestic substitution are expected to accelerate. Benefiting from the high prospect of the new energy vehicle industry, the cycle of medium and high-end new products of Chinese auto enterprises with more than 200000 yuan has been gradually opened, driving the supply chain of new energy vehicles to accelerate large-scale and high-end. According to the forecast data in our annual strategy report, the sales volume of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) vehicles is expected to reach about 12.62 million in 2025. By splitting different levels of models and the value of corresponding new energy vehicle drive assemblies, we calculate that the market scale of new energy vehicle power assemblies in China will exceed 100 billion in 2025.
The third party of China's electric drive system is expected to obtain a higher share: 1) domestic substitution of electronic components, the technology of Chinese suppliers is close to foreign suppliers, and the advantages of cost control, response speed and service are obvious; 2) Leading technology, widening the product gap, gradually standardizing the electric drive system and increasing the share of the three parties; 3) The development cost and scale effect make the cost advantage of the third-party suppliers obvious, and the pressure of the main engine plant to reduce the cost drives the share of suppliers to increase.
Product iteration was accelerated and capacity expansion was gradually implemented. The company's products continue to upgrade: 1) the integrated core power assembly adopts the IGBT single tube parallel scheme to realize the same shell design of motor electric control. Compared with the mainstream motor and power assembly, the success rate density is increased by about 20% - 30%, and the cost is reduced by about 20%. It has obvious advantages. At present, 160kW products have been mass produced, and higher power products are expected to be mass produced in the next 1-2 years to gradually match medium and high-end models. 2) The advantages of the new generation of "six in one" products in cost and power density are further amplified. At present, there are fixed models, which are expected to improve the penetration of A0 and A-class customers and gradually enter medium and high-end customers. 3) According to the announcement, the research and development of the fourth generation SiC version "integrated core" powertrain is successful. At present, the platform construction is being promoted. The company has technical reserves for the fourth generation silicon carbide and power circuit integration, high-speed motor and new toothless transmission technology.
The company's production base is divided into Zhuhai headquarters and Heze base. Zhuhai headquarters is expected to add 100000 sets of assembly capacity and form Shanghai Pudong Development Bank Co.Ltd(600000) sets of assembly capacity; Heze base is expected to increase the production capacity of 300000 sets of motor controllers, 300000 sets of motors and 200000 sets of power assemblies. After all the new production capacity reaches the production capacity, the company will form a production capacity of more than 1 million sets.
Investment suggestion: we predict that from 2021 to 2023, the company will realize an operating revenue of RMB 968 / 2566 / 4824 million and a net profit of RMB 48 / 166 / 368 million. The current share price corresponds to 111.7 / 32.3 / 14.6 times of PE. For the first time, it is rated "Buy-A", with a six-month target price of 97.5 yuan / share.
Risk warning: the impact of the lack of core in the automotive industry, the risk that the sales volume of new energy vehicles is lower than expected, and the risk of raw material price fluctuation
