\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 327 Wuxi Commercial Mansion Grand Orient Co.Ltd(600327) )
Retail stock business: the impact of the epidemic is under pressure in the short term and good in the long term; Reform and innovation, enabling development
Retail department stores: the light luxury market has a strong performance, promoting the adjustment and upgrading. The combination of consumption upgrading and consumption rejuvenation boosted the strong performance of the light luxury market. According to McKinsey's prediction, the CAGR of China's light luxury market will reach 11% ~ 13% from 2017 to 2022. Under the influence of the epidemic, China has benefited from the return of demand in recent two years, and the growth rate from 2020 to 2022 is expected to exceed expectations. In order to meet the changes in the structure of consumer groups and consumer demand, the company actively adjusted its positioning, continued to adjust and upgrade around "light luxury", focused on cosmetics, watch jewelry, sports and leisure and other categories in the rising channel, and introduced brands focusing on youth, differentiation and fashion.
Food & Catering: transformation and innovation to improve profitability. Food sector: while promoting the expansion of Direct stores, Sanfeng bridge has built a franchise system and accelerated the construction of chain brands; It also launched "cooked food store development manual", "cooked food store operation manual" and "cooked food store franchise manual" to improve the operation ability of the store (store performance + 14% in 2020). Catering sector: the transformation and upgrading of sanfengqiao lobby room to meet the diversified needs of young consumers, launch special new products, and increase the customer unit price by 30%; Sanfengqiao set up an intangible cultural heritage window to develop new products. In 2020, the gross profit margin of the intangible cultural heritage window increased by 15pct compared with ordinary stores.
Impact of the epidemic: the epidemic has repeatedly affected short-term operations, but it has not changed the long-term trend of light luxury retail and Food & catering. With the weakening of the impact of the epidemic, the performance is expected to release flexibility.
Incremental retail business: the epidemic situation catalyzes the development of community economy and expands the business of fresh food distribution and convenience stores
Baiye Supermarket: the scale of China's fresh food retail market is growing steadily. According to AI media consulting data, the market scale is expected to reach 6.8 trillion yuan in 2025 (6.2% CAGR in 20202025). With the increase of young consumers' demand for service experience and convenience and the development of Internet technology, retail enterprises layout online channels and develop distribution business. In 2020, the epidemic broke out, offline retail was affected, and the consumption scene accelerated to shift to online (according to iResearch consulting data, the online consumer population of fresh fruits increased by 27.6% year-on-year in 2020). With its advanced and efficient supply chain system, Baiye supermarket provides fresh food distribution services for consumers in surrounding communities, and takes this opportunity to carry out the distribution business of group meal ingredients in campus canteen, realizing a sales revenue of 100 million yuan in 2020.
7-Eleven: the outbreak of the epidemic has accelerated the development of "near-field" consumption. Consumers more choose home business and community group purchase to solve the rigid consumption demand of daily high frequency, which has promoted the development of community convenience stores. In 2020, the number of chain convenience stores reached 144000 (+ 9.1%), and the proportion of community convenience stores increased to 52.7% (+ 22.3pct). The company has obtained the operation right of 7-ELEVEN in Hubei. 7-Eleven has intensively opened stores in the franchise mode, continuously improved its profitability through efficient supply chain management, rich products and considerate and convenient services, and has sustained and rapid development in the world. The company is expected to continuously optimize the franchise model and achieve rapid development in Hubei with the empowerment of 7-ELEVEN group.
Medical business: cut into the track of children's medical services and orthopedics, and cultivate new performance growth points
Jiangao medical: it is the largest pediatric chain organization in China, focusing on growth and development. It is gradually developing into a "full development" clinic, forming a pediatric chain medical organization with diversified specialty characteristics. By the end of 2021, Jiangao Pediatrics has opened 16 medical institutions in 12 cities such as Beijing, Shanghai, Hangzhou, Wuhan and Chengdu. It is expected to expand the chain scale and realize the national chain layout in the future.
Yaen health: it is a chain organization that mainly provides personalized rehabilitation training for children with behavioral and psychological disorders. By the end of 2021, 15 service centers have been set up in 7 major cities such as Beijing, Shanghai, Hangzhou and Nanjing. According to the brain health data of Peking University Medical, the rehabilitation market scale of 2-8-year-old autistic patients is about 60 billion yuan / year, and the rehabilitation market scale of speech and language disorders is about 120 billion yuan / year. At present, the competition pattern of children's rehabilitation industry is relatively scattered. At the same time, children's rehabilitation industry is faced with problems such as low quality education resources and rehabilitation resources, lack of family intervention knowledge and so on. Yaen health is expected to break through with senior therapists and expert consultants, as well as a comprehensive and advanced curriculum system.
Shuyang Central Hospital: it is a class II class a general hospital with balanced discipline layout and significant advantages in orthopedics and cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases, and its comprehensive strength is the third in the county. Shuyang County will realize gdp1162 in 2021 With a total economic output of 100 million yuan, Subei County (city) ranks first for two consecutive years, and its economic growth (+ 8.6%) leads Suqian City. In late 2020, the total population of Shuyang registered residence was 1 million 988 thousand and 400, and the volume of medical demand was larger. Shuyang central hospital is expected to achieve long-term and steady development in the region.
Investment advice
The company is deeply engaged in the retail sector. While continuously optimizing and adjusting the existing retail department stores, food and catering stock business, the company grasps the outlet of the community economy industry and arranges the fresh distribution and convenience store industry; On this basis, further expand the field of medical and health care. In the short term, with the improvement of the epidemic situation, retail department stores, food and catering sectors are expected to release performance flexibility; In the long run, the light luxury industry has a broad market space, the company continues to adjust and upgrade to improve the floor efficiency, and the retail department store business is expected to achieve steady growth; Under the catalysis of the epidemic, the fresh distribution and convenience store industry has ushered in new development opportunities. The company has opened fresh enhanced stores, obtained the management right of 7-ELEVEN Hubei, explored the chain expansion of franchise mode, and is expected to further strengthen the main retail business; The company acquired Jiangao medical treatment, Shuyang Central Hospital and yaen health, cut into the field of medical and health, and multi track linkage empowerment, which is expected to become a new performance growth point. We expect that the company's EPS from 2021 to 2023 will be 0.73, 0.26 and 0.30 yuan / share respectively, corresponding to 8, 23 and 20 times of the current share price PE respectively. For the first time, give a "buy" rating.
Risk tips
Repeated outbreaks in some areas; The fresh food distribution industry is highly competitive; 7-Eleven store was not as expected; The cultivation of the medical sector was less than expected.
