\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 078 Shandong Sun Paper Co.Ltd(002078) )
Event:
The company released the annual report of 2021: the annual revenue of 2021 was 31.997 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 48.21%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 2.957 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 51.39%; The net profit deducted from non parent company was 2.932 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 52.44%; The basic earnings per share is 1.12 yuan.
Guoyuan view:
The performance was in line with expectations, and the high cost + weak terminal demand put pressure on the profit in the second half of the year
In 2021, the company produced 5.36 million tons of paper (+ 39.22%), sold 5.23 million tons (+ 37.63%), achieved a revenue of 31.997 billion yuan (+ 48.21%) and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 2.957 billion yuan (+ 51.39%). Quarter by quarter, q1-4 company achieved revenue of RMB 76.43/81.70/79.02/8.282 billion respectively, a year-on-year increase of + 37.66% / + 67.55% / + 51.65% / + 39.19%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.108/11.24/5.37/189 billion yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 106.71% / + 180.56% / + 20.43% / - 66.98%. In the second half of the year, especially in the fourth quarter, the profit growth was under pressure. On the one hand, the cost pressure brought by the high price slurry in the early stage gradually appeared. In addition, the cost of energy and power coal rose sharply, making the cost end operate at a high level; On the other hand, the implementation of the double reduction policy superimposes the off-season of cultural paper, and the downstream demand side is weak. In terms of products, the revenue of uncoated cultural paper / kraft liner paper / coated base paper / household paper in 21 years was 86.71/98.70/16.10/857 million yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 20.29% / 136.59% / 94.98% / 9.01%. Among them, the new production capacity of kraft linerboard is released, the superimposed demand is strong, and the revenue growth is fast under the marginal upward and downward prices of related products. In terms of pulping business, chemical mechanical pulp / dissolved pulp achieved revenue of RMB 1.827/3.255 billion respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 2.25% / 49.46%.
Profitability was basically stable, and the marginal level of expense rate improved
Although affected by cost pressure and other factors, the company's profitability was under pressure in 2021, but it was basically stable. The company's comprehensive gross profit margin decreased by 2.07pcts to 17.37% year-on-year, and the net profit margin increased by 0.12pcts to 9.24% year-on-year. By quarter, the gross profit margin of q1-4 was 23.44% / 22.14% / 14.42% / 9.90% respectively, with a year-on-year increase of -1.15pcts / - 0.58pcts / - 8.14pcts / + 0.70pcts. In terms of products, the gross profit margins of uncoated cultural paper / kraft liner paper / coated base paper / household paper were 15.96% / 15.43% / 22.31% / 4.13% respectively, with a year-on-year increase of -6.54pcts / - 0.93pcts / - 4.43pcts / - 18.62pcts; The gross profit margin of chemical mechanical pulp / dissolved pulp was 21.16% / 22.97% respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 0.72 PCTs / + 26.50 PCTs. In terms of expense rate during the period, the sales expense rate / management expense rate / financial expense rate decreased by 0.05pcts/0.49pcts/0.70pcts to 0.43% / 2.54% / 1.77% year-on-year.
The advantages of Forest Pulp paper integration have been gradually highlighted, and the performance growth is supported by capacity expansion + optimization of supply and demand structure
The company has built a "Forest Pulp paper integration" system under the three bases of Shandong, Guangxi and Laos, of which 550000 T / a cultural paper, 120000 T / a household paper, 800000 T / a chemical pulp and 200000 t / a chemical mechanical pulp projects in Guangxi have been put into operation. We believe that with the subsequent marginal improvement of energy costs, the stable price and inventory of superimposed paper are further digested, and the ton profit is expected to pick up month on month; At the same time, spring is the peak season of teaching auxiliary publishing, book printing will meet the peak, and the recovery of demand side may bring upward profitability. In the medium and long term, as the company's projects are put into operation and the production capacity is gradually released, the cost scale advantage of Shandong Sun Paper Co.Ltd(002078) will gradually become prominent.
Investment advice and profit forecast
The company is a leader in the integration of forestry, pulp and paper. The pace of capacity expansion is clear, the cost advantage of scale effect is prominent, and the medium and long-term market share is expected to increase steadily. We adjusted the profit forecast. It is expected that the company will achieve revenue of 34.418/36.322/38.246 billion yuan, net profit attributable to the parent company of 3.089/33.08/3.637 billion yuan, EPS of 1.15/1.23/1.35 yuan and PE of 10.43/9.74/8.86 times respectively from 2022 to 2024, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk tips
The price of raw materials fluctuates greatly; Demand growth is less than expected; The production capacity was lower than expected.
