\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 966 Shandong Bohui Paper Industry Co.Ltd(600966) )
Event:
The company released the annual report of 2021: the annual revenue of 2021 was 16.276 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.41%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.706 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 104.50%; The net profit attributable to the parent company after non deduction was 1.713 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 108.37%; The basic earnings per share is 1.29 yuan.
Guoyuan view:
In 2021, paper prices rose before and fell after, and Q4 price cost scissors gap squeezed profits
In 2021h1, the prosperity of the paper products market has improved, the production and sales have flourished, the H2 epidemic has been superimposed repeatedly, the driving force of consumer demand has weakened, the inventory pressure of the industry has increased, and it is facing the triple pressure of demand contraction, supply shock and weakening expectation. In terms of volume, the output and sales volume of white paperboard of the company in the whole year of 21 were 2257500 tons and 2252200 tons respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 2.48% / – 0.77%; In terms of price, the product price of Q3 company gradually stabilized after falling, but the rising energy price of Q4 brought upward costs and squeezed profits. In a single quarter, Q4 company achieved an operating revenue of 4.34 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of – 6.76% and a month on month increase of + 10.38%; The operating cost was 4.188 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 5.43% and a month on month increase of + 36.21%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was a loss of 211 million yuan, a decrease of 614 million yuan month on month. In addition, at the end of 2021, the construction in progress of the company increased significantly compared with the end of the previous period, with a year-on-year increase of + 133.66%, mainly due to the arrival of high-grade information paper project equipment. If the subsequent import prices of raw pulp and wood chips fall, and the high-end products are further expanded, the profitability of the company is expected to be repaired quickly.
Gross profit margin fluctuates with price and cost, and R & D efforts continue to increase
In terms of gross profit margin, the company’s gross profit margin in 2021 was 22.93%, a year-on-year increase of + 5.87pct; Q1-Q4 gross profit margin is 33.42% / 34.63% / 21.81% / 3.50% respectively. The change of gross profit is mainly due to the sharp fluctuation of white cardboard price and the rise of energy cost and sea freight price during the year. In terms of expense rate, the company’s R & D expense rate in 2021 was 3.42%, with a year-on-year increase of + 1.42pct, mainly due to the company’s increased technology R & D, the development of new products for subdivided needs, and the high-end demand brought by the superposition of “plastic restriction order”. In terms of financial expenses, the gross profit rate was + 514.48% year-on-year, and the net profit rate was + 514.48% year-on-year.
Enhance the concentration, strengthen the leading bargaining power, and the medium and long-term profit center is expected to rise
With the release of 1 million tons of white cardboard production capacity of Jiangsu Bohui in the next two years and the promotion of 450000 tons of high-grade information paper project in Shandong, the company’s revenue scale and market share will increase steadily; After the completion of the acquisition, the total market share of white cardboard capacity of the company and Jinguang paper industry is about 55%, and the industry Cr4 is increased to 83%. The leading bargaining power with the advantage of upstream and downstream integration will be further enhanced. With the gradual tightening of industrial policies such as production capacity, environmental protection and energy, the investment and financing threshold of the paper industry is further raised, and the elimination of backward production capacity is accelerated. The new “plastic restriction order” drives the demand for white cardboard. In the long run, the price center and ton profit level of white cardboard are expected to rise. In addition, the company launched a share repurchase scheme of no less than 1 billion yuan in March 2021 to implement the employee stock ownership plan or equity incentive, which will further enhance the enthusiasm of employees and facilitate the long-term development of the company. By the end of March 2022, the company had repurchased 53.67 million shares, accounting for 4.01% of the total share capital of the company.
Investment advice and profit forecast
The new version of “plastic restriction order” drives the demand for white card paper. As the leader of white card, the Growth Logic of capacity expansion of the company is clear. Jinguang’s empowerment in production management and resources will further improve the operation efficiency of the company. Considering that the energy price may remain high and the impact of “dual control of energy consumption” on the production side, we adjust the profit forecast. It is estimated that the company’s revenue from 2022 to 2024 will be 19.550/20.682/21.789 billion yuan, the net profit attributable to the parent company will be 2.243/24.85/2.695 billion yuan, the EPS will be 1.68/1.86/2.02 yuan / share, and the corresponding PE will be 5.20/4.69/4.33 times, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk tips
Price fluctuation of raw materials; Demand growth is less than expected; Industry competition intensifies.
