\u3000\u30 Beijing Zznode Technologies Co.Ltd(003007) 51 Suzhou Maxwell Technologies Co.Ltd(300751) )
It has obtained an overseas order for the whole line of 4.8gw heterojunction equipment, with an estimated amount of about 1.9 billion; The technical strength has been recognized by overseas leaders
1) according to the announcement of the company. The company’s wholly-owned subsidiary (Singapore Maiwei) received an order for 4.8gw heterojunction equipment from reliance industries. The total includes: 8 whole line equipment, with a capacity of 600MW / piece.
2) contract amount: more than 50% of the company’s operating revenue in 2021, but less than 100% (Note: the company’s revenue in 2021 is 3.1 billion yuan). If the current value of hjt equipment industry is 400 million yuan / GW, the corresponding amount is estimated to be about 1.9 billion yuan.
3) contracted customers: Reliance Industries is a listed company in India. In 2021, it invested US $771 million to acquire recsolarholdings (Norwegian photovoltaic cell, module and polysilicon manufacturing company, with its operation headquarters in Singapore). Rec has the world’s first hjt mass production project of more than 500MW and is the leader of overseas hjt batteries. It is planned to build 4gw and 1.8gw heterojunction battery capacity in India and Singapore respectively in 2022 and put into operation at the end of the year. It is estimated that the capacity of hjt will reach 15gw in 2023, including 10GW in India and 5GW in Singapore.
4) strategic significance: the cooperation between the company and rec originated in 2019, and rec Singapore’s 400MW heterojunction battery mass production equipment order was obtained in November 2021. This time, the company received another 4.8gw order for the whole line, which represents that Maiwei heterojunction equipment products have been recognized by international leading enterprises, which is the result of rec’s long-term investigation and verification of Maiwei.
5) there are abundant orders of hjt equipment on hand, and it is expected that 2022 will become a new growth point of performance: by September 2021, the company’s orders of hjt equipment on hand have reached 1.8 billion (according to the announcement of the company). In 2021, the company has obtained hjt equipment order revenue, and obtained hjt equipment orders such as Anhui Huasheng, Guangdong Golden Glass Technologies Limited(300093) , Jiangsu Akcome Science And Technology Co.Ltd(002610) , REC, which will provide an important growth point for the company’s performance in 2022. At the same time, the company has launched mass production microcrystalline hjt equipment, which has been sent to downstream customers for mass production.
Hjt equipment: the compound growth rate of the industry exceeds 80%; The company’s 2.8 billion hjt fixed increase issuance has been completed and looks forward to another breakthrough
1) market space of hjt equipment orders: it is estimated that the market space of hjt equipment orders is expected to exceed 40 billion yuan in 2025, and the CAGR will be 80% from 2020 to 2025. If the net interest rate remains 20% (8 billion net profit), 25 times PE will be given. It is estimated that the reasonable total market value of hjt equipment industry is 200 billion yuan! We judge that the industry’s leading market share is expected to exceed 50%, and the market value is expected to exceed 100 billion yuan in the future.
2) the company’s fixed increase of 2.8 billion yuan has been successfully completed, which is used for projects with an annual output of 40 sets of PECVD, PVD and automation equipment. Among them, Ming Yang Smart Energy Group Limited(601615) which is an important manufacturer of downstream hjt batteries was allocated with a fixed increase of 100 million yuan and an additional lock period of 12 months Ming Yang Smart Energy Group Limited(601615) previously announced a total investment of 3 billion yuan to expand 5gwhjt Battery + components in the next five years. The project is expected to be carried out in three phases.
Profit forecast: optimistic about the company’s strategic position and high growth in the future development of photovoltaic and semiconductor industries
It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 will be RMB 880 / 13 / 18 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 37% / 48% / 38%, corresponding to 64 / 43 / 31 times of PE. Maintain the “buy” rating.
Risk tip: the propulsion speed of heterojunction battery does not meet the expectation; Photovoltaic demand is less than expected; The downstream expansion was less than expected.
