\u3000\u3 Guangdong Shaoneng Group Co.Ltd(000601) 009 Bank Of Nanjing Co.Ltd(601009) )
Comparison between present and past: city commercial firms with high cost performance
(1) the city commercial bank used to be the leader, and its current cost performance is very high. ① Bank Of Nanjing Co.Ltd(601009) and Bank Of Ningbo Co.Ltd(002142) once kept pace with each other. They are the star targets of urban commercial banks, and the valuation difference has widened in recent five years. Up to the latest, the valuation of Pb in Nanjing, Ningbo, Chengdu and Hangzhou in the past 22 years has been 0.97, 1.64, 1.15 and 1.11 times respectively, Bank Of Nanjing Co.Ltd(601009) with high cost performance. ② The difference in valuation is due to the difference in business focus. With the tightening of supervision, the Bank Of Nanjing Co.Ltd(601009) valuation dominated by government business fluctuated downward Bank Of Ningbo Co.Ltd(002142) promoted the strategic transformation of large retail, with strong performance and recognized by the market.
(2) the performance inflection point has appeared, which resonates with the operation inflection point. ① Horizontal comparison: Bank Of Nanjing Co.Ltd(601009) all indicators are at the excellent level of listed city commercial banks, and roe, ROA and defect rate indicators are among the top three in the industry. Since 2021q1, the profit growth has continued to expand compared with comparable benchmark banks. ② Vertically, the inflection point of Bank Of Nanjing Co.Ltd(601009) operation and performance has appeared and resonated. Since 20q3, profit, revenue, non-performing assets and provisions have shown a positive trend.
Investment logic: market-oriented layout will exceed expectations
(1) business market-oriented transformation: the strategy focuses on retail and trading banks, and the layout and effectiveness are expected to exceed expectations. ① In terms of retail business: acquire the consumer finance license to increase new profit growth momentum; The private bank is upgraded to the first level Department of the head office, and the optimization of organizational structure is expected to catalyze the development of retail wealth business. Assuming that the ROA of Bank Of Nanjing Co.Ltd(601009) retail segment reaches the level of head bank driven by private banking and high-yield consumer banking, it is estimated that it is expected to drive the ROA of the whole bank to rise by 11bp to 1.08%. ② In terms of transaction banks: Xin partner plans to promote the upgrading of Hexin e-partner platform, improve the company's comprehensive customer service ability, and effectively support the growth of business revenue of the company.
(2) remarkable results in network expansion: network expansion and new network capacity expansion drive business growth beyond expectations. ① The expansion of outlets drives the growth of scale. According to the 2021 interim report, Bank Of Nanjing Co.Ltd(601009) plans to increase 100 outlets to 300 outlets to open the space for asset growth. There will be 15 new sub branches in 2021 and 47 in 2022. The pace of new institutions is expected to accelerate. ② The single point capacity has been significantly improved, the county coverage of outlets has been improved, the capacity of new branches has been improved, and the balance of deposits and loans has increased rapidly. Compared with the newly established sub branches of Q1 and Q1, the newly established sub branches accounted for 11.88% and 21.5% of the new deposits and loans, respectively, and the newly established sub branches of Q1 and Q1 accounted for 21.5% and 25.5% of the new deposits and loans respectively.
(3) the management mechanism has been optimized: the market-oriented reform of management and staff is expected to drive the performance to exceed expectations. ① The management is market-oriented, the reform of professional managers is implemented, the management team is excellent and market-oriented, and the business momentum is continuously released. ② Excellent incentive mechanism, leading benchmarking firms in terms of per capita salary, per capita income and per capita profit. Employees with bachelor degree or above account for 96%, ranking first among listed urban commercial banks.
Earnings interpretation: the performance of the first quarter report greatly exceeded expectations
On April 15, Bank Of Nanjing Co.Ltd(601009) disclosed the first quarterly report of listed banks. The performance greatly exceeded expectations and fired the first shot.
(1) the growth rate of revenue greatly exceeded the market expectation. 2022q1 Bank Of Nanjing Co.Ltd(601009) revenue and profit growth exceeded 20%, especially the 20% rapid growth of revenue under the background of 21q1 high interest margin base, which was not easy and exceeded the market expectation. Specifically: ① scale: 22q1 growth rate + 0.9pc to 16% month on month, with strong investment. With the promotion of strategy and network encryption, the growth momentum of subsequent assets continues to rise, supporting the rapid growth of profits; ② Interest margin: 22q1 interest margin was - 5bp month on month, and the rate of return on assets decreased faster than the debt cost rate. Attributed to the fact that Q1 investment is mainly for the public, the interest rate spread is expected to stabilize and even rise with the subsequent retail investment. Considering that the base effect subsides, the drag of interest rate spread on earnings is expected to improve; ③ Other non interest: year on year +134% in 22q1, the growth rate increased by 75pc compared with that in 21q4, indicating that Bank Of Nanjing Co.Ltd(601009) gold market has strong business capacity, and the future investment income is expected to continue to make a good contribution to profit growth. ④ Defective: the defective rate at the end of 22q1 was - 1bp to 0.90% month on month, and the attention rate was - 22bp to 1.00% month on month.
(2) performance sustainability is expected to exceed expectations. Looking forward to the future, with the strategic development of retail and trading banks and the encryption of network layout, Bank Of Nanjing Co.Ltd(601009) profit growth is expected to maintain high growth.
Profit forecast and valuation
It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 will increase by 22.31% / 20.14% / 20.13% year-on-year, corresponding to bps12.5% 33 / 14.04/16.11 yuan shares. The current price corresponds to 0.97/0.85/0.74 times of Pb valuation. Maintain the target price of 16.00 yuan / share, corresponding to 22-year pb1.00 yuan 30 times, the current price corresponds to 22 years pb0 97 times, 34% of the current price space.
Risk tip: macroeconomic stall and substantial exposure of adverse.
