\u3000\u3 Shengda Resources Co.Ltd(000603) 369 Jiangsu King'S Luck Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(603369) )
Event: Jiangsu King'S Luck Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(603369) announced that in 2021, the revenue was 6.41 billion yuan, with an increase of 25.12%, and the net profit deducted was 2.03 billion yuan, with an increase of 30.50%; Among them, Q4 revenue / deduction of non net profit was 1.07/330 billion, with an increase of 15.84% / 29.45%; Previously, it was also announced that 22q1 achieved a revenue of about 3 billion, an increase of 25% and a net profit of about 1 billion, an increase of 24%;
The annual profit index is bright, and it is expected to go further in 22 years. The annual report disclosed that the growth rate of revenue and profit benefited from the increase in the proportion of Guoyuan series and the upgrading of product structure brought by the large volume of V series. The annual gross profit margin increased by 4pct to 74.61% in 2021. The sales expense rate decreased by 2pct to 15.1% and the management expense rate decreased by 0.44pct to 4.03%; In the 21st year, the net cash flow from operating activities was 3.024 billion, an increase of 170.3% and the contract liabilities were 2.07 billion, a significant increase of 970 million compared with the end of 2020, an increase of 88.59% and a month on month increase of 140.11% compared with 2021q3, reflecting the good payment situation in the fourth quarter of the 21st year and the surplus grain left. The company has set a revenue target of 7.5 billion in 2022 and strive for 8 billion, with a corresponding increase of 17-25%; The net profit target is 2.25 billion, striving for 2.35 billion, with a corresponding increase of 11% - 16%.
The structure continues to improve, and the V series may have more room to play. In terms of products, the growth rate of TA + products with high price at the revenue end is ahead of the whole. The annual growth rate of TA + revenue is 35.71% and that of Q4 is 22%, far exceeding the overall growth rate of the company in the same period, which is the main pulling force for the improvement of gross profit margin; In 2021, the proportion of special a + will increase 5pct to 65%, and the proportion of national edge will be higher. With the gradual increase of the proportion of high-priced products, the growth will have a more obvious pulling effect on the overall product structure. Looking forward to 2022, Guoyuan used to rely mainly on the "four open" to lead the growth. Since the Spring Festival this year, other single products such as folio have also increased significantly; We expect that V series will have more room to play in the future. The company has sorted out the price of V series products. The ex factory price of V3 may be increased to undertake upgrading. V9 group purchase is the main atmosphere. At the same time, the alliance continues to improve and upgrade. At present, the enthusiasm of channel sales is sufficient.
The new year's goals are clear, and the five-year goals may be achieved at an accelerated pace. The company has set a revenue target of 7.5 billion in 2022, striving for 8 billion, an increase of 17-25% at the same time; The net profit target is 2.25 billion, striving for 2.35 billion, an increase of 11% - 16% at the same time. Since March, Jiangsu Province has been affected by the epidemic, and the pace of consumption has slowed down slightly, but the channel feedback has not been affected at present. The epidemic control has improved in recent days, which is expected to have no significant impact on the annual performance; In the past 21 years, the mature market in the province has grown steadily. The revenue of Huai'an / Nanjing region has increased by 18.03% / 19.80% year-on-year respectively, and that of areas outside the province has increased by 36.05% year-on-year, accounting for less than 7%. There is a broad space for development in the future; President Gu, the new chairman, took root in the front line of the market, made clear the advantages and disadvantages of the company's business, and made clear the determination to expand outside the province. In the medium and long term, the company plans to achieve a revenue of 10 billion yuan in 2025 and strive for 15 billion yuan. It is optimistic that the five-year goal of the 14th five year plan will be completed in three years.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions: Based on the 21st Annual Report and the first quarterly report of 22 years, we adjust the profit forecast. In terms of revenue, in 22 years, we will focus on the 13445 strategy, continuously improve the brand value and deepen the four campaigns, which is expected to achieve the upper limit of the company's revenue target; The growth rate of TA + products is strong, the product structure continues to be optimized, and the gross profit margin is expected to continue to increase. The cost rate remained basically stable. It is estimated that the total operating revenue of the company from 2022 to 2024 will be RMB 7.993/96.50/11.606 billion respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 24.72% / 20.74% / 20.27%; It is estimated that the net profit of the company from 2022 to 2024 will be RMB 2.562/31.83/3.903 billion respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 26.25% / 24.24% / 22.64%; The corresponding EPS is 2.04/2.54/3.11 yuan (the previous time was 2.03/2.46 yuan), and the corresponding PE is 21, 17 and 14 times respectively. Maintain the "buy" rating. Key recommendations.
Risk warning: the global epidemic continues to spread; Consumption upgrading is less than expected; Food safety issues
