\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 624 Perfect World Co.Ltd(002624) )
Key investment points
Event: Perfect World Co.Ltd(002624) released 2021 annual performance express and 2022 Q1 performance forecast. It is estimated that Q1 company will realize a net profit attributable to the parent company of RMB 830 million ~ 850 million in 2022, with a year-on-year increase of 79% ~ 83%; Deduction of non net profit was about 400 million yuan to 420 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 25.7% ~ 32%. In 2021, the company achieved a revenue of 8.52 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of about 16.7%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 370 million, a year-on-year decrease of 76%; The deduction of non net profit was about 100 million, a year-on-year decrease of 90.1%, mainly due to the connection between new and old games, personnel optimization, salary adjustment, investment loss and asset impairment, and the performance was under periodic pressure.
The self-developed mobile game "magic tower" performed well, and the transformation and upgrading of game business gradually landed, and the rebound is expected. The magic tower, which was publicly tested in December 2021, is the company's first self-developed two-dimensional tonal MMORPG mobile game, with good performance. In the first month, it added more than 10 million users and nearly 500 million yuan of water in the first month, boosting the performance of 22q1 to achieve significant growth. In 2021, the company's game business is in the stage of strategic upgrading and product innovation iteration. The connection between new and old games is poor, the R & D investment is increased, the investment is mismatched with the payback period, and the investment loss leads to performance pressure; 22q1, the effect of game business transformation and upgrading has gradually appeared, and the net profit is expected to be 850 million yuan to 870 million yuan, an increase of 99% - 103.6% over the same period in 2021; Adjust the layout of overseas game business, sell U.S. R & D studios and local distribution teams in Europe and the United States, and confirm that the non recurring income is about 400 million yuan. After deducting non recurring income, the net profit of game business is about 440 million yuan ~ 460 million yuan, up 33% ~ 39% year-on-year. Driven by high-quality products such as magic tower and dream new killing immortal, the growth momentum of game business has been realized.
There are enough subsequent projects with version iteration and superposition, and it is still worth looking forward to in the second half of the year. 1) The follow-up company will launch version 2.0 of magic tower Vera, which is expected to bring the return of active users and water improvement, or will continue to contribute to the performance in the second half of the year; Reserve products such as "black cat anecdote society", "Tianlong Babu 2", "Kingdom of morning and night", "one punch Superman: the world" and "million King Arthur" are being actively promoted, and their future performance is worthy of attention; 2) Driven by the two wheels of "Chinese products going to sea + overseas localization development", dream new Zhuxian was launched simultaneously in the overseas market in March 22. The mobile tour of magic tower will be tested in many overseas places recently, and it is expected to be officially launched in the overseas market within this year. Linglong, Fengshen series and other well-known IP games are also actively preparing. The game goes to sea with well-known IP blessings, which is expected to open a new growth pole for the company and promote the steady growth of future performance.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions. According to the performance express of 2021, the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2021 to 2023 is expected to be 370 million yuan, 1.86 billion yuan and 2.2 billion yuan respectively, and the corresponding PE is 66 times, 13 times and 11 times respectively. In 2021, the company's performance was under periodic pressure due to the convergence of new and old games, personnel optimization, salary adjustment, investment loss and asset impairment. Considering that the magic tower has entered the harvest period in 2022, the version iteration superposition and sufficient follow-up projects maintained the "buy" rating.
Risk warning: the risk of industry development falling short of expectations and the risk of macroeconomic fluctuations.
