\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 481 Shuangliang Eco-Energy Systems Co.Ltd(600481) )
Key investment points
Performance summary: the company released the first quarter report of 2022, and 22q1 achieved a revenue of 1.734 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 299.50%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 121 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 340.80%; The non net profit deducted was 101 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 638.43%; EPS0. 07 yuan.
The first silicon wafer single crystal factory climbed to full production, and the company's silicon wafer output will increase month on month from the second quarter. The production capacity of the first single crystal plant of 22q1 company is about 8GW, which has been steadily climbing. It has been fully put into operation. The shipment of silicon wafer is about 0.9gw. If calculated at 0.75 yuan / w (excluding tax), the silicon wafer revenue is about 680 million yuan, accounting for about 38.9% of the total revenue, which has become the largest revenue source of the company. At present, the second single crystal plant of the company is gradually put into operation. The silicon wafer output of the company may reach more than 3gw in the second quarter, and the 12gw + capacity of the second single crystal plant will gradually contribute to the increment. By the end of the year, the silicon wafer capacity of the company will exceed 20GW. We expect that the company's silicon wafer shipment is expected to reach 15gw in 2022, effectively ensuring the shipment volume to long-term single customers.
22q1 added 1.56 billion yuan of reduction furnace orders. Combined with the rhythm of order delivery, revenue to be confirmed in 21 years and the rhythm of silicon wafer production, the company's revenue and profit in 22 years are expected to maintain month on month growth. In 21 years, the company still has about 700 million yuan of reduction furnace orders, and the revenue will be recognized in 22 years; 22q1 company and Daquan of Inner Mongolia, Hoshine Silicon Industry Co.Ltd(603260) and other newly signed reduction furnace orders of 1.56 billion yuan, mostly focused on 22q3 delivery, and most of them are expected to recognize revenue within the year. Therefore, the company's reduction furnace revenue will also increase quarter by quarter. After the delivery of silicon wafers is improved and the profit is improved, the reduction furnace and energy-saving and water-saving equipment business have entered the peak delivery season, and the company's revenue and profit are expected to show a month on month growth trend in 2022.
The high increase of revenue brings scale effect, and the expense rate decreases significantly during the period. The expense rate of 22q1 company during the period was 10.22%, with a month on month decrease of 3.62pp and a year-on-year decrease of 15.37pp. Among them, the sales expense rate decreased the most, with a month on month decrease of 3.33pp to 2.45pp in 22q1. The sharp decrease in expense rate during the period of the company is mainly due to the rapid growth of revenue and the dilution of expense rate. With the continuous growth of revenue and the stability of long order customers in the future, there is still room for the expense rate to decline.
The component business was promoted in an orderly manner, and the industrial chain was further extended to the downstream. In March 21, the company invested in the establishment of a wholly-owned Sun company, Shuangliang Xinneng Technology (Baotou), to build a project with an annual output of 20GW components, which was started in April and is expected to be fully put into operation in 2023. The component business will fully combine the company's battery and energy-saving and water-saving customer resource advantages, form an excellent and stable cooperation ecology, and further ensure the company's silicon wafer shipment.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions: silicon wafer performance will be gradually realized from 2022, becoming a new growth curve. It is expected that the net profit attributable to the parent company will maintain a compound growth rate of 83.84% in the next three years and maintain the "buy" rating.
Risk warning: the risk that the company's capacity investment and construction is less than expected; The risk that the development of customers is less than expected; The risk of rising raw material costs and declining profitability of the company; Risks of policy changes.
