\u3000\u3 Shengda Resources Co.Ltd(000603) 612 Sunstone Development Co.Ltd(603612) )
Core view
The company released the annual report of 2021: the annual revenue was 9.458 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 61.65%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 620 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 189.64%, slightly exceeding the guidance range of 560600 million yuan in the previous notice; The net profit deducted from non parent company was 614 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 193.47%, which was also slightly higher than the guidance range of 560600 million yuan in the previous notice. The company achieved a revenue of 2.85 billion yuan in 21q4, a year-on-year increase of + 57.45% and a month on month increase of + 6.26%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 146 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 50.64% and a month on month increase of – 19.78%; The net profit deducted from non parent company was 144 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of + 38.41% and a month on month increase of – 21.31%.
The sales volume of prebaked anode increased steadily compared with the previous year. In 2021, the company’s pre baked anode (including trial production and self-produced output) was 2.0687 million tons, a year-on-year increase of + 9.18%, and the OEM output was 6100 tons; The sales of prebaked anode were 2024900 tons, with a year-on-year increase of + 5.00%, of which 643100 tons were exported, with a year-on-year increase of + 11.55%; China sold 1.3818 million tons, a year-on-year increase of + 2.21%. The increase in output is mainly due to the trial production of sotong Yunnan Aluminum phase I project in advance in the middle of the year and the formal conversion of the project to fixed assets at the end of the year.
The construction of phase II of sotong Yunnan Aluminum is progressing steadily and is expected to be put into operation in the second half of this year. Sotong Yunnan Aluminum phase I project with an annual output of Shanghai Pudong Development Bank Co.Ltd(600000) tons will be converted to fixed assets by the end of 2021. The construction of phase II production capacity of 300000 tons will be started on September 1, 2021. It is expected to be completed and put into operation in the second half of 2022. At that time, the total production capacity of the company will reach 2.82 million tons / year. In addition, if all conditions are met, sotong Yuheng project with an annual output of 350000 tons is expected to start this year. After putting into operation, the company’s pre baked anode production capacity will reach 3.17 million tons. Under the background of China’s “North aluminum moving south” and the upgrading of the supporting prebaked anode plants of foreign aluminum plants, the company is expected to rely on the platform advantages of listed enterprises, through multi-channel financing, new production capacity or horizontal merger and acquisition of stock production capacity, release at least Shanghai Pudong Development Bank Co.Ltd(600000) tons of production capacity every year in the next five years, and the total production capacity is expected to reach 5 million tons in five years.
The “C + strategy” is proposed for the first time, which is expected to develop the field of new carbon materials through strategic extension. In order to give full play to its procurement advantages in the field of petroleum coke and seize the development opportunity of new energy industry chain, the company has decided to invest in the first phase of the 200000 ton lithium ion negative electrode material integration project in Jiayuguan Jiabei Industrial Park, Gansu Province. Carbon anode materials and aluminum prebaked anode have strong connections and similarities in production raw materials, production equipment and production process. According to the promotion of Jiayuguan sotong Low Carbon Industrial Park, the company will speed up the construction progress of 770 MW photovoltaic project and 50000 tons of 200000 tons of lithium battery cathode in the first phase.
Risk tip: the construction progress of the project does not meet the expectations, and the production and sales of anode products do not meet the expectations.
Investment advice: maintain the “buy” rating.
It is estimated that the company’s revenue from 2022 to 2024 will be RMB 148.08/168.15/17.565 billion respectively, with a year-on-year growth rate of 56.6% / 13.6% / 4.5%, the net profit attributable to the parent company will be RMB 736823/853 million respectively, with a year-on-year growth rate of 18.8% / 11.7% / 3.7%, the diluted EPS will be RMB 1.60/1.79/1.85 respectively, and the corresponding PE of the current stock price is 12 / 11 / 11x respectively. Considering that the company is the only listed company in the field of commercial prebaked anodes in China, through new production capacity or acquisition of stock production capacity, the company is expected to achieve rapid expansion of production capacity and improve market share and industry voice. In addition, the company is expected to make a breakthrough in the field of new carbon materials and maintain the “buy” rating by relying on its procurement advantages in the field of petroleum coke.
