\u3000\u3 Shengda Resources Co.Ltd(000603) 128 Cts International Logistics Corporation Limited(603128) )
Event:
Cts International Logistics Corporation Limited(603128) released the annual report of 2021: in 2021, the company achieved an operating revenue of 24.668 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 75.02%, and realized a net profit attributable to the parent company of 837 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 57.74% Cts International Logistics Corporation Limited(603128) released the report for the first quarter of 2022: in 2022q1, the company achieved an operating revenue of 6.295 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 40.33%, and realized a net profit attributable to the parent company of 252 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 36.04%.
Core business revenue maintained high growth and international air transport profitability improved
In terms of core business revenue: in 2021, international air transport achieved a revenue of RMB 6.847 billion and yoy 2.0 billion 20%； International shipping achieved a revenue of 11.73 billion yuan, yoy142 million yuan 70%； Cross border e-commerce logistics achieved revenue of 3.775 billion yuan and yoy98.9 billion yuan 92%； The continuation of freight rate dividends has kept the cross-border e-commerce logistics revenue of traditional business international air and shipping and emerging business growing at a high speed.
In terms of core business operation: in 2021, international air transport completed 354400 tons of business and yoy 2.5 million tons 64%； The business volume of international shipping is 1035400 TEUs, yoy1 91%； Cross border e-commerce logistics completed 61800 tons of air transportation business, and yoy16 38%, completed 15900 TEUs of ocean shipping business, yoy218 56%, completed 17700 TEUs of China Europe train, yoy276 02%, 9300 tons of China Europe Kaban; Through preliminary business coordination, Jiacheng international achieved 105300 tons of cross-border e-commerce logistics packages throughout the year, accounting for 18% of yoy. The instability of cross-border freight supply has suppressed the business volume of traditional business, but after the merger and acquisition of Jiacheng international, cross-border e-commerce logistics has further accelerated its development speed and continued to expand its scale.
In terms of gross profit of core business: in 2021, the gross profit of international air transportation was 875 million yuan and yoy49.9 million yuan 45%, with a gross profit margin of 12.77%, a year-on-year increase of 2.5pcts. Relying on its leading position in the core airport, China trade has continuously extended its service chain, enhanced the stickiness of key customers, and improved the profitability of air transport business; The gross profit of international shipping was 736 million yuan, yoy124 million yuan 03%, with a gross profit margin of 6.27%, a year-on-year decrease of 0.52pcts; The gross profit of cross-border e-commerce logistics was 493 million yuan and yoy52 million yuan 26%, with a gross profit margin of 13.42%, a year-on-year decrease of 4.11pcts. Under the background of building new products and expanding the scale, the gross profit margin of shipping and cross-border e-commerce logistics has declined.
Q1 performance slightly exceeded expectations, waiting for the release of traffic volume after the epidemic
In 2022q1, the company realized a net profit attributable to the parent company of 252 million yuan and yoy36 million yuan 04%. Under the background of the traditional off-season of import and export trade and the restriction of the normal operation of core airports and ports due to the closure and control of the epidemic since March, with its excellent grasp of resources, the growth of international air and sea transportation has exceeded the market level, and the cross-border E-commerce logistics is also expanding rapidly driven by active development and integration. Looking forward to the whole year, after the closure and control of the epidemic, the core airports will be gradually liberalized, and the cross-border e-commerce will usher in the peak season in the middle of the year. With the continuation of the demand for replenishment of inventory in traditional businesses and the release of traffic volume, China trade is expected to obtain the business performance of stable price and increased volume.
Chain extension + increase of direct customers, long-term optimistic about cross-border logistics leading enterprises Cts International Logistics Corporation Limited(603128)
The cooperation with Eastern Air Logistics Co.Ltd(601156) , Guangzhou Jiacheng International Logistics Co.Ltd(603535) has further strengthened the control of China trade in transportation resources. With the development of Chinese brands, China trade can provide Chinese enterprises with logistics products covering all links. Looking forward to the future, in terms of traditional business, with the extension of the chain, international air and shipping is expected to comprehensively transform from booking space to multi link service provider, further improve the proportion of direct passengers and enhance the profitability of traditional business; In terms of cross-border e-commerce logistics, with the support of brand going to sea, China's cross-border e-commerce enterprises have increasing demand for full chain logistics services. China trade has established logistics cooperation with multiple e-commerce platforms and independent stations. With the promotion of M & A integration, China trade will focus on building products with core competitiveness and is expected to eventually stand out in the competition. Chain extension + direct customers increase, and the traditional business foundation is constantly consolidated. At the same time, cross-border e-commerce logistics is expected to open the second curve and open the growth space of China trade's profit and valuation.
The profit forecast and investment rating are adjusted according to the announcement. It is estimated that the operating revenue of Cts International Logistics Corporation Limited(603128) 20222024 will be 28.696 billion yuan, 30.716 billion yuan and 32.864 billion yuan respectively, and the net profit attributable to the parent company will be 1.185 billion yuan, 1.486 billion yuan and 1.670 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding PE of 12.49, 9.97 and 8.87 million yuan respectively. Maintain the "buy" rating.
Risk tips: the development of cross-border e-commerce logistics is less than expected, the risks caused by the uncertainty of cross-border e-commerce policies, the risks caused by the instability of international trade situation, the synergy effect of M & A enterprises is less than expected, the risk of repeated epidemic, intensified industry competition, air and sea disasters and other black swan events.
